Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Field Yates breaks down Box Nix's high Week 8 projection in a favorable matchup against the Panthers.
Matchups highlight: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (vs. Carolina Panthers). Nix has exhibited excellent mobility in his brief NFL career, delivering 43.5 fantasy points on rushing plays (fifth best among QBs), and he has begun showing growth as a passer, completing 63% of his attempts and tossing four touchdown passes in the past three weeks. Now Nix faces a Panthers defense that is altogether a mess, surrendering a fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (18.6) despite facing only two who rank among the top 15 for the season (Joe Burrow, Week 4; Jayden Daniels, Week 7). Incidentally, Daniels was limited to 10 snaps in that game yet managed 50 rushing yards. Nix's statistical floor is remarkably high for this matchup, and if the score remains close deep into the game, he'll have a shot at 25-plus points.
Others to like: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Jacksonville Jaguars); C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis Colts).
Matchup to avoid: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Buffalo Bills). The season's No. 7 quarterback in terms of fantasy points, Smith's performance thus far has been propped up by an exceedingly pass-heavy game plan (NFL-high 39.9 pass attempts per game). From that standpoint, he's a tough player to bench, though he has struggled against tougher defenses thus far, averaging 13.9 fantasy points against the Broncos, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers, teams that either rank or project to rank among the best at defending quarterbacks. The Bills are another tough assignment, having allowed only one quarterback to exceed 18 points against them (Lamar Jackson, 23.64 in Week 4). Jackson, however, generated 9.4 of those points rushing, an aspect of the game that isn't Smith's forte.
Running backs
Field Yates, Daniel Dopp and Mike Clay discuss Kareem Hunt's role in the Chiefs' offense heading into his Week 8 matchup vs. the Raiders.
Matchups highlight: Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (at Las Vegas Raiders). Hunt has dominated the Chiefs' backfield work during their past two games, playing 62% of the offensive snaps while accounting for 49 of their 62 RB carries, and in those games he has 41.0 fantasy points. In time, Hunt is likely to see competition from Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco, both of whom are on the mend, but for now he looks locked into a 20-touch weekly role. It's fortuitous timing, considering the Raiders represent one of the game's most favorable matchups for running backs. They are the only defense to have surrendered a 15-point performance to a running back in each of the season's first seven weeks.
Others to like: J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New Orleans Saints); Javonte Williams, Broncos (vs. Panthers).
Matchup to avoid: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (at Texans). Taylor's 17.6 fantasy PPG, fourth best among running backs since his 2020 NFL debut, probably has his managers assuming he's a must-start anytime he's healthy enough to play. Considering he's coming off a high ankle sprain, and facing one of the league's tougher matchups, Taylor isn't as clear a starter as you might think. The Texans held Taylor to just 10.8 points in their Week 1 meeting and have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to running backs for the season (17.9) while also boasting the league's third-best Successful Play Rate on opponents' rushes.
Wide receivers
Field Yates explains why Packers' WR Romeo Doubs is a trustworthy start as a wide receiver coming off of the fantasy waiver wire.
Matchups highlight: Romeo Doubs, Packers (at Jaguars). The Jaguars continue to be a sieve to opposing wide receivers, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position (40.6), while matching the Panthers for the most individual 15-point games allowed to wide receivers (eight). Last week was the first time in 2024 the Jaguars didn't see a wide receiver scale that 15-point plateau, but they were also facing a rebuilding New England Patriots team that has nowhere near the receiving depth the Packers do. Since returning from his Week 5 team suspension, Doubs has played 77% of the Packers' offensive snaps, has run 57 routes, seen 14 targets and has 37.3 fantasy points, all tops among the team's wide receivers. He's nearly as appealing as more-heavily rostered teammate Jayden Reed.
Others to like: Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers); Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore Ravens).
Matchup to avoid: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (vs. Chicago Bears). Jayden Daniels' emergence has been a godsend for McLaurin, the No. 12 wide receiver in fantasy thus far. In the past five weeks alone, McLaurin has averaged 7.4 targets and 18.1 fantasy points per game. Daniels' (rib) uncertain status for Week 8, however, casts a shadow upon McLaurin's immediate fantasy prospects, and this matchup further complicates the wide receiver's appeal. The Bears have afforded the position the fourth-fewest points per target for the season (1.49), with only two individuals exceeding 12.2 points against them.
Tight ends
Mike Clay discusses why fantasy managers should sell high on Ravens TE Mark Andrews due to his limited target share.
Matchups highlight: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (at Seahawks). Though he hasn't broken out in nearly the way that many -- this columnist included -- thought he would this season, Kincaid continues to enjoy the kind of usage that supports him taking a big step forward statistically. His 20.3% target share is fifth best among tight ends, and his 25.3% targets-per-route rate is ninth best. With Amari Cooper now on the roster, Kincaid should see more advantageous matchups in coverage, which could well begin with this plus matchup. The Seahawks have had five tight ends exceed 9.0 fantasy points against them this season, covering the only five fantasy-relevant names they have faced in 2024.
Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Ravens (at Browns). Back-to-back games with a touchdown provide some encouragement with one of the season's most disappointing players to date, but Andrews isn't in good shape matchups-wise this week. The Browns have limited tight ends to 1.19 fantasy points per target this season, third fewest in the league, and they held both Brock Bowers and Zach Ertz to their worst single-game scores this season and Jake Ferguson to his second worst.