Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 19, 2025, 07:13 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart

STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	Garrett Crochet	L	@TB	99.9%	-135	7.5	62%	5.8	1.9	6.6
14.0	Bryan Woo	R	@HOU	96.6%	-110	7.5	62%	5.9	2.0	6.1
12.9	Dylan Cease	R	@CWS	92.3%	-175	8.5	59%	5.8	2.2	6.6
11.6	Hunter Brown	R	SEA	99.3%	-110	7.5	38%	5.6	2.2	6.3
10.6	Sonny Gray	R	MIL	92.6%	EVEN	7.5	54%	5.5	2.4	5.8
10.5	Brandon Sproat	R	WSH	14.6%	-200	8.5	58%	5.4	2.2	5.3
10.4	Pablo Lopez	R	CLE	78.3%	-115	7.5	48%	5.8	2.7	5.7
10.1	Robbie Ray	L	@LAD	82.6%	+145	8.5	46%	5.5	2.3	5.3
9.8	Shota Imanaga	L	@CIN	95.3%	-125	8.5	57%	5.7	3.0	5.8
9.5	Luis Severino	R	@PIT	17.4%	-110	8.5	52%	5.7	2.6	5.1
9.2	Andrew Alvarez	L	@NYM	2.7%	+165	8.5	42%	4.9	1.9	4.8
8.8	Mitch Keller	R	ATH	50.7%	-110	8.5	48%	5.7	2.9	5.1
8.6	Clayton Kershaw	L	SF	37.4%	-175	8.5	54%	4.8	2.0	4.4
8.6	Parker Messick	L	@MIN	19.6%	-105	7.5	52%	5.6	2.9	5.4
8.3	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@STL	64.4%	-120	7.5	46%	4.6	2.1	5.3
8.0	Nick Lodolo	L	CHC	59.1%	+105	8.5	43%	5.1	2.8	5.4
8.0	Ryne Nelson	R	PHI	27.7%	-125	9.5	51%	5.2	2.7	4.8
7.5	Davis Martin	R	SD	2.4%	+145	8.5	41%	5.4	2.7	4.3
7.4	Will Warren	R	@BAL	20.6%	-120	9.5	52%	5.1	3.0	5.1
7.4	Drew Rasmussen	R	BOS	69.8%	+115	7.5	38%	4.4	1.9	3.7
7.4	Trevor Rogers	L	NYY	69.0%	EVEN	9.5	48%	5.3	2.9	5.1
6.7	Max Scherzer	R	@KC	24.2%	-150	8.5	55%	5.0	3.0	4.4
6.6	Charlie Morton	R	ATL	8.3%	-120	8.5	52%	5.1	3.0	4.9
6.4	Bryce Elder	R	@DET	8.2%	EVEN	8.5	48%	5.3	3.2	4.7
5.8	Janson Junk	R	@TEX	3.2%	+135	8.5	49%	5.2	3.2	3.9
4.6	Michael Lorenzen	R	TOR	4.1%	+125	8.5	45%	5.0	3.4	4.1
4.5	Taijuan Walker	R	@ARI	4.0%	+105	9.5	49%	4.9	3.3	3.8
4.5	Tyler Mahle	R	MIA	27.0%	-160	8.5	51%	3.7	2.0	3.1
0.4	Mitch Farris	L	@COL	1.4%	-125	11.5	54%	4.4	4.8	4.5
-2.8	Bradley Blalock	R	LAA	0.1%	+105	11.5	46%	4.6	5.9	4.0

Pitchers to stream Friday

Brandon Sproat has taken the hill twice in his MLB career, and both efforts were quality starts. His third comes Friday at Citi Field when the New York Mets host the Washington Nationals. Sproat fanned just 10 with four walks in his inaugural 12 innings, but this start sets up for more punchouts and fewer free passes. Over the past month, the Nationals sport the sixth-highest strikeout and walk rates facing right-handers.
Luis Severino is wrapping up a disappointing campaign. Much has been made of his struggles at home, but the problem with Sutter Health Park is its generosity to homers, and Severino sports a reasonable 1.2 HR/9 in Sacramento. The righty's issue is a precipitous drop in swinging strikes, both home and away. The Athletics open a road set with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, generating a chance for Severino to rack up a few extra punchouts facing the offense with the seventh-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill for the previous month.
Clayton Kershaw who announced Thursday that he is retiring after this season, posted a rare clunker in his last outing, yielding four earned runs in only three frames to the San Francisco Giants. He has a chance for retribution less than a week later, this time at home when the Los Angeles Dodgers welcome in the Giants for a weekend set. Last Saturday notwithstanding, the Giants check in with the second-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate versus lefties this season.
Mitch Keller's record is 6-14, but he has logged 17 quality starts, tied for 12th-most in MLB. This is not a call for replacing wins with quality in category scoring (both have flaws); it's pointing out that Keller has pitched better than his record indicates, thus warrants streaming consideration for favorable matchups. The Pirates hosting the Athletics is an example. The visitors experience a park downgrade, in cooler temperatures in which they're accustomed to playing.

Pitchers to avoid Friday

Something has to give. Trevor Rogers has yielded only three homers in 100 2/3 innings, and the New York Yankees lead the league in home run rate. Rogers is slated to take the hill in Camden Yards a week after he had to leave early with a blood blister on his toe. The Baltimore Orioles cleared Rogers for Friday's start, but the chance the blister returns is sufficient enough to avoid Rogers and not run the risk of his home-run luck running out.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream Friday

The Miami Marlins are relishing the role of spoiler, playing .500 ball over the past month, including wins over the Detroit Tigers, Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. Their bats should be in good shape when they return home to take on Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers. It will be Mahle's MLB first start in over three months, and even if he's effective, his workload will be limited. The back end of the Rangers bullpen has been solid, but the middle and long relievers have been suspect. The Los Angeles Angels are in Coors Field, so they're clear streaming options, but the Marlins also merit consideration with Agustin Ramirez and Jakob Marsee heading the list.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Elly De La Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.66 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme groundball batters like De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers.

Sal Stewart | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.22 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of the day at 85 degrees.

Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+550)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.59 EV
One reason to bet this: A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs). This game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of the day at 85 degrees.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Trevor Rogers | UNDER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.84 EV
One reason to bet this: With six batters who hit from the opposite side in the opponent's projected lineup, Rogers has a tough challenge -- lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances for this outing.

Dylan Cease | UNDER 6.5 K (-120)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.40 EV
One reason to bet this: With six batters who hit from the opposite side in the opponent's projected lineup, Cease has a tough challenge -- lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances for this outing.

Shota Imanaga | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.42 EV
One reason to bet this: With eight batters who hit from the opposite side in the opponent's projected lineup, Imanaga has a tough challenge -- lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances for this outing.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Angels @ Rockies | YRFI (-155)
Projection: 70% chance of RUN with a $24.21 EV

Giants @ Dodgers | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $8.67 EV

Mariners @ Astros | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of NO RUN with a $4.73 EV