Regardless of what your fantasy baseball league's format might be, when it comes time to draft your team -- and specifically, your pitching staff -- if you end up with any of the top-tier options (Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber) you're going to be very happy. After all, unless you're playing in a league with some sort of bizarro way-out-there scoring system, these elite arms are going to be the first hurlers off the board.
Having said that, there are certain pitchers who one might expect to have better results in a points league as compared to category-based scoring systems. In fact, comparing my points league rankings to that of my colleagues Tristan H. Cockcroft (H2H Categories) and Eric Karabell (Roto), there are several names that jump out at me as being way more recommended on my list than theirs.
So, let's take a look at a few of these outliers and see if we can't figure out what exactly makes them unexpected pitchers to target in a points-league format:
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
AJ's SP rank (8), Tristan's SP rank (23), Eric's SP rank (24)
In 2020's shortened season, Hendricks simply provided more of the same quality pitching that he has since debuting with the Cubs in 2014. I understand that he's not the flashiest hurler out there, due to a consistent K/9 rate under 8.00. But last year he produced his best ever BB% (2.5%) marking the fourth consecutive year of improvement in that category. This helped lead to a stellar 8.00 K/BB rate -- a points-league gold standard. Additionally, a return of his GB% to 47.1% (up 5.8% from 2019) is a good sign that the longball won't be hurting his ERA anytime soon.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
My SP rank (13), Tristan's SP rank (48), Eric's SP rank (59)
Firstly, we completely understand that Marquez toils in what is still not exactly a pitcher's panacea in Coors Field. However, that makes his recent performance all the more impressive. Throwing more regular-season innings than any other NL'er in 2020, Marquez posted an amazing (even more so for Denver) 50.6% GB rate, helping him to achieve an almost miraculous 9.4% HR/FB (down from 20.1% in 2019). He also produced a career-best 66.3 first-pitch strike percentage. Now add in his high-priced contract ($42.6 million over the next three seasons) and, in the wake of Nolan Arenado leaving town, we may well see Marquez on a much more friendly mound by the trade deadline.
Zack Greinke, Houston Astros
My SP rank (16), Tristan's SP rank (27), Eric's SP rank (25)
Sure, he'll be 37 when this season starts and this 17-year veteran is coming off a 4.03 ERA -- only the second time he's surpassed the 4.00 mark since 2011. He's not getting any younger, so keeping him on the outskirts of the top-25 SP seems wise. Still, his 0.81 HR/FB rate was his lowest since 2015 -- which was before he was with Diamondbacks, so just maybe Chase Field was the real culprit there? Greinke's 7.44 K/BB rate was also the highest of his career. Additionally, he had only a 68.5% LOB (his worst since 2011), indicating that -- all else being somewhat equal -- his ERA will likely drop back down by a great deal in 2021. He should definitely be drafted as a top-20 SP option in points leagues.
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
AJ's SP rank (22), Tristan's SP rank (45), Eric's SP rank (43)
I suspect part of the reason that there's such a huge gap between my rank for Gonzales and that of my colleagues is the fact that Seattle has plans to continue with a six-man rotation in 2021, which would potentially limit his innings to the 160's, rather than a repeat of 2019's 203 IP. Still, you know what they say about the best laid plans of Mariners and men, right? In any event, what's not to like about a guy who allowed just seven walks (0.90 BB/9) in 69 2/3 innings last season? He also had career-bests in K/9 (8.27), K/BB (9.14), and a fourth consecutive season with improvement in BABIP (.263). Even a little bit of regression is going to provide your fantasy staff with a very solid floor from which to build.
Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
AJ's SP rank (35), Tristan's SP rank (66), Eric's SP rank (56)
It's easy to dismiss Eflin's best-ever 3.97 ERA from last season as being one of those glaring anomalies that results when you factor in the 60-game small sample size problem that dominates all of 2020's stats. However, he achieved his first sub-4.00 ERA despite a career-worst .344 BABIP. That means he must have been doing something right, and that something was a surge in strikeouts (10.68 K/9), a standout 4.67 K/BB and -- perhaps most importantly, given his elevated base-runner total - a 47.4% GB rate, best of his career. To me, this says he's finally figured out how to use his sinker. I'm willing to take a chance here.
Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics
AJ's SP rank (43), Tristan's SP rank (56), Eric's SP rank (57)
There is absolutely nothing exciting about Bassitt. His velocity is fine. His rates are fine. Well, what's wrong with "fine" for the back end of your rotation? Last year, we saw a pitcher who is very comfortable on a big-league mound who never tires to be more than what he is. In the process, he produced his fourth straight season with an improved K/BB (now at 3.24). Sure, his 85.6% LOB will regress, but 2020's 2.29 ERA was overwhelmingly good. Even if you up that by a run and a half, we're still looking at a pitcher who could finish in the top 10 in the AL in ERA. That's fine with me.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
AJ's SP rank (44), Tristan's SP rank (67), Eric's SP rank (71)
Have we all forgotten that Heaney was named the Angels' Opening Day starter in 2020? And that was back when we thought there was going to be a 162-game season, not just when teams finally got things started in July. Is he an injury risk? Absolutely, and I imagine he has one of those "get 10 MRIs and the next one is free" punch cards in his wallet. Still, last season he improved his GB rate to 39.0% and his HR/FB rate dropped to 12.3%. He also saw far fewer hard-hit balls (36.7%, down from 47.6% in 2019) against him. I see him faring no worse in 2021 than he did last season -- when he ended up as the No. 51 SP on ESPN's Player Rater -- and possibly much better, so long as he doesn't need to redeem any coupons.
What about the bullpen?
Before we close our discussion on pitching, we need to talk about relievers. Saves are worth five points in ESPN standard scoring but because we're not dealing with the task of competing in specific statistical categories, you don't actually need them, per se. In fact, you don't need to draft any closers at all if you don't want to. However, some fantasy managers (myself included) like to go with a pitching staff consisting of one ace and as many closers as possible.
This tactic can pay huge dividends because while the best starting pitchers do typically end the season with the most overall points, when broken down on a week-to-week basis, there's a huge amount of variance. One disastrous start can single-handedly turn a potential win into a loss. Closers, however, tend to get into games only when there's a chance to earn a save. On top of that, there's not as much chance for disaster as they don't get docked harshly for any inherited runners they allow to score -- those runs are charged to the guy who put them on base in the first place. Get 2-3 save opportunities from 7-8 closers each week and the potential for points is far greater than if you used 5-7 so-so streaming SPs instead.
Now, when it comes to ranking relievers in the preseason, you really shouldn't pay too much attention to the names of the pitchers themselves. Rather, it's their teams that matter. Closers only keep their jobs for as long as their managers have confidence in them. Many bullpens are overcrowded with options and an "official announcement" regarding who will win those coveted ninth-inning jobs might not come until just prior to Opening Day. In other words, while we're currently higher on the likes of Nick Anderson (Rays) and James Karinchak (Indians), if those jobs suddenly go to Diego Castillo or Nick Wittgren instead, then you're probably just going to see those pairs of teammates swap places in the rankings.
However, this doesn't mean there isn't also some inherent value to those eighth-inning holds guys (especially in the returning "must face three hitters" environment) who are unlikely to be moved from those roles, even if something happens to their teams' closers. You're looking at potentially just as many (if not more) appearances per week, which is ideal for streaming them into your fantasy lineups if you can make daily moves - and particularly so on the days after the closer has just pitched back-to-back outings. Standouts in this group who have an expected K/9 rate of 10.0 or more and a K/BB rate of at least 4.50 include Devin Williams (Brewers), Tyler Duffey (Twins) and Tanner Rainey (Nationals).