Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream Sunday
Yu Darvish has been frugal with the long ball in recent seasons, but lately he's suffering from a bout of gopheritis. The veteran has surrendered at least one home run in seven straight games, totaling nine in 33⅔ innings. Darvish should reverse the trend when the San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies tote one of the lowest road home run rates, which is further suppressed by Petco Park.
Jose Quintana has outpitched his peripherals most of the season. However, the lefty has posted a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his past three outings, spanning 16⅔ innings. Even with the struggles, Quintana pitched into the seventh inning in his prior two efforts, keeping his points league scoring afloat. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals, and the visitors are vulnerable to left-handed pitching, sporting one of the lowest home run rates with a southpaw on the hill.
Slade Cecconi is coming off one of the best outings of his career, blanking the Kansas City Royals over eight frames and keeping the Cleveland Guardians within striking distance of the AL wild-card chase. Sometimes after an extended effort, the team will manage the innings in the next trip to the hill, but Cecconi threw a reasonable 100 pitches, so there should be no restriction when he faces the Chicago White Sox at home.
Pitchers to avoid Sunday
Sunday is the final day of Playoff Round 1 in ESPN head-to-head leagues, so your team needs dictate risk aversion, but beware that Aaron Nola isn't safe despite coming off his best performance of the season. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Kansas City Royals in the final game of the weekend interleague set. In the four games before Nola stifled the New York Mets last time out, the veteran registered an 8.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Royals' pesky "move-the-line" offense is the type that can give Nola fits, considering his command and control aren't quite back.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.33 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.52 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.04 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.97 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.94 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Sunday
The Toronto Blue Jays entertain the Baltimore Orioles in an AL East affair where the Orioles are likely to deploy a parade of relievers. Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement are the most likely to take advantage.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Orioles pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: A | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .258 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Away
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Rays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% -- 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Alejandro Kirk | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.97 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Kirk has had bad variance on his side this year. His 15.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to my projected expected HR/600 of 20.6.
Michael Harris II | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.35 EV
One reason to bet this: My projections estimate Harris' true offensive talent to be a .324 wOBA, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .045 deviation between that figure and his actual .279 wOBA.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Tyler Glasnow | UNDER 6.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.97 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hitters.
Cade Cavalli | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.41 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected starting catcher Riley Adams projects to be a weak pitch framer.
German Marquez | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.61 EV
One reason to bet this: The Padres (projected 18.7 K%) are expected to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on today's slate.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Angels @ Mariners | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $7.52 EV
Astros @ Braves | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $5.88 EV
Orioles @ Blue Jays | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $3.38 EV