I've likely been conditioned by playing fantasy football for the past 20 years to get excited whenever I see the abbreviation for a weak defensive team on the schedule. Seeing "NO" for the New Orleans Saints next to the name of one of my skill players over the past several seasons has likely induced an involuntary dopamine cascade. It's naturally exciting to anticipate a matchup that could invite optimal offensive performances.
Trends change, however, as the Saints have allowed the second-fewest points per drive to opponents since Week 3 this season. A defensive transformation appears legitimate over a growing sample for the Saints, so we should adjust how we approach facing them in fantasy decisions. Reputations, especially in fantasy sports, are hard to shake.
Largely because of the presence of Isaiah Thomas's defensive deficiencies, the Boston Celtics were consistently among the best matchups for opposing point guards. They were as inviting as the Saints used to be against receivers when it came to rostering lead guards.
As you might guess, things have changed this season. Kyrie Irving entered the season with a poor defensive reputation, but opposing point guards are currently averaging the second-fewest fantasy points per game facing the Celtics using FanDuel's scoring model as a measure. Is Irving suddenly a stout defender? I'd guess this defensive allowance has more to do with the Celtics' unique ability to switch on defense, given their plethora of young perimeter talents.
Which brings me to the thematic point for this introductory section: We should allow daily fantasy basketball metrics -- specifically, positional allowance rates -- to influence our management decisions in season-long situations.
The Phoenix Suns are running at a breakneck speed and famously don't have their best point guard (Eric Bledsoe) available to them, thus they've allowed nearly 17 percent more fantasy points to the position per game than any other defense in the league.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Brooklyn Nets are also among the most generous teams against enemy ball distributors. When you are deciphering between close calls for lineups that lock each week or simply trying to figure out the ideal streaming forward for a given night, it helps to identify which teams over this early sample are proving most porous across each position. Don't allow reputations to drive decisions and instead seek out actionable current information.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
In what has been a thematic discussion topic this season, we once again find the earlier start and longer NBA season influencing our weekly schedule appraisal. The league is undoubtedly looking to provide more time off for teams on challenging road trips, as we see the Timberwolves with just two games as they travel to the West Coast. The Memphis Grizzlies are in a similar spot with a reduced two-game slate. The good news for those respective rosters, however, is they face some really fun up-tempo opponents in the process, lessening some of the burden the limited schedule presents.
I'm still not sure we should afford the ratings in the table above too much credence as a lineup decision tool; as in, I wouldn't make a player vs. player conclusion based on a few rating points. Once we get 10 games of data for each team, we're able to include more informative statistical tables into the ratings, which to me is the point when they really speak to the current season's trends and matchup metrics. Which is to say, next week we can dive into what the matchup metrics are telling us.
The most valuable element for evaluating the schedule at this stage remains trying to maximize games played in weekly leagues. Most leagues I'm in have some sort of transaction limit, so if I'm saving up a move to acquire more games, eyeing the teams that play two-game weekends is a savvy approach. Pursuing shares of fringe rotation players on teams such as the Mavericks and the Rockets -- teams that play on both Saturday and Sunday in the week ahead -- could help amplify counting stats in close head-to-head matchups.
Porous in the paint
Continuing on the matchup discussion above, we can identify specifically weak interior defenses around the league to target with our frontcourt talents or drive-heavy guards.
Even with Nerlens Noel in Dallas, the Mavericks are allowing opponents to shoot 66.2 percent from within five feet of the rim, well above league average (60.3 percent) and second-worst in the league.
While there is no denying the talent Karl-Anthony Towns brings to the floor on offense, the Wolves are yet again the softest team in the restricted area, allowing opponents to sink 67 percent of shots within five feet of the basket, worst in the NBA.
Without Myles Turner in the lineup, the Indiana Pacers are ceding the fourth-highest shooting clip in this range. I like to check this helpful shooting allowance index throughout the season to identify the teams I can confidently stream against with interior scorers or for finding ideal DFS matchups.
Deep frequency
I talked about shot frequency a good deal this offseason as a quick means to understand a team's shooting philosophy. For example, the Rockets are shooting from beyond the arc with historic frequency, as 56.3 percent of their shots have come from 3-point range.
We know specialists such as Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson can buoy 3-point production for fantasy managers, but I think the market should be more forgiving of Trevor Ariza's sluggish start; he's taking almost the same amount of shots from 3-point range as the past three seasons in Houston but is sinking just a quarter of them, down from a three-year average of 35.4 percent on significant volume. Ariza has also averaged 1.9 steals over the previous three campaigns, suggesting he's due for a bounce back as one of fantasy's better 3-and-D contributors (Ariza is available in 35 percent of ESPN leagues).
You already knew Houston employed a progressive space-driven scheme, but I find it intriguing to see the Grizzlies fourth in the NBA in 3-point frequency after finishing in the middle of the pack last season. The average team shot 31.6 percent of its shots from 3-point range last season, now up to 35.3 percent. When looking to add 3-point support or when inspecting a team's offensive agenda, shot frequency affords us a macro look at offensive agendas around the league.