We knew this was coming. There was no way around it. If the NHL was going to come back, COVID would be causing interruptions.
Before this week, the postponements had been coming at us one at a time. First the Dallas Stars, then the Carolina Hurricanes and then last week the Vegas Golden Knights. The dam seemingly burst over the past couple of days though, as the New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche have now all had games shelved due to COVID.
The postponements are causing a shift in value for fantasy leagues. A player on a team with games that are being put off until later can act almost like a fantasy points bank: He has stored up additional fantasy points to be revealed at a later date. But how significant has the impact on the schedule been?
Current official postponements run as late as Feb. 11. So let's take the end of next week as our example date. As of the morning of Monday, Feb. 15, NHL teams will have played between a low of 11 games and a high of 18. At face value, that doesn't immediately seem like a massive range, especially with the average team sitting between 13 and 14 games.
But in a 56-game shortened season, 11 games is 20 percent of the schedule, while 18 games is 32 percent of the schedule. Do you want to have the player on your roster with 80 percent of his schedule left? Or the player with only two-thirds remaining?
If we take the remaining games and apply it to individual players using their fantasy points per game (FPPG) from the past two seasons, we can start to see a small but subtle shift in value. The players with banked fantasy points have more FPPG remaining this season than the players who have already played more games.
Are Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak more valuable than Connor McDavid from Feb. 15 forward? Arguably, yes. MacKinnon (assuming he's back from his lower-body injury by then) will have 44 games remaining, Pastrnak will have 42 and McDavid will only have 40. Based on their FPPG for the past two seasons, that would allow both MacKinnon and Pastrnak to outscore McDavid for the remainder of the season.
But again, even considering the hefty number of postponements, the differences here are subtle. Just because Bo Horvat only has 38 games left as of Feb. 15 and Phil Kessel will have 45 games left, doesn't mean I'd definitely want to make that switch. But maybe if you are looking at Quinn Hughes versus Oliver Ekman-Larsson, perhaps there is some merit in the idea of acting on a trade.
For the record, as of Monday, Feb. 15, the Arizona Coyotes will have 45 games remaining, while the Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers and New Jersey Devils will have 44 remaining. On the flip side, the Vancouver Canucks will have 38 games remaining, with the Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals will have 40 left. All other teams will fall somewhere between 41 and 43.
Fantasy Forecaster: Feb. 8 to Feb. 14
Stay nimble. With so many teams in some kind of COVID-related protocol, the schedule is going to be in flux. The Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes are already down to just one game next week, but it's no sure thing the Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils or Minnesota Wild will be back on track by then -- though no further postponements for them are official beyond Tuesday.
The Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning are the best bets for four-game weeks that should actually occur, as their schedules don't involve any teams with any COVID links at this stage.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense), which is on the left for each game, and "D" (defense), on the right, matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
Team notes
Columbus Blue Jackets: The Blue Jackets are scheduled to take on the Hurricanes once and the Blackhawks twice. With Patrik Laine now in the lineup and one of their timesharing goaltenders on the sidelines, it's a great week to get some Jackets on your roster. Joonas Korpisalo is the obvious first choice, as he should get all three games with Elvis Merzlikins on the IR. Korpisalo has managed a respectable 2.50 fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60) so far this season, which is top 20 among goalies with at least 200 minutes in the crease. But winnable games, especially versus the Blackhawks, makes this more tantalizing, as wins spike goalie points.
As for Laine, Alexandre Texier has been his consistent linemate through two games. The first game was with Cam Atkinson to complete the trio and the second with Max Domi. Laine scored in the second, so expect to see Domi back with them again. Texier, however, is much more likely to be available in your league than Domi. Either makes a good choice as they both join the top power-play unit too.
Nashville Predators: With four games on tap total, the Preds have two tough ones against the Lightning and two easier contests against the Red Wings. But what's interesting right now is that the Preds have taken Filip Forsberg off Ryan Johansen's wing for the past two games -- and in the most recent contest, it worked wonders. Forsberg, playing with Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund, exploded for 8.3 fantasy points (five NHL points). Duchene is widely available in fantasy leagues and, while it might not show on the depth chart, playing with Forsberg and Granlund makes him the de facto No. 1 center.
Player notes
Kevin Lankinen, G, Chicago Blackhawks: If you've been wondering and waiting when it comes to Lankinen, just take the leap. His AHL numbers may not have leaped off the page, and his team context isn't ideal, but we've got ourselves a 25-year-old that was a stud in the Finnish league and has zero competition for the crease. There are seven goaltenders averaging more than 3.00 FPP60 and have also played at least 65 percent of their team's total minutes in the crease. Lankinen is among them.
Christian Dvorak, Nick Schmaltz and Conor Garland, F, Arizona Coyotes: Quietly, these three members of the Coyotes are putting in effective minutes. Looking only at players averaging at least 15 minutes per night (to sort out some of the popping third and fourth liners in this small sample), all three of these 'Yotes are among the top 55 players in FPP60.
Schmaltz and Garland play together frequently, while Dvorak is more often on another line -- but all three are part of the team's surprisingly successful top power-play unit (surprising because they don't play with Phil Kessel or Clayton Keller on the man advantage and Oliver Ekman-Larsson has missed most of the season). They could do with some additional minutes to make them a more effective option for your day-to-day fantasy roster, but it's worth noting the production so far. More minutes are definitely available for anyone who starts getting streaky for the Coyotes.
Arthur Kaliyev, W, Los Angeles Kings: This one is a wild-card play. I've had my eye on Kaliyev as a potential goal-scoring sleeper, just waiting for his NHL chance. He played his first game Tuesday and scored his first goal on a line with fellow future star Gabriel Vilardi. Just keep an eye on him. The Kings are in desperate need of a second line that can bring offensive pressure.