Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don't be surprised if ... Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott finishes No. 2 at his position in season scoring
Prescott comes off a disappointing 11.96 points in Sunday night's loss to the Minnesota Vikings, one that effectively ended Dallas' remote chances of making the playoffs. That doesn't mean Prescott and his buddies don't have anything to play for, though. Prescott leads the NFL in attempts, completions and passing yards, and he is just a few points away from catching Patrick Mahomes (out for season), Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford in fantasy points. Nobody is catching Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (unless he sits a game) for the top spot. Prescott, fantasy's No. 2 QB in 2019 and No. 3 in 2023, has been here before.
The Cowboys host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, then travel to face the lowly Washington Commanders and even worse New York Giants in Week 18. Fantasy managers always worry about their players participating during the final week. These Cowboys have individual motivation. Prescott might not reach 5,000 passing yards for the first time, but he can get close. RB Javonte Williams and WR George Pickens are playing for contracts. The Cowboys aren't going to stop scoring points (or permitting them). They may score 100 points in three games.
Other QB thoughts:
Perhaps many have tired of my weekly Jacoby Brissett rants, but the Arizona Cardinals QB has been a worthy fantasy starter in each of his nine starts, regardless of matchup. This week's foe is the Atlanta Falcons, not exactly the 1985 Bears. Now is also a wise time to think ahead in keeper/dynasty formats. I admit that investing in the journeyman Brissett, 33, for the future feels wrong, but who knows, he may be Arizona's starter in 2026, or perhaps a Steeler or Jet. One can certainly do worse in superflex formats. Add Brissett and competent San Francisco 49ers backup Mac Jones before the season ends. They could start next season for any one of myriad teams lacking a starting QB.
Few would view New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough as even a contender for being the best rookie at this position, but he is the one I would rely on these final weeks. WR Chris Olave is No. 8 at his position in season scoring, and I want to see how else the team builds around Shough for next season. Tennessee Titans No. 1 pick Cam Ward has shown some signs, but he is rather inaccurate and not a runner. We all hope Giants runner Jaxson Dart has a bright future, but there's a Jayden Daniels feel around his ability to avoid injuries, too. Dart almost invites hard hits with his running style. Shough has played well -- and maturely -- lately, and he finishes up with a wonderfully appealing trifecta of yuck in the New York Jets, Titans and Falcons.
I don't know how any fantasy managers could rely on new Kansas City Chiefs starter Gardner Minshew this week, even against the Titans defense. The proud Chiefs, like the Cowboys, will not win the Super Bowl, but while I don't see Dallas sitting players, I do see the Chiefs doing this with anyone remotely important battling an injury. Future Hall of Fame TE Travis Kelce might play his final home game (final game?) in Week 17 against the Denver Broncos. Last season, the Super Bowl-bound Chiefs had nothing to play for in Week 18, and QB Carson Wentz led them to a 38-0 loss at Denver. I don't think Andy Reid cares if the Chiefs end up with six, seven or eight wins.
Don't be surprised if ... two Lions finish among the top 10 wide receiver scorers
Jameson Williams scored nary a fantasy point in Week 7 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and again in Week 12 against the Giants. He saw five targets in those games, catching none of them. Williams scored double-digit fantasy points in two of the first seven games, which seemed like a waste. Lions coach Dan Campbell gets credit for turning Williams' season around after he took over playcalling duties in Week 10, but the real big numbers have arrived only recently.
Williams has 21 receptions on 28 targets over the past three games, reaching 26 fantasy points in two of them, and he is just a few points away from being among the top 10 wide receiver scorers for this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is safely there. The Lions must keep winning and Jared Goff must keep targeting Williams downfield. I've compared Williams to former Eagles WR DeSean Jackson in the past, for Jackson was a game breaker who never piled on targets. Williams could reach 100 targets for the season, but it isn't enough. Next season, 140 targets!
The Lions finish against the Steelers, Vikings and Bears, with the Steelers and Bears among the easiest teams for wide receivers to accrue fantasy points against. Williams has been dependent on touchdowns the past two seasons, but this recent run of targets is positive for his future. The breakout is finally here.
Other WR thoughts:
Most would never guess that Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson enters this weekend as the No. 9 scorer at his position. Wan'Dale Robinson? Well, Wan-Rob (is that a thing?) scored 30.6 points in Week 12 against the Lions among nine double-digit outings, and he has a chance at 100 receptions and an even better chance for 1,000 receiving yards. Robinson hasn't missed a game. The Giants are bad, and Robinson is more slot option than game breaker, but give a fellow credit. He wasn't among the top 50 WRs on draft day.
I want to recommend 49ers options against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday because the Colts can be thrown on, especially when CB Sauce Gardner (calf) is out. Only five teams permit more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Colts. San Francisco's top target is a running back, and next it is TE George Kittle, but Jauan Jennings is due for a breakout game. Only one 49ers WR has reached 20 points in a game all season (Kendrick Bourne in Week 5), though Jennings has been close and Ricky Pearsall (ankle) just missed in Week 3. Jennings should be more popular. His target share is low for a WR3, but he has touchdowns in five of six games. Expect the 49ers to score more points than Seattle did versus Indy in Week 15.
Don't be surprised if ... two Pittsburgh Steelers finish among the top 20 running back scorers
This seems hard to believe, but Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren are already there, entering Week 16 at Nos. 19 and 20, respectively! If they continue their production these final three weeks, the Steelers would boast the lone tandem to each rank as top-20 options. The only other team that could get there is the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh's Week 16 foe. David Montgomery doesn't earn the touches he used to, but he does have touchdowns in three consecutive games. Most of us would call his fantasy season a disappointment. We sure can't say that about Gainwell's.
The Steelers give Gainwell inconsistent rushing attempts, but he rushed for 80 or more yards in two of four games, and he has six or more receptions in four of five games. It might not feel like it, but that is more than enough to make him a RB2 option moving forward. The Lions are the toughest team to accrue RB fantasy points against, especially in the passing game, but that may be more a function of who they have played. Warren is effective, too, but he has rushed for only 81 yards in the past three games. The Steelers can throw on the Lions. DK Metcalf should thrive. So should Gainwell.
Other RB thoughts:
Most teams' running back tandems have not pleased fantasy managers this season, whether it's the Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers or Titans. The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears have achieved more with their dual running backs lately. One assumes that Blake Corum and Kyle Monangai are rostered in your keeper formats, but they could be legit stars next season.
Coming off a lost season in which he played only four games and ruined fantasy managers, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has not only played in every game this season, but he has handled the largest volume in the league. McCaffrey, pacing for more than 400 touches, could even sail past 1,000 rushing and receiving yards for the second time. He should surpass 100 receptions for the third time. He is 29. Yeah, I missed out in my leagues. I'll miss out again in 2026, because this volume is astounding and one season is hardly predictive of the next. Just ask Saquon Barkley investors.
I half-expect 30 fantasy points for Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals this week. I don't know who will play quarterback for the Dolphins next season, but Achane, who also is pacing for 2,000 scrimmage yards, is in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick. He's a lot younger than McCaffrey. Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are also in the conversation. How does one differentiate here? The first round will see a more even distribution of running backs and wide receivers than in recent seasons.
For those leagues deciding championships in Week 18, start maneuvering those bench spots this week. While the No. 1 seeds might not be decided until the final week, other playoff-bound teams may have little to play for. The Philadelphia Eagles are an obvious one, and perhaps the Buffalo Bills. Might Eagles backup RB Tank Bigsby run for 150 yards in the finale against the Commanders? What about Bills reserve RB Ray Davis against the Jets, or even the Chiefs' Brashard Smith in any week? If you have the bench space and Week 18 matters, stop rostering the likes of unusable WRs like Darnell Mooney and Tre Tucker and think ahead.