If you're reading this at this stage of the season, it probably means you're still in the running for an imaginary championship.
You're occupying rarified air. Watching every game you can. Aching over every box score. Sweating every possession.
Because ... it often comes down to one missed shot. One brick. One blown bunny. One clanked free throw.
One single whiff can delineate the difference between winning and losing. In reality ... and in fantasy.
Whether you're playing head-to-head or straight-up roto, you know all too well how thin the margin between winning and losing can be.
You may need to protect yourself. Playing during winning time often requires unconventional strategy.
You may need to sit a star.
Stay with me here. Let's say you have a comfortable lead in enough categories to ride to a likely win. But you're in a tight battle for field goal percentage. Or a nail-biter at the free throw line.
You may want to shy away from the players who could kneecap your percentages with a last-second cold streak. You could -- make that should -- consider sitting your more inconsistent shooters. Even if they're inconsistent shooters who happen to be big names.
If you're feeling good enough about your chances in other categories, it might be best to play it safely.
There's a flip side to that coin. Conversely, if you're behind in points scored, field goal percentage, or free throw percentage -- you might need to catch up in a hurry. That's the time to throw as many inconsistent shooters as you can muster into the mix. They could shoot you out of contention ... but they can also shoot you back into the game.
And remember, it's not just the percentages themselves that matter. Volume also plays a part. A player who is capable of shooting 60 percent from the floor -- but takes only 4-6 shots a game -- isn't going to help you as much as a player capable of shooting 55 percent who takes 12-15 shots.
To determine which players are most likely to go on a helpful or hurtful shooting binge, ESPN Stats & Info crunched high-volume shooters. They looked at players who tend to average at least four free throw attempts and ten field goal attempts per contest.
Then, they computed which high-volume shooters deviated the most from their mean free throw and field goal percentages on a game-to-game basis.
I'm talking standard deviation. Looking at variance from the mean. Finding the players most likely to go 15-of-20 from the field during one game, then 3-of-15 the next. Or 9-of-10 from the free throw line, then 5-of-11 the next.
Let's say there's a player who shoots 54.8 from the field. A high-volume shooter who averages 19.2 attempts a game, meaning he's going to carry a lot of weight relative to your team's collective shooting performance.
54.8 is an excellent mean average. But let's say the same player is a little bipolar from the field. Let's say he averages an 11 percent swing per game.
Who's to say he doesn't have a hot night and suddenly goes 14-of-19? At the same time, he could go cold and shoot only 7-of-18 the next night.
At the same time, what if this player is just as unstable -- if not more unstable -- at the free throw line? What if he could go 13-of-15 one night, then 4-of-9 the next night? If you're sitting on a lead, as crazy as it sounds, you may want to bench that player. Even if he's the best player in the NBA. Even if he's in the running for GOAT.
Heck, even if he's...
LeBron James, SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
2017-18 field goal percentage: 54.8%
2017-18 free throw percentage: 72.6%
Standard deviation in games w/10+ FGA: 10.7%
Standard deviation in games w/4+ FTA: 19.0%
That's right. Amongst high-volume shooters, from a big-picture view ... from the field and from the line, there's no player less trustworthy than LeBron. While he's the best player in fantasy, if you're cruising? You may want to consider giving LeBron a night off.
He just had one of his worst games this season Tuesday night against the Heat: 7-of-18 from the field, 0-of-4 from deep, and six turnovers. That came on the heels of one of his best games Sunday against the Nets, when he shot 14-of-19. That's a pretty substantial mood swing.
Let's take a quick scan at some other players to consider sitting if you're ahead ... or riding if you're playing catch-up.
Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
2017-18 field goal percentage: 45.2%
2017-18 free throw percentage: 73.7%
STDV in games w/10+ FGA: 13.4%
STDV in games w/4+ FTA: 18.4%
If you're rostering Westbrook, you don't need me to tell you he's been a tough player to trust. But just when it seemed like he was ironing out his free throw issues, he's shot only 61.9 percent this month. And we're talking about a player who has shot 81.4 percent for his career.
Westbrook's 3-point percentage (29.5 percent) should serve as ample proof that the upside just isn't as high as it was last season (he shot a career-high 34.3 percent from deep in 2016-17). And if you're in a league that counts turnovers, be very careful with Westbrook. He's posted six games with eight turnovers or more this season.
Paul George, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
2017-18 field goal percentage: 43.3%
2017-18 free throw percentage: 81.4%
STDV in games w/10+ FGA: 13.7%
STDV in games w/4+ FTA: 14.1%
George's weak field goal percentage is buttressed by a strong 3-point percentage (40.0 percent), which raises his effective field goal percentage to a serviceable 52.3 percent. But he's been merely decent in terms of efficiency (18.5 PER) and is on the verge of posting his lowest usage rate (25.6) in five seasons.
Warning: George is not looking like the kind of player who can currently help boost your team. He's not closing out the regular season on a high note. George hasn't shot 50 percent from the floor in a game since Valentine's Day. During his past two games, he's shot a combined 7-of-31 from the floor, deadened by an 0-of-13 total from beyond the arc.
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards
2017-18 field goal percentage: 45.2%
2017-18 free throw percentage: 73.7%
STDV in games w/10+ FGA: 13.6%
STDV in games w/4+ FTA: 24.0%
Wall is due back at any moment from his knee surgery. But even when fully ambulatory, Wall historically is one of the NBA's streakiest shooters. He's liable to need a few games to ramp back up.
Unless you're parched for assists? The upside just isn't there to recommend Wall in a dicey matchup.
Giannis Antetokoumpo, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18 field goal percentage: 53.3%
2017-18 free throw percentage: 75.9%
STDV in games w/10+ FGA: 11.0%
STDV in games w/4+ FTA: 13.7%
For a player who takes 46 percent of his shots from 0 to 3 feet, Antetokoumpo is awfully inconsistent. But younger players tend to be less reliable from the field and the line. It's a necessary growing pain.
As Antetokoumpo takes on more and more responsibility, his shot will iron out. And as opposed to George, Antetokoumpo is finishing strongly, shooting 53.4 percent in March, and 39.3 percent from 3-point territory. He's a player who can help you catch up in hurry.
Other players with high-volume, high-standard deviations:
Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana Pacers
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
Dwight Howard, C, Charlotte Hornets
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
Jusuf Nurkic, C, Portland Trail Blazers
Elfrid Payton, PG, Phoenix Suns
Ersan Ilyasova, PF, Philadelphia 76ers
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
Myles Turner, PF/C, Indiana Pacers
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF/PF, Boston Celtics
Hassan Whiteside, PF/C, Miami Heat
Jonathon Simmons, SG/SF, Orlando Magic
James Johnson, SF/PF, Miami Heat