Over the first half of September, while much of the sports world focused on the start of football season, I spent countless hours participating in fantasy basketball mock drafts in preparation for the season ahead.
It was a fun and enlightening exercise, to be sure, helping to shed light on trends such as rising and falling players, strong and weak parts of the draft, and average draft positions of pivotal names like Ben Simmons and Chris Bosh.
Through it all, I found one piece of advice that stands out like LeBron James on a fast break, at least for those in standard snake-style drafts. It is simply this:
Make sure you draft point a point guard in the first two rounds.
This might seem like common knowledge for longtime fantasy hoops players who realize the importance of a point guard-heavy roster, but it rings truer in 2016-17 than it has in years.
Humor me for a second and think back to your youth, when you passed time by playing tic-tac-toe. You remember, don't you? If you were anything like me, typically your first turn always seems like a good move.
That's similar to the way the first round of fantasy hoops drafts feel this year.
Looking through ESPN's updated rankings, you see a top 12 filled with big names like James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and Paul George, who tantalize you with their upside and overall talent at positions other than point guard.
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On the surface, it seems fine. It seems like any of the 12 make for a great foundation. At the same time, it's worth realizing that four of them are point guards (Westbrook, Curry, Paul and Lillard).
Going back to the tic-tac-toe analogy: The second move usually seems like a good one as well.
For those playing in 12-team leagues, that "move" likely involves selecting one of the next 12 on ESPN's updated rankings:
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This is a group that includes several big-name, well-rounded point guards who contribute as scorers, distributors, shooters and defenders, while shooting a high percentage either from the field or the free throw line.
But, like before, there's also temptation to pass on a point guard for one of the other notable stars like Antetokounmpo, Whiteside, Millsap, Green, Butler or Griffin.
Look up after two rounds, and it'd be easy to be without a point guard without even feeling bad about it. After all, you might have a studly duo of Harden and Griffin or Durant and Butler or something like that.
You might be thinking: How could that possibly be a problem? Aren't there other point guards to get later in the draft that can round out the roster?
While there are other lower-ranked point guards, the problem is the steep drop-off after the first two rounds; Rajon Rondo (46) and Goran Dragic (50) are the next two point guards in the top 50, and both are over 20 picks lower than Bledsoe.
In case it isn't already apparent, that means the value in Rounds 3 and 4 lies in the other positions, particularly power forward and center. So if you already drafted a pair like Cousins and Griffin, that means you are suddenly set in the frontcourt while a swarm of bigs remain available: Kevin Love (35), Marc Gasol (37), Pau Gasol (38), Andre Drummond (39), DeAndre Jordan (40), Derrick Favors (41), Rudy Gobert (44), Nikola Vucevic (45) and Nikola Jokic (47).
If you enter Round 3 without at least one of the 10 point guards ranked inside ESPN's top 25, you'll feel like you just got trapped heading into your third turn of tic-tac-toe. You'll find yourself with an unbalanced roster that's too deep up front and woefully thin in the backcourt, dependent on second-tier fantasy point guards like Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight and/or Mike Conley to carry the load despite incomplete fantasy résumés.
Now imagine the flip side, going into Rounds 3 and 4 with a combination of Curry and Thomas or Paul and Lowry, for example. If you can pull something like this off, you'll be set in the assist, steal and 3-point categories and benefit firsthand from all the frontcourt value that falls your way between picks 25 and 50.