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Expectations are low for Super Eagles at AFCON thanks to Eric Chelle's bizarre selections

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If Nigeria's announcement of a large, unwieldy 54-man provisional squad just two weeks before the Africa Cup of Nations was meant to baffle, it did that, and the final squad is also a head-scratcher.

Trying to decipher coach Eric Chelle's intentions on the basis of that selection proved somewhat daunting, but the final squad decluttered some of that confusion... A bit.

It did offer some inkling into the direction of the coach's thoughts, but some major questions remain ahead of the African showpiece and expectations are not high.

What did we learn from the final list, though?

The rebuild is in progress

After reaching the last AFCON final, there were hopes that this Nigeria team would go on to do some good things. But then failing to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup dashed those hopes, and it became clear that a squad refresh was needed.

Hired in the thick of World Cup qualifying, with a mandate to rescue the already charred chestnuts from the fire, Chelle barely had enough time to try new players.

Now-injured Benjamin Fredricks, the one significant new addition who broke into the team and instantly established himself, happened by accident rather than design.

And the instant impact the 20-year-old had in his short stint with the team, provided ample proof that more such additions are sorely needed, especially with question marks over the form of many of the current squad.

AFCON presents the coach with the opportunity to start the process and he appears to have grabbed it with both hands, with the call up of five new players, four of whom are the right side of 20 - Ryan Alebiosu (23), Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (21), Salim Fago (22) and Tochukwu Nnadi (22).

Alebiosu has become a defensive stalwart for Blackburn Rovers since joining this past summer, and provides cover for the absence of Ola Aina and Fredricks.

Former junior international Tochukwu Nnadi and Ebenezer Akinsamiro, who was playing in an academy in Nigeria just two years ago before joining Inter Milan, who loaned him to Pisa, bring energy and craft to the midfield.

Salim Fago, despite playing in somewhat obscure club in Croatia, is seen as a promising future forward prospect.

Usman Mohammed is the head-scratching outlier of the five. At 31 - which makes him older than every member of the current squad - he is certainly not the future. And since playing at cadet level, and the Olympics in 2016, he has not exactly been in any radar until now. It will be interesting to hear Chelle's explanation for including him in the squad in the twilight of his career.

The Okoye-shaped elephant in the room

One big question that followed the squad announcement was the exclusion of Udinese goalkeeper Maduka Okoye. He had returned to the squad recently after serving out a betting-related suspension.

With Stanley Nwabali's recent gaffes during World Cup qualifying, Okoye was touted to potentially regain his place as first choice keeper, a position he held during the Nations Cup in 2021 before an error that proved fatal to the Super Eagles in the quarterfinals against Tunisia.

A recent injury to Nwabali seemed to solidify the position that he could sneak it. However, it has emerged that the decision to exclude him was the result of certain conditions received by the NFF from his club before they would release him, conditions the NFF were not prepared to accept, according to an official.

Although the official did tell ESPN that Udinese informed the federation they were willing to release the player in the event of an injury, suggesting the extent of Nwabali's injury could open the door to Okoye being re-invited.

Productivity is rewarded

Tolu Arokodare earned instant praise for his performance at the Unity Cup, where he looked like he could be the perfect foil for Victor Osimhen after so many false flags.

And when he added a goal during qualifying, it looked for all the world like he had got the spot on lockdown. But a series of lukewarm performances, including the World Cup playoffs against Congo DR where he was yanked off in extra time after coming on as a second half substitute, did not bode well for his chances.

Especially not when his direct rival Akor Adams has not just looked much better, but has proven to be more efficient. Arokodare has also struggled to find his feet in the Premier League with Wolverhampton Wanderers.

By contrast, Paul Onuachu, who also endured a torrid time in England, has been rewarded for a new lease of life in Turkey, where his rediscovered his scoring touch has regained him favour with the national team.

Chelle's message appears clear enough: Produce, you're in. Otherwise, you're out.

Rare for expectations to be so low

It is not often that Nigeria, perennial AFCON favourites, travel to the tournament with expectations of triumph at rock bottom levels. This is one of those rare occasions.

Morale appears to have been sapped, not just from the team, but from fans following back-to-back failures to qualify for the World Cup, and confidence in the team has sunk to levels of apathy that may take more than even AFCON victory to revive.

While the retirement of captain William Troost-Ekong on its own may not have been that big of a loss, as he had lost his starting place anyway, it is the combination of factors that has left fans uncertain.

Also missing is Ola Aina, who has returned from injury too late to make the squad. And then there is Fredricks, whose presence effectively kept Troost-Ekong on the bench.

But there is more. Goalkeeper Nwabali has also been injured and is reported to not be fully fit going into the tournament, and Nigerians have a simmering distrust of Francis Uzoho despite his rejuvenated season in Cyprus.

The general consensus across the country is that the team would be lucky to make it past the quarterfinals in Morocco.

Speaking of Troost-Ekong...

The former Nigeria captain announced his international retirement days after being named in the provisional squad, begging the question of whether or not the coach was not informed of his intentions before the provisional list was sent in.

But multiple player sources confirmed to ESPN that Troost-Ekong had informed the squad, including team officials, in the dressing room after the qualifiers, that he would be retiring and would not take part at AFCON.

Apparently, the coach went ahead to include his name in the list so as not to upstage his announcement, said an NFF official to ESPN: "Coach wanted to give him the respect of announcing his retirement.

"If he had been left out of the list, people would have said he was forced to retire. But he had already informed everybody in the dressing room that he would announce his retirement, so his name was put on the list until he could announce it by himself."

That was a subtle sleight of hand from Chelle, and is just the sort to endear him to his squad.

Local players will feel disappointed

Soon after Chelle was hired, one of his first visits was to the African Nations Championship (CHAN) team, coached at the time by Daniel Ogunmodede and Fidelis Ilechukwu.

The coach spent time with the team, assuring them he would keep an eye on them with the potential for getting call-ups to the main squad. Chelle also spent time travelling around league venues watching domestic league matches as he prepared for the domestic-based international competition.

He led them to the tournament, where they suffered heavy losses to Sudan and Senegal on their way to a group stage crashout. That result appears to have had consequences for domestic league players.

While some of them were named in the provisional squad, not a single player made it to the final list. It is a continuing trend of domestic league players failing to make the grade at senior international level.

Stephen Keshi was the only coach in recent years to take a significant number of domestic league players to AFCON, after spending about a year pruning nearly 200 players to six.

Of that six only two, Godfrey Oboabona and Sunday Mba, played significant minutes at the 2013 tournament that the Super Eagles won. On this evidenced it might be a while before that happens again.