Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Eric Karabell discusses why Russell Wilson is an outstanding fantasy pick for week 11 vs. the Ravens.
Matchups highlight: Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Baltimore Ravens). Coach Mike Tomlin's decision to switch back to Wilson in Week 7 has paid huge dividends, as Wilson has averaged 18.9 fantasy points and the Steelers have won all three games since. During that time, Wilson has averaged greater depth of target (9.1) than he has in any full season since 2021, making good use of his top deep threat, George Pickens. It's his improvement in that department that makes Wilson such an intriguing fantasy play going up against the Ravens, who rank among the worst-performing defenses against vertical passes. Five of the past six quarterbacks to face the Ravens have thrown for multiple touchdowns and scored 20-plus fantasy points; Bo Nix (17.72 points, Week 9) was the one outlier.
Others to like: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Cincinnati Bengals); C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys).
Matchup to avoid: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears). The bye week might've provided a good opportunity for the groin injury that knocked Love from Week 8 and threatened to sideline him for Week 9 to fully heal, but the matchup offers him no similar respite. Love's performance was shaky in his past two games, including a 10.92-point effort in which he was clearly limited by the injury but also facing a similarly challenging matchup in the Detroit Lions. Only two quarterbacks in nine games have scored 15 or more fantasy points in a game against the Bears (Trevor Lawrence in Week 6 and Jayden Daniels in Week 8), and only one has thrown for multiple touchdown passes against them (Lawrence).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at New Orleans Saints). We have yet to see the version of Chubb who was a top-10 fantasy running back in both 2019 and 2022, but in his defense, he has played only three games since recovering from knee surgery and his schedule in those three contests was fairly challenging. The Bengals, Ravens and Chargers, his Weeks 7-9 foes, rank eighth, 11th and sixth in Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season. Chubb did, however, handle 42 of the backfield's 56 rushing attempts, and the rest over the bye week should only strengthen his grasp on his role as the primary back. This is his first plus matchup since his return, as the opposing Saints have seen six different running backs score 16-plus PPR fantasy points, three of which had 26-plus, against them in the past five weeks.
Others to like: David Montgomery, Lions (versus Jacksonville Jaguars); Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (at Buffalo Bills).
Matchup to avoid: James Cook, Bills (versus Chiefs). Cook has scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points in five of his nine games and ranks 11th in total points scored among running backs, but he has also played almost entirely into the hands of his matchups. In his three toughest matchups, using Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season, Cook has averaged 11.0 points, whereas against his three easiest matchups, he has averaged 19.7. The Chiefs will be his toughest test all season, as they rank first in the category both for the season and over the past five weeks. They haven't had a single running back exceed 14 points against them all year, and their 0.44 points allowed per rushing attempt to the position is easily the league's fewest.
Wide receivers
Mike Clay explains why he expects a great fantasy game for George Pickens vs. the Ravens.
Matchups highlight: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Saints (versus Browns). Admittedly, it's tough to trust a receiver who has seen only 13 targets all season and who in his Week 10 breakout performance did all of his damage by catching all three of the targets he saw, but between his rising role and this matchup, he's a player to consider in larger leagues. Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) are both on injured reserve, leaving the Saints' targets mostly up for grabs, and Valdes-Scantling brings both the experience and big-play ability that the team desperately needs. The Browns, by the way, have allowed the eighth-worst passer rating on vertical throws this season, and they saw six different wide receivers score 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them in their four games leading into their Week 10 bye.
Others to like: Pickens, Steelers (versus Ravens); DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots (versus Los Angeles Rams).
Matchup to avoid: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (at Philadelphia Eagles). Jayden Daniels and his receivers have their work cut out for them on "Thursday Night Football," and it's not merely the short week or the fact that their opponent stands atop the NFC East with a 7-2 record, one game ahead in the loss column. The Eagles have been the hottest team in the league against the pass, ranking first in Adjusted Fantasy Points Added against both quarterbacks and wide receivers over the past five weeks, during which time the only wide receiver to exceed nine PPR fantasy points against them was all-world performer Ja'Marr Chase (20.4, Week 8). Slot cornerback Cooper DeJean has been the Eagles' biggest standout during that time, a matchup McLaurin should avoid on most of his routes, but Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay, who man the outside, have also played well over the past month.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins (versus Las Vegas Raiders). Those seeking a fill-in tight end should consider adding Smith, who has averaged 11.4 PPR fantasy points and 5.8 targets in four games since the Dolphins' bye week. The Raiders have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends this season, their 2.11 points per target allowed being the fifth most in the league. In their final two games leading into their Week 10 bye, they surrendered a combined 68.7 points on 26 targets to the Chiefs' Travis Kelce and Noah Gray and the Bengals' Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample.
Matchup to avoid: Evan Engram, Jaguars (at Lions). His eight targets and 10.0 PPR fantasy points while working with Mac Jones in Week 10 offered encouragement that he can still be a top-10 fantasy tight end in the wake of Trevor Lawrence's injury, but be forewarned that Engram's upside has been diminished by the change at quarterback. The Lions represent one of the toughest matchups Engram and the Jaguars will face all season, as only one tight end -- the relatively unknown AJ Barner -- has scored 10-plus points against them. Trey McBride, who scored 5.5 points on six targets in Week 3 against the Lions, serves a good volume-oriented comparison point for what to expect from Engram this week.