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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream Friday
Houston Astros RHP Ronel Blanco is off to a sluggish start with seven earned runs allowed in two outings, covering 6⅔ innings. Blanco walked seven in that span, albeit with nine strikeouts, He was initially scheduled to take the hill Saturday, but RHP Spencer Arrighetti's broken hand moved everyone up a day. Blanco is in a good spot to right the ship, facing a Los Angeles Angels lineup at home in pitcher-friendly Daikin Park.
Washington Nationals RHP Mitchell Parker's 0.73 ERA is misleading as he has fanned just seven with six walks over his first two efforts, both registering as quality starts. Though he's a candidate for regression, he'll likely fend it off for at least one more start facing the Miami Marlins in South Beach.
Pitchers to avoid Friday
Toronto Blue Jays RHP Bowden Francis is coming off a historically effective second half. His 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over two starts this season suggests he's picking up where he left off, but five walks and two homers allowed in 11⅓ innings indicate that his command and control need work. The Baltimore offense isn't clicking yet as the Orioles are middle of the pack, averaging 4.2 runs per game, but they're still dangerous, especially at home. The safe play is avoiding Francis for this AL East affair in Camden Yards.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.39 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.40 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: D | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.45 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.29 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.67 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.65 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Friday
Astros batters line up for a productive Friday night with Angels RHP Jack Kochanowicz on the hill. Kochanowicz sports a low strikeout rate, though he usually keeps the ball on the ground. However, he has induced fewer grounders so far, leading to three homers allowed in 11 frames. SS Jeremy Pena, RF Cam Smith and 2B Brendan Rodgers have ample power to take advantage of Kochanowicz if he continues to keep the ball up in the zone.
The Cincinnati Reds, especially the right-handed contingent, also enjoy a favorable matchup with vulnerable LHP Bailey Falter taking the hill for the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario are the main streaming targets.
Hitters to avoid Friday
Facing San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray is already an uncomfortable experience. Add cold and clammy conditions in the Bronx, and it's best to avoid New York Yankees batters, at least those not named Aaron Judge. That said, the early forecast puts the game in jeopardy, so having a backup plan for all Yankees hitters is the sage approach.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Athletics LHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .340 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .335 wOBA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins LHB vs. Nationals pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .330 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .244 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .254 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .257 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those utilized in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an expected value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Cedric Mullins has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 4.9% rate last season to 13.3% this year.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.51 EV
One reason to bet this: Sutter Health Park has the fourth-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.
Ryan O'Hearn | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Ryan OHearns ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 17% to 20%.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Jacob deGrom | OVER 7.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Jacob deGroms 2506.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 94th percentile among all SPs.
Tomoyuki Sugano | UNDER 3.5 K (-140)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.62 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last GS, Tomoyoki Sugano struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post one Ks.
Jack Kochanowicz | UNDER 3.5 K (-120)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.35 EV
One reason to bet this: The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 13 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate - favorable for offense.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Braves @ Rays | NRFI (-105) Projection54% chance of NO RUN with a $4.84 EV Royals @ Guardians | NRFI (-140) Projection60% chance of NO RUN with a $2.97 EV Mets @ Athletics | YRFI (-130) Projection57% chance of RUN with a $2.07 EV