This game feels like a song you already know the chorus to but the verse keeps changing. Same teams, same stakes, but turned all the way up.
The Oklahoma Sooners and Alabama Crimson Tide meet again, this time as the opening act of the College Football Playoff, and the remix matters more than the original. The first track ended with a 23-21 Sooners win in Tuscaloosa but the sequel drops in Norman, and the tempo is different.
This matchup is pressure versus patience, disruption versus control and how thin margins sound different when the volume is cranked. Think live recording. Every mistake echoes, every adjustment is audible and by the end, one team stays on beat to advance, while the other drifts just enough to lose rhythm and pack it up and go home.
Here's a look at both the Crimson Tide and the Sooners and my prediction for the first game of the first round of the CFP.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
College Football Playoff first-round game
No. 9 Alabama -1.5 at No. 8 Oklahoma
Friday, Dec. 19, 8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Records: Alabama 10-3, 4-2 vs. AP teams; Oklahoma 10-2, 5-1 vs. AP teams
Opening line: Alabama -1.5, O/U 41.5
Money line: Alabama (-118); Oklahoma (-102)
Over/under: 40.5 (O -108, U -112)
Alabama: the floor is high, the margin is still thin
Alabama looks better on paper than the way it plays when the game gets tight. QB Ty Simpson can throw, but the run game has been -- and still is -- a problem. With the 76th rushing grade and 68th run-block grade, this isn't an offense that dictates terms. RB Jam Miller returning does help but mostly in that he can assist in keeping drives alive, but his return doesn't flip trench math.
Bama's offense works best when things are clicking. When they aren't, that's when turnovers show up, fourth-down decisions get aggressive and red zone trips fail to produce six points. We already saw that play against Oklahoma once, and again against Georgia when Alabama scored just one touchdown in the SEC title game.
Defensively, Alabama is a bit of a strange one. The coverage grades are elite (top-five in the FBS), but the pass rush is near the bottom. If Bama doesn't make quarterbacks panic because of a lack of pressure, that allows plays and drives to be stretched, which is how opponents can score without needing efficiency.
The path for Alabama to advance in the playoff is narrow. Win the turnover margin, stay patient, let Miller stabilize early downs and avoid obvious passing situations. If Bama wins, it's controlled and close. If things slip even a little, the whole thing starts to wobble.
Oklahoma: disruptive, not dominant
Oklahoma's defensive numbers look strong, but let's be honest: The Sooners haven't faced many truly competent offenses this season. When they did, in back-to-back weeks against Ole Miss and Tennessee, they gave up 431 and 456 total yards, respectively, with the Vols throwing for nearly 400 yards.
What OU does well is get in the backfield with disruption. The pass rush is real: ranking in the top-15 in pressures, with 48 total sacks and 230 pressures. That shows up regardless of opponent. Even in those Ole Miss and Tennessee games, OU still affected quarterbacks and forced difficult throws.
Offensively, Oklahoma is limited. The efficiency grades are poor, which means they don't want shootouts. QB John Mateer needs to extend plays with his legs and take points when they're there.
Oklahoma can be dangerous in specific matchups. Against teams that protect well and stretch the field, the defense can be stressed. Against teams that struggle with pressure and rely on staying on script, OU's style plays up.
The Sooners may not be a complete team, but they are a situationally strong one. And in this matchup, those situations still line up.
Betting considerations: OVER 40.5
This is an aggressive correction. The first meeting saw a total of 46, making this a 5.5-point total drop. That's the market trying to account for everything that went wrong for Alabama at once: turnovers, short fields, a missed field goal and a pick-six. Then add in the Georgia game, where Bama scored just seven points and you can see how we got here, a diminished perception of the Tide's offense.
The problem is that the correction didn't just price in mistakes, it priced in the assumption that this matchup naturally suppresses scoring. That's where it goes too far.
Bama moved the ball against the Sooners in the November matchup with over 400 total yards and 42 pass attempts with sustained drives downfield. The issue for the Tide was self-sabotage, indicators of volatility. OU's defense isn't a true control unit, as proved by Ole Miss and Tennessee. Sure, the Sooners can create pressure but pressure doesn't always kill scoring.
Alabama picking up tempo is a plausible adjustment here, increasing total possessions and variance, which matters far more for the total than the side. Add Miller into the equation, and that raises Bama's floor without fixing everything.
At 40.5, the over just needs regression to the norm. The market corrected hard for Alabama's mistakes and may have pushed the total lower than the matchup actually warrants.
Who wins? As a prediction, I'll go with Simpson & Co. (-118 ML). Bama moved the ball at will in the first meeting and lost because of extreme mistakes that don't usually stack twice. If the Tide are even marginally cleaner, the underlying yardage edge and added stability of Miller are enough to flip a one-possession game.