Miami Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane finished the 2023 fantasy football season ranked a stunning fourth and fifth, respectively, in ESPN PPR points per game.
Mostert, a 31-year-old journeyman in his second season with the Dolphins, achieved his statistical notoriety by scoring 21 touchdowns, a league-leading 18 of them rushing. Achane, a 21-year-old rookie from Texas A&M, was incredibly efficient, averaging what would have been a modern running back record 7.8 yards per rush, if he had enough attempts to qualify for the rushing title.
Fast-forward to this summer, and few rightfully believe Mostert is going to score touchdowns with this wild frequency again, which is why he often remains available in the 10th round in many ESPN average live drafts, outside the top 100 players. Mostert is old for a running back, durability has hardly been a strength throughout his inconsistent career and narratives tend to drive ADP results.
Meanwhile, Achane may be the fastest, most explosive runner in the sport, and he is more than nine years younger. It may seem obvious to doubt Mostert, and he takes a major hit in drafts, even though only four running backs scored more PPR points last season! As a result, many covet Achane, who takes no such hit and is going as a second-round pick in many leagues, but this all seems a bit too convenient an argument, and wrong.
Therein lies the issue, and the key reason why Achane, awesome as everyone agrees he is, isn't likely to show up on any of my fantasy football teams this season.