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          Fantasy baseball Sunday advice: Brewers' Montas is streamable

          Frankie Montas has had a resurgence since joining the Brewers. Jeff Hanisch/Imagn Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 21, 2024, 06:45 PM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Montas missing more bats

          Frankie Montas was sporting a bloated 5.01 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with a pedestrian 22.2% strikeout rate when the Milwaukee Brewers acquired the right-hander from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline. However, Montas' leadership was lauded by the Reds' coaching staff, and Milwaukee needed a veteran to support its playoff push.

          The Brewers have developed a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers and saw something in Montas. The trade proved prescient. Not only has Montas been a clubhouse presence, he has recorded a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with an impressive 28.6% strikeout rate in nine starts covering 50 2/3 innings for the postseason-bound Brewers.

          While it's unclear if there is a direct cause and effect, Montas has added a tick to his four-seam and two-seam fastballs. Regardless, the Brewers took advantage by having Montas throw more sinkers and cutters while backing off splitter and slider usage. His swinging strike rate has increased across the board, most noticeably with his four-seam fastball.

          Where Montas will land when the Brewers set their playoff rotation is unknown. At the top likely will be RHP Freddy Peralta, but after that, Montas, RHP Aaron Civale and RHP Tobias Myers can be deployed in any order.

          On Sunday, Montas (13.4% rostered in ESPN league) has a home date with the Arizona Diamondbacks in what could be a wild-card round preview. The Brewers still have a mathematical chance at a bye, but they're almost assuredly hosting a wild-card series against the Diamondbacks, New York Mets or Atlanta Braves.

          The Diamondbacks have more to play for in Sunday's meeting, but the Brewers want to head into the playoffs with momentum, so they'll be giving it their all. Montas may not want to give away his game plan if he were to face the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, but his stuff is playing up enough to trust in season leagues. Those in the head-to-head finals may be more hesitant to burn a start on a risky matchup.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Sunday's action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET with RHP Hunter Greene and the Reds hosting RHP Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates in a matchup of two NL Central young aces. The Pirates are showing no indication of limiting Skenes, as he's averaging 100 pitches per game in his three September outings. Greene will be working with a pitch count, as he has been out over a month with elbow inflammation. Greene threw 52 pitches in a simulated game last Tuesday, so he should be able to complete four or five frames.

          • The top-ranked streaming option is Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz (18.8% rostered) for his home date with the Toronto Blue Jays. Baz didn't debut until early July, but by season's end, he should finish between 75 and 80 innings, enough to pitch next season with limited restrictions. His 3.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are stellar, but he has benefited from a .231 BABIP and 78.7% left on base mark, masking a low 20.6% strikeout rate. Even so, Baz is in play as a spot starter, pitching at favorable Tropicana Field. Beware, however, the Blue Jays don't strike out a lot, so there is some risk.

          • Next up is Houston Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti (21.8%) for a juicy home tilt against the Los Angeles Angels. Arrighetti could be hitting a rookie wall, as his punchouts have been down in September, but he's facing a lineup with a generous 26.6% strikeout rate versus righties over the past month.

          • Sunday is an important outing for Cleveland Guardians RHP Gavin Williams. The Guardians have clinched a playoff berth, but they still have designs on the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs on the American League side. Plus, Williams needs to establish consistency, something he has lacked over the second half. To his credit, Williams has rebounded from a drubbing inflicted by the Los Angeles Dodgers three starts ago with a pair of solid efforts, but a third straight effective effort would help instill more confidence. The Guardians will conclude a road interleague series with the St. Louis Cardinals, whose lineup has been below average with a right-hander on the hill.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday