James Madison at Oregon closes Saturday's College Football Playoff slate, with a trip to the Orange Bowl against Texas Tech on the line.
This matchup is about timing. The Dukes play with a chess clock -- deliberate, controlled and built to limit possessions -- while Oregon is comfortable playing with a shot clock. The Ducks can speed it up, slow it down and adjust without panic.
Same stakes -- advancing to the next match or packing to go home -- but two different ways of managing the game. That contrast is what defines this matchup.
Here's a look at each team with wagers to consider at the end.
College Football Playoff First Round Game
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon -20.5
Saturday, Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m., TNT, HBO Max
Records: James Madison 12-1, 0-0 vs. AP teams; Oregon 11-1, 2-1 vs. AP teams
Opening Line: Oregon -21.5, O/U 51.5
Money line: James Madison (+1000); Oregon (-1800)
Over/Under: 46.5 (O -108, U -112)
James Madison: dangerous on script, limited when it breaks
James Madison is really good at being a rush-first team by design. The Dukes run it more than 40 times a game (which is 10th most in the country), average 5.6 yards per carry and have the second-best rushing grade. When that's working, they're annoying to play against because the drives are long and the clock keeps moving. So for opponents, possessions are limited.
Alonza Barnett III is a huge part of that. His legs are a weapon, a legit rushing threat with double-digit rushing scores and mobility that keeps defenses honest. But there is a ceiling. Barnett's passing EPA sits around average. When JMU is forced to rely on his arm, efficiency drops. We saw that clearly against Louisville: four sacks and just 102 passing yards. The run game was contained, the game script flipped and the offense stalled. That's the blueprint.
Defensively, the team is real. Say what you want about strength of schedule, but the grades say top-tier coverage, a strong pass rush, a knack for forcing interceptions and they tackle well in space. That's how they can hang around early because they can frustrate teams.
They might not be explosive by default, but they are disciplined and well-coached. But against teams that can stay patient and force the Dukes off script, the margin shows up late.
Oregon: designed for adjustment
The Ducks are a balanced team in the truest sense, graded fourth in passing and first in rushing, aka traits that show up weekly. If teams sell out to stop the run, Oregon is comfortable with quarterback Dante Moore. If the passing game stalls, the Ducks are more than happy to lean on the ground with running back Noah Whittington.
That's why the wide receiver injuries matter. Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Evan Stewart have all missed time with Moore and Bryant now trending toward returning. Oregon has been efficient without them but getting those players back, even if limited, widens the margin for error. Defenses can't step as aggressively and that makes everything else easier for Oregon.
Oregon averages 5.7 yards per carry (third most), touches across multiple backs and doesn't rely on a single play to carry the load. Moore doesn't force throws; he protects the flow and takes what's available.
Defensively, Oregon tackles well, covers well and stays in check. This is a team that is in control on both sides. When games get weird, Oregon adjusts, stays patient and waits for opponents to blink. Over four quarters, that balance shows.
Betting consideration: James Madison +21.5 (-115)
The risk-reward balance has shifted. The opener was 50.5, the best bet on the board. But everyone saw that and now the total is 46.5. The UNDER still makes sense, but losing four full points of value requires a cleaner game.
What hasn't changed is the game shape.
James Madison is structured to compress games with its run-heavy approach, and a defense that tightens after halftime, allowing just 4.7 points per second half, second best. That profile naturally bleeds clocks and shrinks margins. Oregon is perfectly comfortable playing that way. The Ducks don't need tempo or explosives to win this game and don't need to chase separation, especially with a tougher opponent in Texas Tech on deck.
That's where +21.5 becomes more attractive than the total.
The spread survives more scenarios, living through early Oregon points, one short field or even through a late score. Under 50.5 was ideal, but the underdog spread is now more forgiving. It's fading excess.