While shots on goal is the category we tend to count in fantasy leagues, I find the measurements can be taken a step further when trying to identify which NHL players are driving pucks at the net. A missed shot, as tracked by the NHL, has all the same ingredients as a shot on goal -- it's just that the puck missed the net.
By taking shots on goal, adding missed shots and then dividing by games played, we can get a sense of which players are attempting to take the most shots during a game. And, as we know, attempting a lot of shots per game, whether they hit or miss the net, is a harbinger for fantasy success.
To give the list a sample size cut off, we are just looking at the players among the top 100 for shots on goal at this point of the season. There aren't any surprises at the top of the list. Alex Ovechkin leads the way with 7.33 shots plus missed shots per game, followed by Evander Kane (6.78), Tyler Seguin (6.38) and Nikita Kucherov (5.67). It's at this point where the next players, ranked fifth to ninth in shots plus missed shots per game, warrant some discussion.
Mike Hoffman, LW/RW, Ottawa Senators (5.63 shots plus missed shots per game)
Hoffman's prolific rubber on net totals have come through a combination of playing on the third line and the second power-play unit. It's almost hard to believe that a winger with three consecutive seasons with at least 25 goals is being buried down on the depth chart, but here we are. The injury to Bobby Ryan should open things up, allowing Hoffman a chance to join either Derick Brassard or Kyle Turris on one of the scoring lines and potentially the top power-play unit. He's a buy-low candidate.
Vincent Trocheck, C, Florida Panthers (5.57 shots plus missed shots per game)
Skating on a scoring line, the top power-play unit and the secondary penalty kill unit, Trocheck's 22:32 of average ice time is no joke. The result is a lot of chances to put pucks toward the net and a legitimate chance to build on his mid-50s point totals from the past couple seasons. He's looked connected with newcomers Jamie McGinn and Radim Vrbata at even strength and already has two points on the man advantage. I wouldn't really label it as a breakout, as Trocheck has been fantasy relevant for the past two seasons, but this kind of ice time should lead to significant growth in his counting stats.
Max Pacioretty, RW, Montreal Canadiens (5.50 shots plus missed shots per game)
For what it's worth, Pacioretty is throwing pucks at the net at a career-high pace. They just aren't going in. Look, this Habs team isn't as good as some of the ones in recent seasons, but Montreal isn't this bad either. Even with this slow start, Pacioretty is still a lock for 30-plus goals as soon as the offense finds its footing. He started slow last season, too, scoring just two goals in October (although he also had five assists, which always help in dry spells). As mentioned, his career-high pace for shots, as well as a career-high pace for ice time, will help Pacioretty right the ship before too long.
Rick Nash, RW, New York Rangers (5.44 shots plus missed shots per game)
Among forwards putting in at least 16 minutes per game that haven't missed a bunch of time with injury, only Pacioretty has played more minutes with equal futility for points as Nash. Collecting one lonely goal while playing 16:23 in average minutes through nine games is a pretty laughable total, and the gut reaction here might be to write Nash off. After all, he's 33 years old and coming off back-to-back sub-40-point seasons. But the shot totals are still there. Nash is putting pucks toward the net with the same regularity as his former 40-goal self. Don't give up yet.
Brent Burns, D, San Jose Sharks (5.43 shots plus missed shots per game)
While I was calling for Burns to take a step back this season, his current numbers have gone too far the other way. He could very well be a buy-low candidate, depending on your trading partner's outlook. I was worried age would be catching up with him prior to the season, as the list of high scoring seasons by defensemen starts to take a sharp dip for the 32-and-older crowd, but it's not like Burns suddenly aged 10 years during the offseason. He's still going to be an elite fantasy defenseman. Burns has zero goals and four assists through seven games, with an ugly minus-8 rating, but his shot total and usage by the Sharks still screams with fantasy potential.
Forwards on the move
Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis Blues (up 21 spots to No. 76)
Schwartz appears to be starting off the breakout season that we all expected two years ago. A 28-goal, 63-point campaign in 2014-15 was followed up by an injury-riddled season for Schwartz. Last year, he just never seemed to find a rhythm and was not always lucky enough to be lined up next to Vladimir Tarasenko on the top line (he played a lot there, to be sure, but it wasn't a permanent assignment). This year, Schwartz has been locked in as the winger opposite Tarasenko, is playing almost 40 seconds more per game on average and has a profound scoring pace through nine games. Even a trial separation from Tarasenko on Saturday didn't last longer than a period. Schwartz will slow down -- that'll happen when you're on pace for 120 points -- but the success is no accident.
Cam Atkinson, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets (down 17 spots to No. 69)
Better days are ahead for Atkinson, but given his ice time, role and shots on goal, fantasy owners should be reaping more rewards, especially on the power play. Atkinson is already on pace for a 31-goal campaign, but he has no assists and no power-play points. The lack of scoring on the man advantage is a team-wide problem to date, but shouldn't be a long-term issue. After all, the Blue Jackets finished a respectable 12th in power-play percentage last season.
Defensemen on the move
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Arizona Coyotes (down 40 spots to No. 120)
I wanted to just believe that Ekman-Larsson's 2016-17 was just a blip on the radar for an otherwise top-five fantasy defenseman. However, his current pace in most categories is calling for a repeat of the season in which he finished 44th among defensemen for fantasy value on the ESPN Player Rater. The 40 points would be nice, but that total isn't special for a defenseman, especially when it costs you dearly in the plus/minus department. Ekman-Larsson is currently on an 82-game pace for a minus-92. That won't happen, but it doesn't make last season's minus-25 look like an outlier at this point. Ekman-Larsson is on pace for 164 shots this season, which would be a full 100 below his career high. He's still only 26 years old, but Ekman-Larsson should be coming into his prime, not regressing in the offensive categories.
Goalies on the move
Mike Smith, G, Calgary Flames (up 24 spots to No. 92)
A superb save percentage and so-so goals-against average are what we've come to expect from Smith over the years. So what's the difference between him being a fringe fantasy goalie with the Arizona Coyotes and sitting among the top 10 fantasy goaltenders on the ESPN Player Rater now with the Calgary Flames? Well, wins. Rather than being a one-category contributor with a solid save percentage, the added wins thanks to the Flames offense make Smith a no-brainer two-category goaltender. He's also the epitome of a workhorse so far this season, only trailing Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy for ice time and shots against.
Quick hits
Following up on the recommendation from Friday's Forecaster to take a chance on one of the two Florida Panthers goaltenders for the coming week, it's James Reimer who you want. Roberto Luongo hit the injured reserve for the coming week, leaving Reimer all alone in the crease to follow up on a sterling performance against the Washington Capitals on Saturday. Reimer has a huge chance to create some separation during the week, and Luongo could return to less than 50 percent of the work. ... Speaking of proverbial goaltending worms that could be turning, Brian Elliott's needs to stay on his toes with Michal Neuvirth waiting in the wings for the Philadelphia Flyers. Neuvirth has been historically unable to carry the load as a starter, but he can string together a few games of success with the best of them, as he did last week. ... The Vegas Golden Knights are now down to their third-string goaltender and still winning. Some teams don't have two goaltenders with a win this season, but the Knights have three (Marc-Andre Fleury has three wins, Malcolm Subban has two and Oscar Dansk now has one). The Golden Knights have a light schedule this week, so it's probably not worth getting involved here, but if Dansk fares well this week and the other two guys stay on the shelf, it's hard to argue with him as an option. ... With Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm still not in action and Cam Fowler now also on the shelf, Brandon Montour becomes an even more intriguing short-term option. He notched a goal and an assist on Friday as the lead offensive defenseman for the Anaheim Ducks. ... With Jaromir Jagr on the sidelines for at least a little while, Micheal Ferland gets another shot on the Flames' top line. ... Don't look now, but T.J. Brodie -- not Mark Giordano or Dougie Hamilton -- has been quarterbacking the top power-play unit for the Flames. ... Injury is not the way he probably wanted a promotion, but with Tyson Jost on the shelf, rookie Alexander Kerfoot gets a chance to showcase his skills in the top six for the Colorado Avalanche.