ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you are one of the 0.8% of entries to make it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.
More entries were knocked out in Week 14 than in any other week this season. A whopping 45% of remaining entries were knocked out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, as they were one of the biggest favorites that had barely been selected all season. If you had the foresight to fade the Buccaneers, you are likely sitting pretty in your group.
No team this week is anywhere near as popular as Tampa Bay was last week. The San Francisco 49ers (26%), Philadelphia Eagles (25%), and Jacksonville Jaguars (21%)are the most-selected teams as of Wednesday morning, but with all three teams relatively available, it's unlikely one of those teams consolidates crowd choice like the Buccaneers. All three are strong picks, though the 49ers are the top one of the three if available.
With only four weeks left, it's never been more important to map out the rest of your season. Make sure you have a team available in each of the last few weeks. Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet is a great resource for that.
1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
The Colts have as dire a quarterback situation as any team in the NFL, starting either a banged up Riley Leonard or a 44-year old Philip Rivers who has not played in five years. As a result, the Seahawks are now the biggest betting favorites of the week. With so few users having Seattle available, that makes them the top choice as a double-digit favorite at almost no ownership. The only other week to potentially use Seattle, if available, is Week 17 in Carolina.
Mike Clay chance to win: 79% (T-fourth)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 72% (fifth)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Seahawks -13.5 (-950 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 0.5% selected (seventh)
Seahawks remaining schedule: Colts, Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
2. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The 49ers are the biggest favorites of the week according to ESPN Analytics, and they won't have overwhelmingly high selection. Out of the three double-digit favorites, the 49ers have the least future value. Each of their last three opponents have winning records, though they visit the Colts next week, which could potentially be useful. While the Titans have actually covered four of their past five games including an upset win in Cleveland last week, they still grade out as the worst team in the NFL, and are the best team to fade in Eliminator Challenge.
Mike Clay chance to win: 86% (second)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 83% (first)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: 49ers -12.5 (-950 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 26% selected (first)
49ers remaining schedule: Titans, at Colts, Bears, Seahawks
3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Raiders are currently on pace to get the No. 1 pick, so any time they are on the road, their opponent is almost always a strong choice. The Eagles have lost three straight, but none of those teams were nearly as bad as the Raiders, who have lost seven straight. Two of the Eagles next three games are against Marcus Mariota and the Washington Commanders, so the Eagles have some future value, but none of those games are as good a spot as this week.
Mike Clay chance to win: 85% (third)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 76% (second)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Eagles -11.5 (-850 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 25% selected (second)
Eagles remaining schedule: Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, Commanders
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Jets)
The Jaguars are the biggest favorites this week according to Mike Clay's model. They have been playing their best football all season lately, winning four straight games by an average margin of 17.8 points per game. The Jets showed signs of life last month, but their three wins have come against the Browns, the Falcons, and the Joe Flacco Bengals. The biggest negative against the Jaguars is that they still have a home game against the Titans in Week 18 remaining. However, Week 18 is the least important week to save teams for, considering each team often has different motivations in the final week.
Mike Clay chance to win: 89% (first)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 77% (second)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Jaguars -12.5 (-700 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected (third)
Jaguars remaining schedule: Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
5. Chicago Bears (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Bears are a tier below the teams above them in terms of win probability, but they are still 7.5-point favorites. The Bears also have zero future value after this week, as they could be underdogs in each of their final three games. Shedeur Sanders had a strong Week 14, but the Browns still lost at home to the lowly Titans to fall to 3-10. The Bears are 9-2 in their past 11 games with their only losses coming on the road against the Ravens and Packers.
Mike Clay chance to win: 69% (sixth)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 73% (fourth)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Bears -7.5 (-395 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected (fourth)
Bears remaining schedule: Browns, Packers, at 49ers, Lions
6. Houston Texans (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The Texans' rating has skyrocketed during their five-game winning streak, which included wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Colts and Chiefs. They are now tied for seventh in Super Bowl odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost five straight, allowing at least 40 points in three of those five losses. The biggest knock on the Texans is that they host the Raiders next week, which will make them one of the biggest favorites of the week. They also host the Colts in Week 18. If you have other options in Week 16 you are comfortable with, the Texans are a viable play, but if not, they could be worth saving for next week.
Mike Clay chance to win: 79% (T-fourth)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71% (fifth)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Texans -9.5 (-575 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected (fifth) •
Texans remaining schedule: Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts