Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

Mar 28, 2025, 10:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.2	Roki Sasaki	R	DET	93.3%	-240	7.5	55%	6.6	2.6	7.1
13.0	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	@SD	89.1%	-145	8.5	63%	6.0	2.1	5.4
12.7	Bryce Miller	R	ATH	93.7%	-165	7.5	60%	5.7	2.0	5.5
11.6	Erick Fedde	R	MIN	16.8%	+105	7.5	55%	5.8	2.3	5.6
11.5	Max Scherzer	R	BAL	29.4%	-130	8.5	49%	5.6	2.4	5.9
11.2	Jesus Luzardo	L	@WSH	25.4%	-160	8.5	59%	5.7	2.6	6.2
11.0	Nestor Cortes	L	@NYY	35.4%	+140	8.5	48%	5.6	2.4	5.8
10.9	Joe Ryan	R	@STL	94.9%	-125	7.5	45%	5.7	2.5	6.0
10.3	Max Fried	L	MIL	98.9%	-165	8.5	52%	5.5	2.3	5.8
10.1	Jose Soriano	R	@CWS	6.5%	-165	8.5	53%	5.2	2.1	5.2
9.7	Spencer Arrighetti	R	NYM	17.8%	-125	8.5	50%	5.2	2.5	6.0
9.6	Reese Olson	R	@LAD	12.9%	+185	7.5	45%	5.2	2.2	5.0
9.5	Shota Imanaga	L	@ARI	97.8%	+105	8.5	52%	5.8	2.9	5.4
9.1	Zack Littell	R	COL	3.9%	-190	8.5	61%	5.2	2.6	4.8
8.9	Dean Kremer	R	@TOR	1.9%	+110	8.5	51%	5.6	2.7	4.7
8.8	Jonathan Cannon	R	LAA	0.4%	+140	8.5	47%	5.5	2.6	4.9
8.7	Seth Lugo	R	CLE	82.8%	-120	8.5	55%	5.8	3.1	5.1
8.7	Brandon Pfaadt	R	CHC	82.7%	-125	8.5	48%	5.4	2.9	5.5
8.7	Justin Verlander	R	@CIN	18.2%	EVEN	8.5	54%	5.6	3.1	5.4
8.6	Griffin Canning	R	@HOU	2.5%	+105	8.5	50%	5.5	2.9	5.3
8.3	Valente Bellozo	R	PIT	0.2%	+105	8.5	47%	5.3	2.6	4.7
8.2	Osvaldo Bido	R	@SEA	1.2%	+140	7.5	40%	4.5	2.0	4.8
7.3	Bailey Falter	L	@MIA	0.9%	-125	8.5	53%	4.9	2.4	3.8
7.3	Gavin Williams	R	@KC	26.1%	EVEN	8.5	45%	5.1	2.8	4.6
7.1	Jake Irvin	R	PHI	4.8%	+135	8.5	41%	5.4	3.1	4.7
7.0	Nick Lodolo	L	SF	20.5%	-120	8.5	46%	5.1	3.3	6.2
6.3	Randy Vasquez	R	ATL	0.2%	+120	8.5	37%	4.9	2.5	3.8
6.2	Tyler Mahle	R	BOS	1.4%	-120	8.5	49%	4.6	2.8	4.6
5.8	Walker Buehler	R	@TEX	43.7%	EVEN	8.5	51%	4.9	3.2	4.5
3.7	Antonio Senzatela	R	@TB	0.3%	+160	8.5	39%	3.8	2.5	3.6

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

The Kansas City Royals aren't the pushovers of recent seasons, but they're also not daunting. Spring numbers aren't predictive, but extremes in small samples can be telling and Gavin Williams fanned 21 batters in 12 1/3 Cactus League innings. Williams merits a spot start on the road.
Rate Field (formerly Guaranteed Rate Field) has the reputation of being a hitter's park, but it suppresses runs. It's beneficial for homers, so pitchers that keep the ball in the yard can be successful. Los Angeles Angels RHP Jose Soriano is an example, rendering him in play as a streamer against the Chicago White Sox.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

This isn't a hard pass, but if you're up against an innings or games started limit (or expect you will be), there is some risk using Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks led the league in scoring last season and should be among the league leaders crossing the plate again this year.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Until the results show otherwise, the assumption will be power-driven left-handed batters will benefit from George Steinbrenner Field. Tampa Bay Rays' lefties Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe are in a great spot, enjoying the platoon edge on Colorado Rockies right-handed pitcher German Marquez.

Betting tips

Betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's Top Home Run Prop Bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)

Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.74 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% -- 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Alec Burleson | OVER 0.5 HR (+750)

Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Burleson may have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just one same-handed RP.

Isaac Paredes | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)

Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.14 EV
One reason to bet this: Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.8% -- 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's second-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Today's Top Pitcher Prop Bets

Bryce Miller | UNDER 1.5 ER (+110)

Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.24 EV
One reason to bet this: Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to my projections.

Roki Sasaki | OVER 4.5 K (-120)

Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.27 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the third-most suitable for pitching on the slate.

Osvaldo Bido | UNDER 2.5 ER (-170)

Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Bido (38.2% GB% per my projections) is well-situated in today's game with two FB hitters in the opposition's projected lineup.