Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don't be surprised if ... Arizona Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett continues his QB1 play
This is surprising for all of us, but Brissett, a 32-year-old journeyman with his sixth franchise in as many seasons, has topped 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and averaged 20 fantasy points over his seven starts, and I don't see this stopping anytime soon. Yes, the Cardinals play the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday. So? Bryce Young scored 22.54 points with three touchdown passes in beating the Rams on Sunday. Brissett may not get a win, but he will get his numbers.
How is this happening? NFL fans and fantasy managers tend to write off quarterbacks who struggle early in their careers, then take way too long to acknowledge when things have changed. It happened in recent seasons with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Jared Goff. This season, it has been Daniel Jones (more on him later). Who knows where Brissett plays next season, but he may have a better chance to stick around in Arizona than Kyler Murray. It remains unlikely Murray plays again this season. Brissett would have to get hurt.
Brissett is consistently scoring among the top 10 fantasy QBs each week, though fantasy managers still seem to be questioning it, as he is rostered in only 48.6% of standard formats. I ranked him 10th this week, even against the Rams, though I can't justify it in Week 15 at Houston, against that defense and with no teams on bye. That's different. Add Brissett for Weeks 16 and 17 versus the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals, though.
Other QB thoughts:
I don't want to imply this awesome Daniel Jones run of success is over, but I don't like where it is headed. I would roster Brissett over Jones now, but neither for Week 15 (Jones plays at Seattle). Jones is playing through a fractured fibula, and it shows in his sudden and expected lack of mobility. He's compromised! Jones' running ability was a key part of his fantasy appeal, but his work as a passer seemed a bit unsustainable based on his record. He completed barely half his passes in Week 13. Fantasy managers may keep playing him because he still ranks as a top-10 QB this season, but past numbers don't matter as much as recent trends. Look ahead.
Speaking of running, Patrick Mahomes is not a safe bet this week against the mighty Texans defense, though I see him adding points with his legs. He must. Mahomes has neither rushed for more than 30 yards in a game since Week 5 nor scored a rushing touchdown since Week 6. The Texans are tough on quarterbacks when they pass, but they do permit 17.6 rushing yards per game to the position, which is 14th most. Perhaps this isn't a top-10 fantasy QB outing, but I have Mahomes one spot ahead of Brissett.
I thought the Minnesota Vikings made the right decision to let surprising Sam Darnold go to Seattle so they could give the starting job to J.J. McCarthy, who certainly looked the part of future NFL passer while at Michigan. Yeah, that isn't working out at all. You may not care about McCarthy (concussion) anymore, even in superflex formats, but WR Justin Jefferson remains universally rostered, and without a signature fantasy game since Week 5. How does this fellow have fewer touchdowns than Isaac TeSlaa, who has only six receptions all season, or Los Angeles Rams third-string TE Davis Allen, who has 17 grabs? Blame the quarterback play. That said, I can't sit Jefferson against Washington this week.
Don't be surprised if ... Los Angeles Chargers RBs Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal run all over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday
The Chicago Bears, a strong running team with a remade, top offensive line, embarrassed the Eagles last Friday, in South Philadelphia, for 281 rushing yards. That hardly means the Chargers, with a patchwork offensive line missing key players, a starting QB recovering from surgery on his non-throwing hand just days ago and a rookie RB who hasn't played since Week 5, will match the feat, but let's assume they have some semblance of success running the football, especially now that the Eagles are missing their best defensive lineman, Jalen Carter (shoulders).
Hampton has recovered from his ankle injury. He was a first-round pick in the NFL draft for a reason. Vidal, in his second season, ran for 126 yards in Week 13. Expect some version of a timeshare and the freefalling Eagles to struggle to stop it, just like last week against D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. Vidal remains available in 35% of ESPN standard leagues. I doubt the Chargers give Hampton all the volume, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in Week 13 with Bucky Irving, who also hadn't played in two months. Vidal is a legit flex option.
Other RB thoughts:
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has played against the Jacksonville Jaguars seven times in his career. In three home games, he has averaged 28 rushes for a ridiculous 182 rushing yards and scored four touchdowns. Not surprisingly, the Colts won those three games. On the road, things are different. Taylor is 0-4 in Jacksonville (three blowouts), totaling 41 rushing attempts for 172 yards (10 rushes for 43 yards per game) and nary a touchdown. Do you believe in home/road splits in football? You shouldn't, but how can we ignore this information knowing how the Colts' offense has performed lately? We must downgrade Taylor, who perhaps due to those around him, has not been among the top 20 fantasy running backs in two of his past four games. He remains in my top 10, but it's almost more about others around him who are not deserving a better ranking.
I no longer believe we will see Cardinals RB Trey Benson (knee) play again this season, so keep Bam Knight on rosters and as a reasonable flex choice. He has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, and really, he warrants more volume. Oh right, the Cardinals throw 40 times per game now, so nobody runs. My bad.
Don't be surprised if ... Davante Adams outscores Puka Nacua the rest of the season
This statement is precisely why I ranked Adams over Nacua by one spot in Tuesday's rest-of-season rankings. Some will say this amazing string of touchdown catches by Adams over the past six games (11 of them!) is unsustainable, but this is Davante Adams and Matthew Stafford looks his way often near the goal line. The Rams throw the football inside the 5-yard line, and not to Nacua. Don't whine about Kyren Williams, as he is getting his touchdowns, too.
Adams isn't piling on the receptions or the receiving yards, with six catches being his single-game best this season and only one game with more than 100 yards, but Nacua, after a huge beginning to his season, isn't doing as much, either. Nacua looked like he might approach 2,000 receiving yards back in September. He hasn't reached 100 yards since Week 4. He sees more targets than Adams, but they are mostly intermediate passes. Nacua has four touchdown grabs this season. Rely on both Los Angeles Rams stars, even in Week 16 against the Seahawks, but Adams, even with less volume, currently boasts more fantasy upside.
Other WR thoughts:
Jakobi Meyers really has made a huge impact on the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense. In fact, Meyers is nearly matching star RB Travis Etienne Jr. for fantasy points since joining the franchise for Week 10, despite far less volume. Meyers and TE Brenton Strange are the Trevor Lawrence receiving options to rely on, and big numbers are coming against a Colts defense that is vulnerable sans CB Sauce Gardner (calf). The efficient Meyers scored touchdowns in each of the past two games, and he doesn't drop passes. Disappointing Brian Thomas Jr. has only one touchdown this season, and six drops in nine games. He has battled shoulder and ankle injuries this season. Forget about his rookie season or what round you drafted him in. Play Meyers instead.
Statistical things will turn around for Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield because he has WR Chris Godwin Jr. (leg) back in the lineup, and Mike Evans (collarbone) isn't far behind. Godwin, still available in more than 30% of ESPN leagues, had his quickness and mobility back in Week 13, averaging 26 yards on his three receptions. Evans should practice this week, and if he suits up Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, we may have to consider Evans, Godwin and awesome rookie Emeka Egbuka all among the top 30 wide receivers. Egbuka has been statistically quiet for more than a month, but it's only somewhat his fault, as many of Mayfield's throws have been off target. OK, Mayfield isn't fully healthy himself, but he wouldn't need to be with his top targets playing.
It's always dangerous to claim one is buying into the New York Jets' passing offense, but newcomer Adonai Mitchell looks like a breakout option and perhaps even a WR2 for the rest of the season. No, Tyrod Taylor isn't exactly Joe Namath (or even Richard Todd), but he is throwing the football down the field, and Mitchell was open for most of his targets last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. The Jets still don't throw a lot, but Mitchell has earned nearly a third of the targets since he arrived. Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has more receiving yards than all Jets WRs combined, but that will change soon. Also, I'm surprised rookie TE Mason Taylor isn't seeing more targets. The LSU product has TE1 potential if he gets the football.