Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's André Snellings, Jim McCormick, Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe.
Of the players considered to be rookies this season, who are your top five long-term keepers?
André Snellings:
1. Ben Simmons
2. Lonzo Ball
5. Jayson Tatum
Markelle Fultz is the big unknown here, because we've seen him play only a few minutes, as he works his way back from a long-term injury. I suspect that Fultz should be on this list, but the unknown status and the question of if he can be maximized while Simmons plays full-time point guard keep him from making it today.
There are those who have Mitchell as the Rookie of the Year. I don't, as I think Simmons has run away with that award. Mitchell is a bit further down this list because I think both Ball and Markkanen have more upside with the level that they demonstrated as rookies on teams that will continue to rely upon them heavily as sophomores and beyond.
The only reason that Tatum isn't also above him is because the Boston Celtics should get Gordon Hayward back next season, which could limit him from reaching the level of production that he otherwise could.
Joe Kaiser:
1. Ben Simmons
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Lonzo Ball
4. Lauri Markkanen
5. Jayson Tatum
Simmons showed he was capable of carrying a fantasy team from Day 1 as a constant triple-double threat who also impacted the blocks and steals categories. Even if he never adds the 3-pointer to his game, he will be difficult to unseat as the No. 1 keeper in this rookie class.
Mitchell is the other player in this class who looks like a future superstar. He showed confidence and swagger way back in the preseason, and that never changed when the games started to count, as he has averaged more than 20.0 PPG as a rookie while adding 1.5 SPG and 2.4 3PG.
Kyle Soppe:
1. Ben Simmons
2. Lonzo Ball
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Donovan Mitchell
5. Kyle Kuzma
Ben Simmons is the unquestioned leader of the pack in terms of dynasty value for not only his well-rounded production, but also for his ability to add a jump shot to his repertoire and become this generation's LeBron James. Yeah, I said it. And yeah, I believe it.
Tatum is the prospect I am most interested in, as the return of Hayward next season will change the look of this offense a bit ... but I'm still buying. Tatum has the type of skill set that could produce a 50/40/90 percentage slash line sooner than later. I love the fact that more than 70 percent of his shots this season have come inside of eight feet or outside of 24, as it makes him an analytics dream. Add in a dash of defensive stats and open driving lanes that figure to only increase in seasons to come, and it wouldn't surprise me if Tatum flirts with a top-30 finish next season.
Tatum's upside isn't as high as some of the other rookies, but his high floor makes him a reliable option that few are at the ripe age of 20. You can always get upside in your dynasty draft ... give me the stability of Tatum as the best value of the rookies based on perception after Year 1.
Jim McCormick:
1. Ben Simmons
2. Donovan Mitchall
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Lonzo Ball
5. Markelle Fultz
Simmons is 35th on the Player Rater by averages and 27th by totals, I'm not even sure Simmons needs to extend his range to the 3-point line to become a special statistical star -- he merely needs to become competent from the free throw line to ascend to elite fantasy status. It's easy to forget that even with the added year since being drafted, he's not even two months older than Mitchell.
As I noted in March, I found Mitchell "eerily mimicking Damian Lillard's brilliant rookie season, save for a lower assist rate. I believe Mitchell will continue to grow as an isolation scorer and high-usage centerpiece."
Second among the rookie class in win shares and already an efficient scorer, Tatum has an incredibly high floor for a young wing.
Somewhat like Simmons, Ball needs to improve his free throw rate in order to become a safer fantasy investment, but his rich floor game and sneakily good defensive rates should prove rewarding for years to come.
I understand it's been a borderline disastrous first stint in the league for Fultz, but a high-usage role with the freedom to score and distribute awaits Fultz in Philly's fantasy-friendly pace-driven system. A Wade-like block rate could also fuel fantasy fun for Fultz.
I'd also nominate the likes of Lauri Markkanen and Jarrett Allen as solid keepers.