In order to ascend past your peers in a competitive fantasy basketball league, you'll need to score on a few bold calls. Trusting last season's surface numbers rarely delivers fantasy glory, as we must work to project and price in shifts in usage and development for various NBA talents.
With audacity in mind, we break down eight players and provide bold predictions for the upcoming NBA season.
Evan Fournier averages more than 20 points, flirts with a top-10 scoring rate
The average scoring clip for finishing 10th in the league in per-game scoring over the past three seasons was 22.2 points per game. Fournier averaged 15.4 points last season, so this claim certainly qualifies as daring, given that we're projecting a nearly 30 percent leap in scoring output from the French swingman. The reasoning begins with the premise that he's the Orlando Magic's best perimeter scorer in the wake of Victor Oladipo's trade, and he is the team's best shooter, as he was one of just nine NBA players to shoot at least 45 percent from the field, 80 percent from the stripe and 40 percent from beyond the arc.
As the team's most effective and efficient outside scorer, we could see Fournier command the ball-dominant wing role Paul George has served in Frank Vogel's offense the past several seasons. It costs only a midround pick to find out if Fournier -- who turns 24 later this month -- will make a sizable surge in scoring.
Dennis Schroder finishes as a top-five fantasy point guard
Even in a down season, Jeff Teague finished 13th among point guards on the Player Rater. The index is a standard deviation model that essentially rewards statistical balance and positive differentiation from a given position pool. With Teague in Indiana, Schroder's rare usage rate the past season, combined with an expected uptick in minutes, touches and shots this season, could see him become a full-fledged fantasy stud in his first year at the helm of the Hawks' fantasy-friendly offense.
ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton is a fan of the upside for the upcoming campaign: "SCHOENE projections have him averaging 17.0 points and 6.2 assists in 30 minutes per game, similar to (and in fact slightly better than) Teague's averages of 15.7 points and 5.9 assists last season while splitting time with Schroder." To go full meta, Schroder doesn't have Schroder to compete with this season, as in a high-usage asset on the same point guard depth chart. Given that he was tied with Blake Griffin for 18th in usage rate last season, the sky is the limit for what could be a breakout campaign.
Hassan Whiteside becomes a top-five fantasy option
This isn't entirely bold, considering Whiteside is being drafted in the middle of the second round on average in ESPN leagues, yet the leap from that range to a top-five asset is sizable, given the sheer number of superstars he'd need to surpass. Whiteside is a Ron Popeil All-Star in that you can "set it and forget it" in regard to dominating blocks in your league if you draft him. Although we worked hard to get that analogy to work, the idea is that if you invest in Whiteside, who led the league in blocks last season and was third in rebounds, you can then spend the rest of your draft sourcing high-usage guards without much allocation on big men. With Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng off the court, both top rebounders for their positions, and Chris Bosh looking unlikely to return, Whiteside's minutes, usage, scoring and rebounding opportunities should soar.
Devin Booker hits 200 3-pointers
In league history, we've seen 52 seasons of an NBA player hitting 200 3-pointers. Booker, who turned 19 last fall, hit 99 shots from beyond the arc last season in becoming the fourth-youngest player to tally 1,000 points in a season. The Suns' backcourt is led by Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, and though it would make sense for roster balance to see one of them dealt this season after trade rumors swirled around both this past summer, we buy Booker taking a sizable leap, even with these high-usage assets in place.
With Booker's size, he can net minutes at small forward, and he's already clearly the team's best perimeter scorer, thus minutes and workload shouldn't be an issue for the second-year star in Earl Watson's rotation. If one of those guards is traded, Booker could vault into the top 30 of fantasy assets. With his shooting prowess and our bold prediction for 200 made 3-pointers, Booker delivers a high fantasy floor and an impressive ceiling.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson leads the NBA in steals
As a rookie, Hollis-Jefferson ranked 38th in the NBA in steals per game, with 1.34, while Steph Curry led the league with a rich rate of 2.14 thefts per game. Why then are we proclaiming a nearly 60 percent leap in steals for the second-year wing? Minutes, for one. The Brooklyn Nets' thin depth chart at the wing should see Hollis-Jefferson top 30 minutes per game.
As Pelton noted in a recent breakdown of the 2015 draft class on the doorstep of their sophomore season, "When he was on the court, Hollis-Jefferson ranked fourth among rookies who averaged at least 15 minutes per game in ESPN's real plus-minus." Chad Ford called RHJ a "defensive monster" in that same piece. With strong rebounding metrics and per-36 rates that equate to 2.3 steals and nearly a block per game, Hollis-Jefferson could help you secure a valuable volume of steals this season.
Andrew Wiggins becomes a second-round fixture in 2017 drafts
Lost in Anthony-Towns' amazing rookie season was the quiet surge we saw from Wiggins across the board as a professional sophomore, as he significantly improved in scoring efficiency. To continue on the bold theme, Wiggins will become a top-five scorer this season, which has meant finishing in the mid-20s the past several seasons.
Glowing offseason reports combined with a new coach prone to ride his starters with heavy minutes and high usage bode well for Wiggins' statistical stock. If we see any marked improvement from 3-point range, Wiggins could truly become an elite fantasy asset, and he's already poised to become a plus-version of DeMar DeRozan in just his third season.
Clint Capela is a top-10 fantasy center
With nearly a steal and 1.2 blocks in just 19.1 minutes per game for the Houston Rockets last season, Capela is a fun fantasy investment, given breakout ingredients heading into the new season. With Dwight Howard in Atlanta, Capela becomes the rim protector of choice for the Rockets, as he'll anchor the team's interior defense.
Per-36 rates can distort expectations for Capela, as we don't expect him to ever near that exposure rate, so if we just adjust to 30 minutes per game based on last year's rates, Capela averages 9.3 points, 9.9 boards and nearly two blocks. This young, emerging pivot could thrive in Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo scheme. The Rockets were 22-11 when Capela played more than 20 minutes last season, a sign that he should see increased usage this year.
Myles Turner is also a top-10 fantasy center
With a massive 7-foot-4 wingspan and elite per-36 rates, Turner is due for a massive leap this season. If you don't want to spend on Whiteside early, wait on the duo of Capela and Turner, and you might still dominate your league in blocks. We saw Turner earn 28.1 minutes in the playoffs this season, as he led the postseason in blocks per game and block rate, compared to just 22.8 minutes during the regular season as a rookie. He is still just 20, and pricing in a leap in minutes and production for Turner could prove profitable for those willing to invest in him in the later rounds, as he's going 89th off the board on average in ESPN drafts.