It's draft week, and here at ESPN.com, we want to make sure you are equipped with all the insight you need to raise your league's virtual Cup at the end of the season.
Our fantasy hockey experts, Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash are here to handle your last-minute questions before you hit the live draft lobby. Whether it's your first draft or you've seen more games than Patrick Marleau, here are the tools you need to craft your strategy.
Best of luck this season!
Centers | Wingers | Defensemen | Goalies
I'm picking first, who should I take?
Sean Allen, ESPN fantasy hockey writer:
Connor McDavid. Only McDavid and Alex Ovechkin have averaged more than 2.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG) during the past four seasons. And I'll take the one who is 23 years old and hasn't necessarily peaked.
Victoria Matiash, ESPN fantasy hockey writer:
While the correct answer is probably Connor McDavid, I find myself leaning towards Nathan MacKinnon. Beyond offering a significant advantage in number of shots, the Avalanche forward's more physical game translates into additional hits and blocked shots. I also believe MacKinnon is going to bulldoze his way through this bizarre season with a fierce determination to win it all. He's going to score up a storm.
When do I take my first goalie?
Sean:
When I put the average fantasy points by the top 150 skaters onto a line chart, the skaters have a steep initial slope to about the 35th player, then things kind of level out before dropping a bit steeper after skater No. 100. Goalies, meanwhile, create a steady downward slope in value. Given those two observations, I like to target goalies between picks No. 35 and 100. That means I'll never get Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck. I'm particularly fond of where Carter Hart (63.8 ADP) and Ilya Samsonov (80.1) are going in drafts.
Victoria:
Ideally, round four. I want three elite skaters in the mix before selecting my first netminder. But I'm not waiting too long before picking my second. I recently secured Hart, Igor Shesterkin, and Darcy Kuemper in a league with other fantasy analysts, and feel quite pleased with that result. The position is too important to not prioritize. This year, more than ever, there's little chance of success in conventional leagues without a strong corps of netminders.
When do I take my first defensemen?
Sean:
Again, based on the value curves, I'll probably skip the top three to four guys and start really considering adding defensemen after the first two rounds of a draft. While I don't think it's a mistake to take John Carlson, the slope for the value of forwards starts out real steep, so I feel like I'm missing out if I don't take a forward with the first two picks.
Victoria:
I'm selecting Brent Burns in the second round if he's available. How's that for a detailed answer? Feeling ornery after too many months idle and determined to rebound off last year's downer of a showing, Burns is my stand-alone elite option at the position. A dream option in ESPN's default fantasy game, the veteran defenseman is going to enjoy a monster of a campaign. I want him on my squad.
I have the turn at the end of the first, what should I do?
Sean:
As implied by my previous answers, taking the best two forwards available. If I'm playing for first place or bust, I might double-down on what I believe in and consider the Sidney Crosby-Jake Guentzel duo here. I don't have any particular interest in them beyond the fact that they are the highest-ranked available duo at the turn and, if you're going for broke, you might as well be all in. But, just picking in a regular scenario from players with a 12.0 ADP or lower: I'll usually take Brad Marchand, Artemi Panarin and/or Steven Stamkos.
Victoria:
Others can fight over Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck that early, I'll wait it out another round or two to select my top 'tender. Again, depending on league size, Burns might be my choice after the turn. Otherwise Brad Marchand or Patrick Kane could pay out rich fantasy dividends as second-round selections.
Whose injury concern scares you off?
Sean:
I think all associated injury discounts at this stage are properly baked into current drafts trends. If anything, I think perhaps we are getting too much of a discount on some commodities. If Vladimir Tarasenko has a shot to play half the season, his ADP should not be as low as 174.1.
Victoria:
Jack Eichel's recent upper body injury bugs me. Yes, I know he's back on the ice, and the Sabres insist it's nothing serious, but I remain bothered. Beyond any fantasy interest, I'm excited to see what Eichel achieves aside new sidekick Taylor Hall a further ripened Victor Olofsson this campaign. This isn't the ideal start.
Who is currently going higher than they should?
Sean:
Cale Makar. I understand there is additional upside we didn't see last season, but Makar finished in the mid-20s among defensemen for FPPG last season. Now he's being drafted as the fourth defenseman off the board. I agree he should be higher than the mid-20s, but not this high. Not by a long shot. Heck, his teammate Ryan Graves had 1.97 FPPG last season to Makar's 1.96. Unless I missed the memo about Makar adding significant hits and blocked shots to his repertoire, I'm out.
Victoria:
Jordan Binnington. One exceptional season - two years ago - does not a top-tier fantasy goaltender make. Binnington was just okay in 2019-20 and lousy in the playoffs. I don't get why this guy is getting picked (ADP 46.6) before the likes of Hart, Price, Samsonov and others.
Who should I pay up for at the Salary Cap Draft?
Sean:
Whomever you feel strongly about. My chief recommendation for salary cap formats is not to be held to preconceived values when it comes to the actual draft. Your assigned value is a best guess and it gets weighed against the best guess of the other managers in your league -- and it gets done so for every single player in the draft. There is so much room for error built into that scenario that not taking a player you are keen on over a dollar or two of assigned value is a big mistake. Within reason, pay for who you believe strongly in and then adjust for it later on. It's best to walk away from the table with the top players you truly want than to have walked away having managed to collect the best preconceived value for a team.
Victoria:
In ESPN.com's default game, I'm coughing up big bucks for anyone ranking in the top-eight. With full respect to Sebastien Aho, Mitch Marner, and company, there's a gap, in my view, between that top octet and the rest of the field. They're the difference-makers. Not to suggest you can't win without a skater from that leading crew, but it's a tougher fantasy task.
How high should I take Lafreniere?
Sean:
Higher if you are bold. It's an interesting situation in that the top pick of the draft is being added to what is already a contending roster. On one hand, they absolutely don't need him to shine to do well this season. On the other hand, with no pressure to perform, there's an opportunity for Lafreniere to really pop off. I'm a believer that it's time to start taking some chances around pick No. 100 of a draft, because it's easy to make up for what is minimal lost value later. If you don't think Kaapo Kakko and/or Pavel Buchnevich can hold back Lafreniere for long, grab him a few rounds earlier than his 148.7 ADP.
Victoria:
This year, not that high. The Rangers could conceivably ease Lafreniere into the league by skating him on the third line all season. If their top-six is humming along, why not? Ranked below Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko is my favorite outside-the-lines fantasy option in New York this year.
Sergei Bobrovsky's got to be better this year, right?
Sean:
Yes. But I have nothing at all to back that up. Nothing. He's 32, so the historical goaltender cliff at age 35 shouldn't be a factor yet. His franchise invested in him, which in theory means they care about keeping pucks out of the net. In the three seasons prior to last season's struggles combined, Bobrovsky had more fantasy points than any other goaltender -- and it wasn't even close. But none of those points are all that relevant when you consider what he did (didn't do) last season. He has to be better, but I'm very scared to draft him where the math says he should go. His ADP is 144.2, but I have to admit that I'll start thinking about him if I don't have my goalies by the eighth or ninth round.
Victoria:
Yes, assuming his current (and rather mysterious) "unfit to play" status doesn't bleed long into the regular season. As discussed in our take on fantasy category specialists, the Panthers are paying the former Vezina Trophy winner too hefty a sum to not play, and not play well. Even if you're not persuaded by that argument, Bob has too long a history of quality play on his side. One mediocre season in Florida doesn't negate a string of outstanding campaigns in Columbus. I have a hard time accepting that he's just lost it. Also, Bobrovsky put in some great performances last season, only not often enough. I like him as a solid bounce-back candidate this shortened season.
So I've filled every starting position, what should I do with the last few rounds?
Sean:
Draft early-season upside that you can ditch if things don't work out. So, this is new faces in new places or fresh roles. Think training camp linemates that came out of the blue (cough, Joe Thornton). If you have deep sleepers that you expect to start slow, avoid the urge to stash them; chances are if they lasted to this late in the draft, you can publicly stash them on the free-agent pile. Then, when reality sets in on the season and the Leafs remember they have Zach Hyman, you can drop Thornton for that deep sleeper who is just starting to come around. Or (this is fantasy after all) when Thornton starts playing like it's 1999 (literally), you already have him on your team.
Victoria:
Roll the dice on sleepers and bounce-back candidates. Like Sean, I'm extra interested in players earning a fresh lease on their careers in new environments. Think of Andre Burakovsky blossoming in Colorado last year. In deeper leagues, someone like Jesse Puljujarvi earns my attention in a draft's waning rounds. I'm not convinced the reportedly matured 22-year-old doesn't eventually work his way up from the Oilers' third line to settle aside Connor McDavid. And then, look out.