Four teams remain in the quest to get to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the divisional round to advance to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs will welcome a familiar foe to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the Buffalo Bills, who topped the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The line for the AFC Championship Game opened at -1 on Sunday night and has continued to creep toward Kansas City.
In the NFC, the Washington Commanders pulled off an upset of the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday behind a spectacular performance from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will travel to face their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who advanced to the championship game with a win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as six-point favorites over the Commanders and the line has moved down a half a point since to -5.5.
Here's a look at where our team thinks you can find values in the early line before they start to move as the week goes on.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh's first bet: Chiefs -1.5 over Bills
Last week: Ravens (+1) vs. Bills. Line closed at Bills +1.5. Bills won 27-25.
Credit to Buffalo for taking advantage of Baltimore's myriad mistakes, but can you really count on another +3 turnover differential to get you through the AFC Championship game? The Bills were out-gained by 143 total yards to a sloppy Ravens outfit that finished the game with 25 points, 416 total yards and a 70% third down conversion rate. Hanging 30-plus points on the road was definitely a possibility for Baltimore. And let's not forget the officiating here, which tends to side with Mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 120 yards against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have been penalized 30 fewer times for 222 fewer yards than their opponents in their ensuing 11 playoff appearances. I'll lay it here.
Tyler Fulghum's first bet: Commanders +5.5
Last week: 6-point Teaser: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. Chiefs won 23-14. Commanders won 45-31.
I feel like this line is overvaluing the Eagles by a point or two. The Commanders have already beaten the Eagles once this season. Jayden Daniels is playing better football than Jalen Hurts. In the divisional round, the Eagles got another 200-plus rushing yard performance and were +2 in turnover margin against the Rams and still didn't cover. They almost lost the game in regulation. I picked Philly to win the NFC and I'll stand by that, but I feel like this line should respect the Commanders a bit more than it does.
Seth Walder's first bet: Bills ML +105
Last week: Commanders-Lions over 55.5 total points. Commanders won 45-31.
The Bills are just the better team.
Excluding Week 18 (when both teams rested), the Bills have a massive EPA per dropback advantage: .26 to .15. In other words, every 10 Bills passing plays are worth one point more than every 10 Chiefs passing plays. And the ground game? The exact same story: 0.07 for Buffalo, minus-0.03 for the Chiefs.
Yes, Buffalo's passing defense has been significantly worse lately, though over the course of the year these two teams have been about the same. And that's less important than offense, which is more stable from week to week than defense. In order to back the Chiefs, you have to believe in some sort of ethereal Mahomes postseason boost that I'm just not going to buy over a Bills team that has demonstrated their superiority over the course of this year.
Pamela Maldonado's first bet: Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Bills
Last week: Commanders (+8.5) vs. Lions. Line closed at Commanders +8.5. Commanders won 45-31.
Fueled by their knack for pulling out victories in nail-biting fashion, the Chiefs have mastered the art of thriving under pressure. Patrick Mahomes' brilliance in clutch moments, paired with Andy Reid's tactical genius, has routinely guided Kansas City to triumph, even when they've been outgained or seemingly outplayed. Their battle-tested playoff experience and championship DNA provide a mental edge against the Bills, who have yet to exorcise their postseason demons against Kansas City. The Chiefs should punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.
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