Week 15's slate of games wraps up with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers on "Monday Night Football."
The Steelers (+105) are right there with the Baltimore Ravens (-125) as the AFC North favorites after upsetting the Ravens last week.
The Dolphins, seemingly out of the hunt a month ago, have run off four straight wins but are still long shots to make the playoffs at 300-1.
Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite at home Monday night.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Ben Solak offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Game picks
Dolphins +3
Maldonado: The automatic assumption is Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather... go with the Steelers. Easy. Miami has already preemptively solved the cold problem by removing Tua from the equation. The Dolphins have gone full run-first, low-variance, shortened-the-game mode, and have won four straight doing exactly that. Fewer passes, more Achane and Wright, bleed the clock, limit mistakes. Cold and wind only reinforce that plan. Pittsburgh needs pressure and early disruption to create separation and that's harder in a compressed game.
Dolphins ML (+160)
Solak: The renaissance of the Dolphins' running game down the back half of this season has been a joy to watch. Tua has attempted 23 or fewer passes in four consecutive games for the first time ever in Mike McDaniel's tenure as the Dolphins have morphed into a run-first offensive approach that creates explosives behind an improved offensive line and with a gamut of talented ball carriers. The Steelers' run defense isn't a particularly impressive unit (27th in EPA per rush faced) and is particularly weak at linebacker, where the Dolphins attack best. I am not as worried about fading Tua in a cold weather game now that the Dolphins rely on him so much less. They have the better unit on both sides of the ball in this game.
Notable player props, bets
Kenneth Gainwell over 3.5 receptions (-116)
Bowen: Gainwell has six or more receptions in three of his last four games. An underneath outlet for Aaron Rodgers, look for Gainwell to hit this over.
Jaylen Waddle longest reception OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: Miami has found success leaning on the ground game. Still, Waddle has continued to collect deep balls, recording 12 catches of 22 or more yards (T-WR8 with CeeDee Lamb) thus far into 2025 (including while chasing points in the team's most recent loss versus Baltimore back in Week 9). Meanwhile, the Steelers secondary has, not only, given up the second-most receptions to boundary receivers, but also 14 grabs of 22 or more yards, including three to Zay Flowers last Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa might struggle in the cold, but Waddle is good for at least one deep catch.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): De'Von Achane ($19,500). Let's take Achane because of the volume -- 23 or more touches in three of his last four games -- and the explosive play upside. Achane has 35 rushes of 10 or more yards, tied for most in the league.
Also in my lineup: Jaylen Warren ($9,000). I'm sticking with the running game on Warren -- and the scoring upside. Warren has a touchdown in three straight games.
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): De'Von Achane ($19,200). Miami should continue to lean on Achane's dual-threat appeal, especially given the chilly temps and windy conditions at Pittsburgh. Achane has averaged over 22 fantasy points per game (clearing 16 fantasy points in each game) since Week 7. The Steelers will, obviously, be hurting with T.J. Watt out of the lineup.
Also in my lineup: Steelers Defense ($6,000). Tua is tied with Geno Smith for the most picks thrown (14) on the season. He's good for at least one INT on the road and in the cold.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Dolphins have lost 13 straight games when the kickoff temperature is 40 degrees or colder (2-11 ATS), including playoffs. Temperatures are expected to be in the high teens, with possible light snow.
The Dolphins are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against losing teams (4-2 ATS this season).
The Steelers are 0-3 outright and ATS in prime time this season.