Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 335 329 -6 13 989 9 83 656 5 2. Bijan Robinson , ATL 231 264 33 13 962 5 56 424 1 3. Jonathan Taylor , IND 231 309 78 13 1066 11 34 220 1 4. De'Von Achane , MIA 225 272 47 13 859 4 58 421 3 5. Javonte Williams , DAL 219 210 -9 13 907 10 36 248 2 6. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 216 308 92 13 798 6 53 385 2 7. Chase Brown , CIN 205 186 -19 13 755 4 53 397 2 8. Josh Jacobs , GB 200 208 7 12 886 10 32 208 0 9. Ashton Jeanty , LV 199 183 -16 13 812 5 48 318 2 10. James Cook , BUF 190 235 44 13 1016 7 26 184 0 11. Saquon Barkley , PHI 189 187 -2 13 920 4 36 266 2 12. Kyren Williams , LAR 188 203 14 13 836 8 27 217 1 13. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 184 190 6 13 866 7 32 214 1 14. Derrick Henry , BAL 180 189 8 13 872 11 16 113 0 15. D'Andre Swift , CHI 168 169 1 12 742 6 33 223 0 16. Breece Hall , NYJ 163 173 10 13 837 3 30 231 2 17. Rico Dowdle , CAR 162 183 21 13 817 4 30 198 1 18. Jaylen Warren , PIT 156 159 3 12 675 6 30 190 1 19. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 155 150 -5 13 353 4 48 310 2 20. Woody Marks , HOU 148 125 -23 13 673 5 23 186 2 21. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 142 139 -3 13 725 5 21 145 1 22. Tony Pollard , TEN 141 136 -5 13 737 4 27 196 0 23. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 140 155 15 12 800 6 14 100 0 24. Rachaad White , TB 136 122 -15 13 489 5 32 219 1 25. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 136 148 13 13 551 3 32 211 1 26. Kareem Hunt , KC 133 132 -1 13 580 8 15 104 1 27. RJ Harvey , DEN 131 151 20 13 385 4 35 238 2 28. David Montgomery , DET 130 144 13 13 520 6 21 147 0 29. Alvin Kamara , NO 129 101 -29 11 582 2 32 235 1 30. Cam Skattebo , NYG 121 128 6 8 425 5 27 177 1 31. Kimani Vidal , LAC 118 109 -9 10 561 5 16 111 1 32. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 117 116 -1 12 531 7 10 81 1 33. Kyle Monangai , CHI 115 118 2 13 574 5 17 123 0 34. Bam Knight , ARI 114 93 -21 11 340 5 23 181 1 35. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 110 116 6 10 636 4 12 79 0 36. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 110 110 0 11 476 1 27 177 2 37. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 108 88 -20 10 411 5 18 174 1 38. Jordan Mason , MIN 103 115 12 13 572 4 13 79 0 39. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 98 108 10 13 461 6 11 68 0 40. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 98 92 -6 11 486 1 25 173 0 41. Nick Chubb , HOU 95 83 -12 13 475 4 15 113 0 42. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 88 91 3 13 519 3 12 75 0 43. Blake Corum , LAR 87 86 -1 13 427 5 8 63 0 44. Aaron Jones , MIN 87 83 -4 9 342 1 25 181 1 45. Bucky Irving , TB 86 104 18 6 453 1 19 134 0 46. Omarion Hampton , LAC 85 92 6 6 348 3 19 129 0 47. Michael Carter , ARI 80 66 -14 9 228 1 25 185 1 48. Devin Singletary , NYG 80 73 -7 13 351 4 10 74 1 49. Tyjae Spears , TEN 77 74 -3 9 208 1 29 193 1 50. Emanuel Wilson , GB 76 77 1 13 363 3 13 78 0 51. Dylan Sampson , CLE 75 76 0 13 196 0 27 182 1 52. Isiah Pacheco , KC 75 69 -6 10 404 1 16 99 0 53. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 73 71 -2 13 318 4 11 73 0 54. Sean Tucker , TB 67 78 11 13 313 3 8 55 0 55. Jerome Ford , CLE 64 44 -20 13 104 1 25 175 1 56. Brashard Smith , KC 63 45 -19 13 132 1 22 144 1 57. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 58 63 5 11 319 4 1 14 0 58. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 55 52 -3 13 231 3 7 43 0 59. Ty Johnson , BUF 54 60 5 13 113 1 20 142 1 60. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 53 54 1 13 295 1 7 56 1 61. Devin Neal , NO 53 50 -3 9 216 1 16 108 0 62. Justice Hill , BAL 53 65 13 10 81 1 23 154 0 63. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 51 60 9 13 143 1 20 129 0 64. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 47 45 -2 13 123 0 16 146 0 65. Samaje Perine , CIN 46 44 -2 11 228 1 9 65 0 66. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 44 44 1 13 5 1 17 149 1 67. Tyler Badie , DEN 43 29 -14 12 26 0 20 148 1 68. Emari Demercado , ARI 40 43 3 9 145 1 10 65 1 69. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 70. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 71. Zavier Scott , MIN 36 34 -2 12 122 0 11 87 1 72. Ray Davis , BUF 32 28 -4 13 137 1 5 42 0 73. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 31 42 10 9 140 1 8 45 0 74. Kendre Miller , NO 31 33 2 7 208 1 4 28 0 75. Raheem Mostert , LV 27 26 0 10 98 0 9 59 0 76. Jaylen Wright , MIA 26 24 -2 6 169 1 3 20 0 77. Chris Brooks , GB 25 22 -3 13 47 0 10 74 0 78. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 79. LeQuint Allen , JAC 22 21 -1 13 58 0 8 53 0 80. Ameer Abdullah , IND 20 21 1 9 39 1 6 44 0 81. Antonio Gibson , NE 20 23 3 5 98 1 2 19 0 82. Jaret Patterson , LAC 20 19 -1 4 120 1 0 0 0 83. Trevor Etienne , CAR 18 12 -7 13 88 1 2 16 0 84. Hunter Luepke , DAL 18 22 4 13 12 0 7 52 1 85. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 86. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 87. Will Shipley , PHI 16 15 -2 11 49 0 6 45 0 88. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 16 17 1 4 75 0 4 21 0 89. Terrell Jennings , NE 16 15 -1 7 79 1 1 6 0 90. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 15 8 -7 9 108 0 2 10 0 91. George Holani , SEA 15 21 6 11 96 0 2 13 0 92. DJ Giddens , IND 14 7 -7 7 69 1 1 10 0 93. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 93. Tank Bigsby , PHI 11 18 7 12 87 0 1 5 0 94. Adam Prentice , DEN 14 16 2 13 27 0 6 39 0 95. Jaydon Blue , DAL 12 8 -4 4 98 0 1 5 0 96. Zamir White , LV 12 7 -4 4 46 0 4 25 0 97. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 12 15 3 13 17 0 5 34 0 98. Andrew Beck , NYJ 11 15 4 13 0 0 4 36 1 99. Alec Ingold , MIA 11 10 -1 13 8 0 5 47 0 100. Hassan Haskins , LAC 11 8 -2 8 50 0 3 23 0 101. Malik Davis , DAL 10 16 6 7 69 1 0 0 0 102. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 103. Rasheen Ali , BAL 10 8 -2 11 28 0 3 26 0 104. Julius Chestnut , TEN 9 4 -5 13 35 1 1 15 0 105. Tyler Goodson , IND 9 4 -5 8 21 0 2 14 1 106. AJ Dillon , PHI 9 8 -1 6 50 0 2 13 0 107. Dylan Laube , LV 8 5 -3 13 25 0 3 22 0 108. Raheim Sanders , CLE 8 6 -2 1 8 1 0 0 0 109. British Brooks , HOU 8 2 -6 11 9 1 0 0 0 110. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 6 4 -2 2 32 0 2 9 0 111. Dameon Pierce , HOU 6 3 -3 4 41 0 1 6 0 112. Tahj Brooks , CIN 5 3 -2 12 40 0 0 5 0 113. D'Ernest Johnson , ARI 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 113. D'Ernest Johnson , NE 4 1 -3 3 15 0 0 0 0 114. Evan Hull , NO 4 4 -1 2 28 0 1 5 0 115. Cam Akers , MIN 4 7 3 3 20 0 1 6 0 116. Nathan Carter , ATL 4 4 0 5 39 0 0 0 0 117. Brittain Brown , CHI 4 10 6 2 21 0 1 7 0 118. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 3 4 1 7 30 0 0 0 0 119. Trayveon Williams , LAC 3 1 -2 3 13 0 1 5 0 120. Elijah Mitchell , KC 3 0 -3 1 0 0 1 9 0 121. Amar Johnson , LAC 2 1 -1 2 10 0 1 5 0 122. Josh Williams , TB 2 1 -1 3 20 0 0 0 0 123. Jacardia Wright , SEA 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 0 0 124. Velus Jones Jr. , NO 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 124. Velus Jones Jr. , SEA 2 3 1 2 18 0 0 0 0 125. Craig Reynolds , DET 2 0 -1 7 14 0 0 0 0 126. Owen Wright , TB 2 1 -1 3 15 0 0 0 0 127. Jacob Saylors , DET 1 1 0 12 8 0 0 0 0 128. Audric Estime , NO 1 1 0 3 11 0 0 0 0 129. Patrick Ricard , BAL 1 0 -1 7 3 0 1 6 0 130. Reggie Gilliam , BUF 1 1 0 13 0 0 1 5 0 131. C.J. Ham , MIN 1 2 0 7 0 0 1 6 0
