Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Daniel Jones, Giants (at Vikings). Thanks in large part to his rushing prowess, Jones has found himself 11th at his position in fantasy points. His 86.3 fantasy points on rushing plays is fifth most among quarterbacks and accounts for 38% of his fantasy production; he's also minimized turnovers, with seven combined interceptions and lost fumbles in 14 games, after averaging 1.29 per game in his first three seasons. He has been a weekly two-quarterback or superflex league starter but also a viable standard league plug-in, especially when facing matchups as favorable as this one.
Five of the past six starting quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have scored 17.46 fantasy points or better, a group that includes Mac Jones (23.28 in Week 12), Mike White (17.46, Week 13) and Jared Goff (26.10, Week 14). That covers a span during which the Vikings have afforded the position the seventh-most points per game (19.93), mostly due to injuries that cost cornerbacks Andrew Booth Jr., Cameron Dantzler Sr. and Akayleb Evans some time.
Others to like:
Geno Smith (Seahawks, at Chiefs) has exceeded 19 fantasy points in six of his past seven games, and the Chiefs have seen five of their past six opposing primary quarterbacks score at least 18.94 points against them.
Tom Brady (Buccaneers, at Cardinals) has generally played to his matchups this season, so one with the Cardinals, whose 2.2 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added in 2022 ranks eighth-most in the league, should make him a viable Week 16 starter.
Matchup to avoid: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (at Jets). He's one of the week's toughest calls. On one hand, Lawrence is in the midst of a massive hot streak, scoring a fifth-best-among-quarterbacks 139.20 fantasy points in his past six games (which also spans his bye week, so his 23.2 per-game average is actually fourth-best).
On the other, the Jets represent one of the toughest matchups for quarterbacks, their minus-3.2 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season fifth-fewest. Kirk Cousins (11.82 points in Week 13) and Jared Goff (14.08, Week 15) had quiet days recently against the Jets. Lawrence is coming off a strong game against a similarly tough defense in the Cowboys (26.82), so continued success isn't entirely improbable, but he's likely to need to do more with his legs in this game, à la Josh Allen in his two productive performances against the Jets (24.80 points in Week 9, 20.58 in Week 14). Lawrence is more of a 12- or 14-team starter than one in standard leagues this week.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs (versus Seahawks). He's coming off back-to-back 30 PPR fantasy point performances, the only running back to reach that threshold in either week. Since the Chiefs' Week 9 bye, he has a running back-leading 86.3 PPR fantasy points in the receiving game.
That latter point is especially relevant to this matchup, as the Seahawks have surrendered the third-most PPR fantasy points per target (1.73) this season, not to mention have given up some big games to notable pass-catching backs, including Alvin Kamara (23.4 points in Week 5), Austin Ekeler (36.7, Week 7), Josh Jacobs (48.3, Week 12) and Christian McCaffrey (25.8, Week 15). McKinnon, who has shaped up as one of three primary targets in the Chiefs' offense of late (Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster), should continue to handle the third-down chores and stands to have another big week.
Others to like:
Raheem Mostert (Dolphins, versus Packers) has re-emerged as the Dolphins' primary running back, with greater than 70% offensive snaps played and 12 touches in back-to-back weeks, and the opposing Packers have surrendered the fifth-most points per rushing attempt to the position in the past five weeks (0.82).
Najee Harris (Steelers, versus Raiders) has been more of a volume-based fantasy option this season than last, but another 20-touch week would be welcomed against a Raiders defense that has the fourth-most Adjusted Fantasy Points Added (4.3) for the season.
Matchup to avoid: Joe Mixon, Bengals (at Patriots). As with Lawrence, this is less of a "sit him" mandate than a need to discuss his unfavorable matchup. The Patriots have been the league's second-toughest defense against running backs this season (minus-4.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added), and James Conner's 23.4 PPR fantasy points against them two weeks ago was the only instance in which they surrendered more than 16.5 points to any individual.
Mixon, since his Week 14 return from a concussion, has played 60% of the Bengals' offensive snaps and totaled 23.0 points on 32 touches in two games, so there was already some performance-based concern with him. Ultimately, he's not the RB1-caliber player this week than he was shaping up to be in his pre-injury weeks.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: DJ Moore, Panthers (versus Lions). He has 15 targets and 39.2 PPR fantasy points in Sam Darnold's three games since taking back over as the Panthers' starting quarterback, but Moore's weekly output has vacillated, including a 20.3 point Week 12 and 0.6 point Week 14. It's therefore tough to trust him in these critical fantasy weeks, but at least he easily has the team target-share lead during that time (26%), not to mention this extremely favorable matchup working for him.
In the past five weeks, 10 different wide receivers have scored 13.6 PPR fantasy points or more against the Lions, with WR1s averaging 19.8 points.
Others to like:
Darius Slayton (Giants, at Vikings) has the Giants' target-share lead during the past three weeks (20%), and his big-play ability is a plus against this Vikings defense allowing the third-most catches of 20-plus yards during that same time span (10).
Elijah Moore (Jets, versus Jaguars) has re-emerged with 17 total targets in the past two weeks, which makes him a viable WR3/flex in larger leagues going up against the Jaguars, whose 4.1 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season is fourth-most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs (versus Seahawks). Though the Seahawks have been awful at defending both running backs and tight ends this season, one area in which they've been top-notch defensively is against wide receivers. Their minus-5.1 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added is third-fewest in the league, and the team hasn't allowed a 20-point wide receiver since Week 7.
Smith-Schuster has served as one of Patrick Mahomes' three primary targets -- along with Travis Kelce and the aforementioned McKinnon -- in recent weeks, but this is a game in which Mahomes might lean more on the others, accounting for the matchup.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Evan Engram, Jaguars (at Jets). While the Jets' defense has been consistently excellent all season, a huge factor in the team's 7-7 record and playoff-contender status, one area in which the team has struggled has been against opposing tight ends. In just the past two weeks, Dawson Knox scored 14.1 PPR fantasy points on seven targets against this defense (Week 14), and Brock Wright managed a 51-yard touchdown reception on blown coverage against the Jets (Week 15).
Engram has become a huge factor in the Jaguars' passing game, with 32 targets combined the past three weeks, and he'll need to again do so considering the difficulty of this matchup for Trevor Lawrence and his wide receivers.
Others to like:
Chigoziem Okonkwo (Titans, versus Texans) has at least five targets and 10 PPR fantasy points in each of his past three games, and the Texans have allowed three games of at least 11.5 points to individual tight ends in their past five.
Matchup to avoid: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (at Cowboys). While it's great to see him likely back in action this week, after the Eagles activated Goedert from injured reserve on Tuesday, this matchup gives his fantasy managers reason to consider a wait-and-see approach.
The Cowboys have struggled much more against wide receivers (22nd-ranked 1.3 Adjusted Fantasy Points added) than tight ends (third-ranked minus-3.2 Adjusted FPA) in the past five weeks, with the aforementioned Engram managing only 14.2 PPR fantasy points despite seeing a whopping 10 targets just last week.