The New England Patriots can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win or tie Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens. (A Houston Texans loss or tie earlier in the day would also get them in, as would a loss or tie by the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night.) Meanwhile, Baltimore is in a tight battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers for AFC North supremacy.
The AFC East-leading Patriots hold a one-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, who defeated them in Week 15. After falling to the Steelers two weeks ago, the Ravens rebounded with a shutout win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Baltimore is a three-point favorite Sunday night at home against New England.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado and Eric Moody offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to:
Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bet
Patriots money line (+142)
Maldonado: This comes down to pressure response. Drake Maye has excelled in every game over the past two months despite facing pressure-heavy looks, while Baltimore has struggled to turn defensive pressure into negative outcomes. The Ravens generate modest sack and turnover production relative to how often they face obvious passing downs, but in a game in which both quarterbacks will be challenged, the Patriots have shown stability under stress, making the points valuable.
Notable player props, bets
Field Yates breaks down why he's low on Lamar Jackson in Week 16.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 33.5 rushing yards (-115)
Loza: Jackson's average rushing yards are down significantly this year, dropping from nearly 54 per game in 2024 to 30 per contest this season. He has cleared 33 rushing yards in just two of seven games since returning from injury in Week 9. That doesn't figure to change versus the Patriots in Week 16. New England's defense gave up 48 rushing yards to Josh Allen last week, but it took a season-high 11 attempts for Allen to hit that total. For context, Jackson is averaging 5.5 rushing attempts per contest. Allen aside, the Patriots' run defense has held rushers to the 12th-lowest yards per carry (4.1) and opposing QBs to 18 rushing yards per outing. If Jackson wants to beat New England, he's going to have to put the ball in the air.
TreVeyon Henderson 80-plus rushing/receiving yards (+113)
Bowen: Henderson has posted 80 or more total yards in five straight games. He has home run ability as a runner and the vision to produce on screens and unders in the passing game. Let's bet on this number to hit again versus the Baltimore defense.
Henderson longest rush OVER 13.5 yards (-120)
Moody: Henderson is one of the most explosive runners in the league and has cleared this line in three of his past five games. The rookie has four rushing touchdowns of 50-plus yards, the most in a season in Patriots franchise history and tied for the most by a rookie in league history, alongside Saquon Barkley (2018) and Hall of Famer Lenny Moore (1956). The Ravens' defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate over the past three weeks, while the Patriots' offensive line ranks eighth in run block win rate.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Eric Moody reacts to TreVeyon Henderson's nice fantasy game vs. the Bills.
Bowen's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye ($16,200) has thrown for 250-plus yards in six of his past seven games with multiple touchdown throws in four. Plus, he rushed for two scores in the Week 15 game versus Buffalo. He gives you some dual-threat upside in the lineup.
Also in my lineup: Keaton Mitchell ($3,000). Let's take the value and the big-play upside of Mitchell in this one. Mitchell has four carries of 10 or more yards in his past two games, with at least six carries in each.
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): TreVeyon Henderson ($14,400). Rhamondre Stevenson is still stealing opportunities from Henderson, but the rookie has edged out the vet in terms of snaps and production. Coming off a season-high performance (30.1 FPTS), Henderson should get plenty of run at Baltimore. His pass-catching numbers could surprise, given that the Ravens' defense has allowed the third-most grabs and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
Also in my lineup: Mack Hollins ($4,800) led all Patriots pass catchers with eight looks in Week 15 and has seen at least six opportunities in three of his past five outings. While his production has been spotty, Hollins is a solid value in a gettable matchup against a Ravens secondary that has surrendered the eighth-most yards to boundary receivers (1,549).
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Lamar Jackson ($15,900). New England plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, and Jackson has averaged 8.2 yards per pass with 15 yards per completion against man. Even in lower volume games, Jackson's efficiency and rushing equity keeps him alive for a multi-touchdown game. At home, he still carries the strongest raw point path.
Also in my lineup: Drake Maye ($10,800) has upside baked in. He has scored at least 15 fantasy points in every game over the past two months and now has designed red zone rushing usage. The Ravens limit passing scores, but Maye's legs protect him from game-script failure. Maye has a safe floor.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS on the road and 3-0 ATS as road underdogs this season.
The Ravens are 0-3 ATS in their past three home games and 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games. They are 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.
The Ravens are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.