Having a fantasy selection go off and reward you with surprising statistics is the experience we all seek while competing in our leagues. But as a tortoise once taught us all in a fable, sometimes consistency can help in winning the race.
Some variance isn't a bad thing. And, mathematically speaking, it can simply show improvement, rather than a lack of consistency. But, as we'll discuss here, we need to start somewhere to look at which players can be considered the most reliable for production.
This is a look at which fantasy players (skaters only) have strayed the least from their own annual fantasy points per game (FPPG) average during the past four seasons. In other words, we are taking the last four seasons, finding each player's individual average FPPG and then calculating how much variance there was from that in each season. The total variance shows us how much up and down swing a player has in their average value.
For example, Duncan Keith is the most reliable NHL player for fantasy production over the past four seasons. In reverse chronological order, Keith has scored an average of 1.766, 1.687, 1.760 and 1.759 FPPG during the past four seasons, giving him an average FPPG during that time of 1.743. His total variance from that average in that span is 0.112 FPPG.
Finding consistency in this way is pretty straightforward. Which players scores a relevant number of fantasy points? And, of those players, which ones do it near the same level every season?
The other end of the spectrum is a little trickier to pin down. A lot of the players who show the most variance are examples of younger players who barely had a role in 2016-17 or 2017-18, which skews their average (think Thomas Chabot or Mathew Barzal). Others have simply come into their own (or had a teammate do so) during the past four seasons, thus pushing their average up (Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, for example).
It seems unfair to label them as inconsistent, since their value is on an upswing overall.
Other players have had wild variance to their output due to ever-changing situations. Jeff Skinner, over the past four seasons, started with a prominent role for the Hurricanes, then had a season in the background, then had a prominent role for the Sabres, then had a season in the background. It shows in his FPPG variance, but can we label him inconsistent? I suppose yes, from an output perspective. But, when pressed into a starring role for his team, he's done the job - he just hasn't had the right job consistently.
I will list the player I think is the most inconsistent at the end, but the focus here will be on listing some players who have been surprisingly consistent during the past four seasons.
As always, this uses FPPG based on ESPN.com's standard scoring categories. To qualify for the calculations, a player has to have at least one game played in each of the past four seasons - so no Elias Pettersson, Brady Tkachuk or Ilya Kovalchuk, for example.
Consistency Kings
There are only three players that are both among the top 50 for average FPPG and the top 50 for the least variance.
Vladimir Tarasenko, F, St. Louis Blues: Sitting 30th for average FPPG (2.158) and showing little variance from season to season during the past four years (0.259), Tarasenko could be argued as there most consistent elite fantasy asset. He even turned in 2.230 FPPG in 2019-20, when he only played 10 games. It's almost unfortunate that he tops this list, as Tarasenko will be one of the most difficult players to draft this season. After his third surgery on the same shoulder, he is on track to be re-evaluated in February. That's when we will find out if he has a reasonable chance to play this season - and that is, obviously, well after fantasy drafts. With a chance to score a top-30 player for half the season, I'm in the camp to start looking at him around pick No. 100. That's late enough that it should be easy to make up for a bust season.
Brad Marchand, F, Boston Bruins: Averaging 2.386 FPPG during the past four seasons, Marchand has been close to that mark in each and every one of those seasons (0.267 variance). Thank goodness that, unlike Tarasenko, Marchand is on track to be recovered in time for the start of the 2021 season.
Logan Couture, F, San Jose Sharks: Here's the surprising one of the three that I probably wouldn't have guessed before doing the calculations. Couture is 48th for average FPPG during the past four seasons (1.995) and his variance is minimal (0.285). He's a possible steal at his current ranking of No. 73.
Consistency sleepers
Here we are looking for players with the least variance in their FPPG output over the last four seasons, who may not be elite, but are still fantasy relevant. This would include, for example, Duncan Keith, who has the least variance in the NHL over the past four seasons, but is ranked 39th among defensemen in average FPPG.
Jaccob Slavin, D, Carolina Hurricanes: Among low-end selections to round out your defense, they don't come safer than Slavin. Ranked 47th among defensemen for average FPPG during the past four seasons, Slavin is only a hair behind Keith for variance (0.115) during those campaigns. His value stems from being decent across in the supplementary role on defense for the Hurricanes, which should continue this season.
Nicklas Backstrom, F, Washington Capitals: His variance is lower than the three kings of consistency listed above (0.221), but his FPPG average is outside the top 50 (67th). But those two aspects combine to make Backstrom arguably the most consistent everyday asset for fantasy. His ranking has slipped to the mid-90s, but since you can bank on his output, I'd argue an earlier pick.
Adam Henrique, F, Anaheim Ducks: Among my sleeper targets this season because I expect his role to increase, Henrique has also been remarkably consistent during the past four seasons (0.262 variance). His average FPPG over four years (1.562) ranks 176th, which is admittedly on the fringes of relevancy, but I include him here because I expect perhaps his best showing is to come.
Evander Kane, F, San Jose Sharks: For a player whose team and role has changed during the past four seasons, Kane has been surprisingly consistent. He is an example of how putting up higher individually driven statistics (shots and hits) can help build a player's fantasy profile. Because Kane can shoot and hit regardless of the scenario, his seasonal variance is minimal (0.287). As for his average FPPG over the last four seasons, he ranks 57th. Sitting 119th in the ESPN.com rankings, I'm eager to get Kane at a discount.
Mark Scheifele, F, Winnipeg Jets: It feels like an annual call for me to say Scheifele is ranked too low, so I'm starting to think he may just be consistently underrated. He has the 31st best FPPG average among skaters during the past four seasons. His variance is fifth-lowest among the top 50 skaters. But, once again, he's not ranked among the top 30. Scheifele sitting at 41st on the rankings means he will be my third-round target in virtually every draft.
Jeff Petry, D, Montreal Canadiens: The generally accepted storyline for Petry in fantasy is: "Sure, he's been good, but it's because Shea Weber has missed so much time." That is probably partly true, but Petry deserves more credit than that. Weber is, no-brainer, the better fantasy defenseman, but that doesn't mean Petry can't also be good. First off, Weber has actually appeared in 72 percent of the Canadiens games during the past four seasons, so it's not like Petry has done all this with Weber completely sidelined. Secondly, Petry's stat profile is built from solid shots, hits and blocks, which don't rely on Weber being out for him to achieve. Petry is ranked 20th among defensemen during the past four seasons for average FPPG (1.928) and his low variance is second only to Alex Pietrangelo during that time.
Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota Wild: If there's one player who exemplifies the need to cast off previous assessments in light of the new ESPN.com scoring system, it's Spurgeon. His offensive profile is good but not great, but when you also consider his consistent output in the hits and blocked shots categories, he becomes almost elite. His average FPPG during the past four seasons (1.974) ranks 52nd among skaters, or 17th among defensemen. In the old scoring system, you wouldn't classify Spurgeon in a group with Drew Doughty, Dougie Hamilton and Torey Krug. But in the new system, he ranks better than all three. And with the lone exception of Pietrangelo, Spurgeon's variance (0.425) is also lower than 15 of the 16 defenseman ranked ahead of him in FPPG.
Inconsistent?
As mentioned near the beginning of this article, I am hesitant to use the inverse of the consistency calculations to call a player inconsistent. But, I will throw one name out there based on how long he has been in the league and the level of output he provides.
Taylor Hall, F, Buffalo Sabres: This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The elite fantasy players with a larger variance in their output than Hall have a very good excuse: they did not have an elite NHL season prior to 2016-17, meaning they have broken onto the scene since then. Hall, on the other hand, doesn't have that same crutch, having been around since 2010-11 and even posting 80 points in 2013-14.
Hall's average FPPG during the past four seasons (2.203) ranks 28th among skaters. But his variance (1.633) has been among the highest. Starting with 2016-17, he's posted 1.746, 2.737 (his MVP season), 2.485 and 1.843 FPPG.
What can we expect out of him with his one-year, show-me contract with the Sabres? I don't think there's a middle ground to the expected outcome, and I expect either a top-10 fantasy showing with Jack Eichel, or another dud like 2019-20 if the chemistry isn't there. I think his No. 42 ranking accurately reflects that.
But you have to admit it's incredibly tempting to draft him sooner.