Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

ESPN Fantasy

Apr 14, 2025, 10:07 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.8	Paul Skenes	R	WSH	99.8%	-215	7.5	72%	5.9	1.8	6.4
12.8	Tarik Skubal	L	@MIL	99.8%	-165	7.5	60%	5.7	2.1	5.9
12.1	Framber Valdez	L	@STL	98.8%	-120	7.5	52%	6.0	2.3	6.1
11.8	Dylan Cease	R	CHC	97.7%	-165	7.5	48%	5.7	2.2	6.5
11.8	Sonny Gray	R	HOU	94.3%	EVEN	7.5	48%	5.8	2.3	5.8
10.9	Joe Ryan	R	NYM	93.1%	-115	8.5	55%	5.5	2.7	6.2
10.9	Seth Lugo	R	@NYY	72.1%	+120	8.5	58%	5.8	2.6	5.5
10.4	Jameson Taillon	R	@SD	6.7%	+140	7.5	52%	5.7	2.3	4.7
10.3	Dustin May	R	COL	41.3%	-360	8.5	65%	5.0	2.0	4.9
9.5	Tanner Houck	R	@TB	52.4%	EVEN	8.5	55%	5.6	2.5	4.8
9.3	Landen Roupp	R	@PHI	4.9%	EVEN	8.5	56%	5.1	2.2	5.0
9.2	Shane Baz	R	BOS	63.7%	-120	8.5	45%	5.5	2.6	5.3
8.1	Grant Holmes	R	@TOR	7.1%	EVEN	9.5	50%	4.9	2.3	4.6
8.0	Clay Holmes	R	@MIN	32.0%	-105	8.5	45%	5.2	2.7	5.4
8.0	Easton Lucas	L	ATL	19.9%	-120	9.5	50%	4.6	2.2	4.5
7.3	Tyler Alexander	L	DET	2.8%	+140	7.5	40%	4.8	2.5	4.5
6.9	Taijuan Walker	R	SF	14.0%	-120	8.5	44%	5.2	3.0	4.7
5.3	Carlos Carrasco	R	KC	0.9%	-145	8.5	42%	4.7	2.9	4.1
4.5	Antonio Senzatela	R	@LAD	0.2%	+285	8.5	35%	4.4	2.7	3.8
4.4	Brad Lord	R	@PIT	0.3%	+180	7.5	28%	3.1	1.6	2.9

Pitchers to stream on Monday

Even though Monday is the first day of the fantasy week, there may not be a better streaming opportunity than Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Dustin May facing the Colorado Rockies in Dodger Stadium. May fanned only one in his last outing, but the Rockies sport the league's highest strikeout rate.
New York Mets RHP Clay Holmes is off to a mixed start. He's fanned an impressive 20 batters in 14 2/3 innings, but he's issued nine free passes and has been victimized by a .422 BABIP. Next up is a Minnesota Twins lineup that is slow out of the gate with the fifth lowest wOBA in the early season. It's still cold in Minneapolis, landing Holmes as a streamer for the Mets road date with the Twins.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

Kansas City Royals RHP Seth Lugo's style is a great fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium but he's vulnerable in homer friendly venues, like Yankee Stadium. It's best to avoid Lugo for his matchup with the powerful New York Yankees lineup.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.41 ERA in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.58 ERA in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Padres hitters
The average pitcher would post a 3.82 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
The average pitcher would post a 5.43 ERA in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.91 ERA in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
The average pitcher would post a 4.75 ERA in this matchup.

Hitters to stream on Monday

Temperatures are rising in the northeast, so the Yankees aren't the only offense in a favorable spot for Monday's meeting in the Bronx. The Royals should be productive with RHP Carlos Carrasco on the field for the home team. Jonathan India, Michael Massey and Hunter Renfroe are the best targets.
The San Francisco Giants are averaging the seventh most runs in MLB but their batters' rosterships remain low. The Giants should continue to be productive with a road matchup against RHP Taijuan Walker and the Philadelphia Phillies in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald and Patrick Bailey are all in play to help fortify a Monday fantasy lineup which is likely short active players.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $49.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% - 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the leagues 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Kyle Isbel | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.48 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 6 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, per my projections, is Yankee Stadium.

Ozzie Albies | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.39 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre ranks as the No. 2 venue in the league for right-handed home runs, according to my projections.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Dustin May | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Will Smith, the Dodgers' expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to my projections.

Tanner Houck | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Recording an average of 94.9 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season, Houck places in the 88th percentile.

Tarik Skubal | UNDER 6.5 K (+125)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Via my projections, the offense with the fourth-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Brewers with a 21% underlying K%.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Red Sox @ Rays | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $4.95 EV

Braves @ Blue Jays | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $1.29 EV

Royals @ Yankees | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $0.97 EV