Drafting a player just in time for him to rebound after a bad season can help you win a fantasy baseball league.
For 2019, this won't apply to names like Corey Seager and Jimmy Nelson, who barely played or didn't play in 2018. That's too easy. Instead, these players who fell flat in 2018 -- from established stars to forgotten sleepers -- could have bigger things in store.
Top names
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
Left shoulder injury revealed before offseason surgery
The Kraken drowned at the plate in 2018 (.186/.291/.406, .304 wOBA), with a .197 average on balls in play and a 19.2 percent infield fly ball rate.
Sanchez underwent surgery to remove bothersome shoulder tissue, which reportedly has been bugging him since late 2017. A righty hitter bothered by his front shoulder probably won't square up many pitches, which might explain the popup surge.
Despite that slump, Statcast numbers reveal he still scorched opposing pitchers.
Barring spring setbacks, Sanchez, 26, deserves a place in the conversation with J.T. Realmuto for the No. 1 fantasy catcher and might wind up as the better value pick.
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Back, oblique injuries
The super-prospect who tore up the league in his 2015 debut has averaged just 109.5 games played and 2.5 stolen bases in each of his past two seasons.
Give him one more shot. While back injuries can recur, it hasn't been an issue this spring, and he underwent surgery to fix a deviated septum. According to the Houston Chronicle, Correa said his breathing, fitness and sleep quality showed immediate improvement.
At just 24 years old, Correa already boasts three seasons of at least a 123 wRC+ and 11.0+ BB%. His 66 homers from 2015 to 2017 led his position. Health should bring more steals, but even if not, he still could enjoy his best year yet as at least a four-category star -- likely at the cheapest draft-day price of his career, several rounds cheaper than other coveted shortstops.
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Left shoulder inflammation
Bryant had launched just nine homers before landing on the disabled list in June last season and, after missing 51 games over two DL stints, slid to a career-low .834 OPS at season's end. Luckily, he's avoided structural damage and surgery, remaining on track for Opening Day.
Despite his imposing 6-foot-5, 230-pound build, Bryant is a safer bet to rebound in OBP leagues (career 11.9 BB%, 23.8 K%), but the 27-year-old has never dipped below a 125 wRC+ and started his career with three straight 150-plus-game seasons. Renewed shoulder strength could go a long way toward helping his exit velocity and, in turn, sustain his high BABIP (lifetime .345).
Bryant would pay off handsomely in Round 3 with .300, 30-HR, 100-run potential.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Recurring back issues, neck/shoulder
Kershaw's 2.73 ERA was hardly awful, but anyone who picked him as high as No. 1 overall last year may disagree. He logged 175 innings or fewer for the third straight season due to recurring back injuries, this time a lumbar herniated disc. He saw his K/9 dip below 10 for the first time since 2013 and endured a nearly 2 mph dip in fastball velocity that made his slider more vulnerable.
Physical problems could easily resurface for Kershaw, who turns 31 in March, due to his drop-and-drive motion. He's worked on cleaning up the balance in that delivery, though, and has trimmed down to increase flexibility.
On the bright side, now that he'll cost less, his stats and innings could be easier to replace if he's sidelined again. More than ever, I'll probably find myself taking a shot on him and keeping fingers crossed he can offer something sniffing the 2014 to 2017 form (1.99 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.4 BB/9) that put him in the Round 1 discussion.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
Poor mechanics, age
A .284 batting average normally deserves praise. Unfortunately, considering Votto had topped .313 in nine of his previous 10 seasons, we worry ... and he only left the yard 12 times, a career low.
Despite his absurd feat of not hitting one infield fly ball, Votto told The Cincinnati Enquirer he suspects his mechanics were off. Evidence: He led the majors in Statcast's Sweet Spot Percentage (45.9), which measures "how often a batter produces a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees," putting him in solid position for a home run.
Even with uncertainty surrounding his skills and durability, the 35-year-old doesn't need to climb back to 30 homers. Returning to a .300 clip with his usual .400 OBP will do enough to separate him from other almost-elite first basemen. You can find power just about anywhere now, anyway, which continues to elevate Votto's profile.
Possible bargains
Wil Myers, 3B/OF, San Diego Padres
Oblique, foot injuries
Myers had done his best to shed an injury-prone label, posting a 28-homer, 28-steal 2016 and a 30-homer, 20-steal 2017 before his body betrayed him in 2018. Such a skill set is rare among third-base-eligible players, though, so not even his checkered health record will keep many fantasy drafters from paying up.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
Fractured right elbow
Following a .327/.426/.500 line over his first 14 games of 2018, a gruesome injury cost Andrus two months. After he returned in June, he would finish the season quietly (.245/.289/.347 with five steals and four homers), missing the power and steals aggressiveness that allowed him to break out in 2017.
The 30-year-old hadn't stolen fewer than 21 bases in any of his previous nine seasons and, with full strength back in his dominant arm, he should return to the double-digit homer plateau.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Groin surgery, thigh infection
Abreu didn't tank, but he played just five games after Aug. 20. The 32-year-old is set for more work as designated hitter, which could mitigate any extra rest he might need as he ages. Mark a 30-homer, 100-RBI pace in Sharpie ... OK, only in pen, but do so with gusto.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Washington Nationals
Knee injury
From 2015-2017, Dozier led second basemen with 104 homers and 311 runs. His pull and fly ball tendencies have always hurt his average, but in last year's slump, he blamed playing through a knee injury which sapped his lower-body strength.
Luckily, Nationals Park remains one of the friendliest confines for offense, ranking third in our MLB Park Factors in runs and fifth for homers last year.
Dozier's upcoming 32nd birthday warns about possible steals downside, but in Dave Martinez's first year as manager, Washington ranked fifth with 119 swipes. Volume alone could preserve Dozier's attractive HR-SB combo.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Hip surgery
Posey's already questionable power cratered, likely the result of the ailing hip that eventually ended his season with an August procedure. He expects to be ready for Opening Day, though, and with continued physical maintenance via reps at first base, the soon-to-be 32-year-old (career .306/.375/.465) should easily finish as a top-10 backstop.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Recovery from offseason knee surgery
Murphy played only 91 games in 2018 but slashed .315/.346/.498 after returning to action in the second half, jolted by a trade to the Cubs. Sadly, any potential discount on the career .299/.344/.458 veteran vanished when he won the home park lottery with Coors Field.
Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Tumultuous exit from Houston, bad luck
Giles (4.65 ERA) punched himself and fantasy managers in the face through his struggles and tension with the Astros.
With Toronto, however, he finished strong, converting all 14 save chances and notching a 1.13 ERA across his final 16 innings. His 3.08 FIP, 9.5 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 say he deserved better.
He may become trade deadline fodder but could still help with a No. 1 closer performance for a few months.
Worth chasing
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Hairline toe fracture, migraines, wrist injury
Perhaps the biggest risk-reward pick on this list, Buxton failed to build on a 2017 breakout that included 16 homers and 29 stolen bases. Can you work around his poor plate discipline for 30-30 upside? I can, if I can get him in the late rounds -- likely the case in most mixed leagues -- though the need for speed might force you to reach a bit for a possible championship-clinching prize.
Domingo Santana, OF, Seattle Mariners
Managerial decisions
Santana followed his 30-homer, 15-steal breakthrough in 2017 with a dud, fueled in part by managerial decisions, poor defense and worse luck surrounding his strikeout rate, which topped 29 percent for his fourth straight season. The retooling Mariners will give the 26-year-old a chance to repeat his prior elite season and prove he belongs in their long-term plans.
One year after Santana burned them at "popular sleeper" prices, investors can easily and frugally dive back in.
Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Frayed rotator cuff that required surgery
That injury drained 139 points from Lamb's slugging percentage, but Lamb averaged 29.5 homers, 98 RBIs and 85 runs scored from 2016-2017.
Maybe he won't reach those heights post-procedure, but his 2018 disappearing act will allow us to find out at a clearance price. He'll even add eligibility at first base by replacing Paul Goldschmidt. Draft him for his superb work against righties (.354 career wOBA, .250 versus southpaws) and see if he can do more.
Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Recovery from leg surgery, hamstring injury, poor conditioning
Sano managed 13 homers in 71 games last season, but the hacker fell below the Mendoza Line. The 6-foot-4, 262-pounder's pop means less in today's HR-soaked fantasy landscape, but if he's forgotten in the late rounds, give him a whirl, especially if his spring work looks inspired.
Feeling lucky?
Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
Second straight year with significant, fluky injury absence
Bumgarner's significant injuries have been fluky: He crashed in a dirt bike accident in 2017 and was struck on his pitching hand during a tuneup in last year's spring training. He's worked around those with erratic velocity and back-to-back seasons with FIPs close to 4.00, despite ERAs of 3.32 or better.
His sweeping across-the-body mechanics could slip up if his shoulder is still hindering him. Though the surgery last year fixed his pinkie, he may not have had proper grip on some pitches, which could've limited his movement and fastball effectiveness. (In fairness, he's almost always worked with a below-average fastball giddyup.)
While name value will keep him relatively expensive -- not much cheaper than safer strikeout sources -- Bumgarner could stand out as an ideal gamble for a low-end SP2 with SP1 upside if he rediscovers the bite on his pitches. Keep an eye on how they're moving in March.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Torn bicep ended season, age
Miggy was vintage in his first 38 games of 2018 (.299/.395/.448) but then tore his biceps and missed the rest of the season. Maybe the 36-year-old is a more cost-effective dart than Votto, but he's already shown more weakness with power, failing to reach 20 homers in two of his previous three seasons.
Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
Hard contact ... and pitching for the Rockies
Though Colorado's pitching culture is suddenly competent, anyone working in Denver carries risk. Hopefully those who draft him can focus on road starts and hope he eventually becomes a must-start. Gray (career 9.5 K/9, 3.68 FIP) could be a league-winning pick if a few things go right, but he still has plenty of potential pitfalls with his environment and skills.
Sonny Gray, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Burned up in the Bronx
Something -- OK, that 6.98 home ERA -- tells us he didn't like playing at Yankee Stadium. At least he's still a fine bet for a grounder rate over 50 percent.
Maybe moving to the National League (even hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park) and reuniting with pitching coach Derek Johnson, who spun gold from the Brewers' staff last year and mentored Gray at Vanderbilt, could rekindle the 3.55 ERA form from 2017?
More rebound candidates: Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals; Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago Cubs; Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays