Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Los Angeles Chargers on "Monday Night Football."
The Eagles (8-4) have lost back-to-back games but still sit atop the NFC East.
The Chargers (8-4), in second place in the AFC West, are coming off a win over the Las Vegas Raiders, a game in which Justin Herbert broke a bone in his non-throwing hand. Herbert had surgery but is expected to play Monday.
The Eagles are 2.5-point road favorites against the Chargers.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game picks
Notable player props, bets
Jalen Hurts OVER 192.5 passing yards (-112)
Bowen: Tougher matchup for Hurts tonight versus a Chargers team that owns a top-5 defense versus the pass. I get that. However, Hurts has been more willing to throw the ball to the third level of the field recently, with 13 attempts of 20 or more air yards in his last three games. Let's bet on the Eagles to scheme some vertical throws to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in this one.
Hurts UNDER 192.5 passing yards (-112)
Maldonado: Hurts' entire profile collapses against a Chargers defense that lives in two-high shells, forces underneath throws he refuses to take and allows the fewest explosive passes in the league. Philly already punts on 31% of drives, reaches third-and-long at a top-three rate and carries its lowest implied team total of the season in this matchup. The Chargers' coverage structure suffocates exactly where Hurts wants to throw. I don't see a path to efficiency. Could be tight, but I still like the under here.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 90.5 total yards (-112)
Loza: Barkley has surprisingly gone under this number for three straight contests. His explosiveness and efficiency have both waned considerably as of late, and OT Lane Johnson's absence doesn't figure to help the situation. Meanwhile, the Chargers' run defense has given up just five runs of 20 or more yards all season. Additionally, Los Angeles has held opposing RBs (including Ashton Jeanty) to fewer than 30 receiving yards over three consecutive outings.
Barkley OVER 2.5 receptions (-114)
Walder: The Chargers are the most-zone heavy team in the NFL (73%) and they also don't blitz frequently (20%, fourth lowest). That's extremely relevant for Barkley's reception prop, because running backs catch passes at significantly higher rates when facing zone coverage and on non-blitz plays.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jalen Hurts ($15,900). Let's stay with Hurts and take the dual-threat upside. Hurts has rushed for 30 or more yards in three straight games, with at least one touchdown in two. Second-reaction plays here, plus goal-line carries.
Also in my lineup: DeVonta Smith ($8,400). Smith has seen 19 targets over his last two games. Let's look for Smith to separate from coverage on the deep overs and crossers, plus he has the catch-and-run traits to produce on underneath throws versus the Chargers defense.
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Omarion Hampton ($11,700) has the best matchup of any player in this game. I'm gonna bet on fresh legs over shaking off rust, especially after what Chicago was able to pull off against the Eagles' run defense last Friday.
Also in my lineup: A.J. Brown ($9,000) continues to lead Philadelphia's receiving corps, drawing double-digit targets in three consecutive efforts. The Bolts' secondary has been stingy, but Brown's talent and projected volume make him a start nonetheless.
Maldonado recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): A.J. Brown ($13,500) is the only true ceiling player in a low total game. His target share has surged, and he owns half of the Eagles recent red zone looks. Even if the offense stalls, volume funnels to him.
Also in my lineup: Ladd McConkey ($8,800) offers a reliable floor in a limited Chargers passing attack. His heavy slot usage gives him the cleanest path to steady targets against an Eagles defenses that forces short throws. He avoids the volatility of Quentin Johnston and the touchdown dependence of the backs.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Saquon Barkley ($14,400). For all the reasons I stated earlier in Barkley's receptions prop: if Barkley is going to be a larger-than-expected part of the passing game, then that upgrades his fantasy upside in a major way.
Also in my lineup: Quentin Johnston ($7,000). If I'm playing a DFS tournament, I want a boom-or-bust player like Johnston who has gone ice cold in recent weeks (thus making him both less expensive to fit in my lineup and, presumably, less popular of a selection). Among players with at least 200 routes run, Johnston ranks second in highest rate of deep fades and go routes (23%).
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Four straight Eagles games have gone under the total.
The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in prime time games under Jim Harbaugh (6-3 outright).
The Eagles are 13-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Nick Sirianni (19-6 ATS including playoffs).
The Chargers are 19-10 ATS since hiring Jim Harbaugh last season, the best record in the NFL. The Eagles are 18-11 ATS, tied with the Lions for the second-best record in that span.