When weighing statistics for the rankings, season-long numbers are the great stabilizer. While I like to consider what a player has been doing lately, those longer-term stats help bring some reality into focus. But the debate between how to weigh recent numbers versus a history of production will forever rage.
With that said, over investing in recency might be the tactic for you. Yes, you; the fantasy player who is sitting in the middle of your league's rankings - not out of the running yet, but not sitting in a position to win the championship.
To that end, let's throw out the season-long statistics for a minute and take a look at what some NHLers have done for us lately.
Taking fantasy points per game (FPPG) for the past three weeks and for the past two months, averaging the rate and then applying it to games remaining gives us a much different look at where value might be. When applying projections this way, Connor McDavid is 37th overall for fantasy, which is why we don't ignore historical production. But with the fantasy trade deadline quickly approaching (its March 18 for default leagues), let's highlight some players who have their recent production hidden by their season-long profile.
Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings: Based on the formula for fantasy production outlined above, only Roman Josi and Victor Hedman are projected for more fantasy points than Seider from the blue line. The mix of points and blocked shots is driving the stats, with Seider sitting fifth in blocked shots for the past two months and eighth in points. There is a decent chance his recent production is better than his perceived trade value, given that he drops from third to seventh in FPPG when you look at the whole picture.
Thomas Chabot, D, Ottawa Senators: Like Seider, Chabot has been much more productive lately compared to the season as a whole. His 2.1 FPPG for the season isn't top 20 among defensemen, but his combined average for recent production that I'm using here comes out to 2.8 FPPG and is fifth among defensemen. I picture a fantasy team with Cale Makar, Adam Fox or Kris Letang trading one of them for Chabot and another upgrade, with the knowledge that if Chabot keeps playing like he has been lately, you won't lose much for production from the blue line.
Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: We've focused a lot on the impact of the Martin St. Louis coaching change on Cole Caufield and Jeff Petry, but Suzuki has been elevated significantly by the change too. Based on my recency formula for fantasy production, Suzuki is projected to outscore Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin and a host of others. In fact, his projection ranks 18th among all skaters when you just look at recent results.
Jesper Bratt, W, New Jersey Devils: With 19 points in 17 games for the past two months, Bratt is putting up fantasy points at the same rate as Mikko Rantanen or Alex DeBrincat in that time span (2.3 FPPG). He's locked in on a scoring line and has access to catalyst Jack Hughes on the power play. By the recency metric I'm using, he's projected to be 31st among all skaters for remaining fantasy points, but probably doesn't come close to that in perceived trade value -- even with his recent scoring tear.
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: And perhaps my favorite trade target of them all, Pettersson has been heating up so slowly it's almost been imperceptible that he's become a fantasy force again. His 1.7 FPPG for the season is masking his 2.2 FPPG for the past two months and his 3.0 FPPG for the past three weeks. If you play up his season-long production in trade talks, you could get a pretty great asset for a discounted rate.
Forwards on the move
J.T. Miller, W, Vancouver Canucks (up six spots to No. 19): With his name being kicked around as a trade deadline possibility, there is good news here: Miller is arguably deadline-proof. No team willing to shell out for him is going to limit his usage, so he's a safe investment in your own league if you want to swing a deal for him. Miller has been particularly hot lately, posting a league-leading 3.7 FPPG during the past three weeks.
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (up 35 spots to No. 48): Speaking of the trade deadline, the top item on the Penguins shopping list has to be an improvement in the wingers available for Malkin. While Jason Zucker will help in that regard when he gets healthy, there is still room for additional improvement. Malkin is doing just fine as things are, but a boost to his even strength scoring would help, since 13 of his 24 points have come on the advantage.
Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Winnipeg Jets (up 79 spots to No. 102): With a point in each of his two games back in the lineup, Ehlers still has room for improvement. The Jets are still holding back on him, by skating him on the third line and second power-play unit. But Ehlers is good enough to be among the top six and on the top unit, so coach Dave Lowry probably can't languish him for too long.
Defensemen on the move
John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals (up 18 spots to No. 77): A pretty terrible January is quickly fading in the rearview mirror, with Carlson picking his pace back up to a point per game of late. His two goals and zero assists in eight games for January can be viewed as a bump in the road, especially with the Capitals getting more assets healthy lately, such as T.J. Oshie and Anthony Mantha.
Goaltenders on the move
Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars (up 74 spots to No. 66): Going back a whole two months, only six goaltenders have more total fantasy points than Oettinger. During that span, he's earned 67.7 percent of the crease share and posted a respectable 3.85 fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60). Like Ville Husso and Jeremy Swayman, Oettinger is in great position to help push fantasy teams down the stretch, especially for those who had previously leaned on Jack Campbell or Cam Talbot.
Cam Talbot, G, Minnesota Wild (down 38 spots to No. 126): That's right, things aren't looking great for Talbot. The Wild have struggled with defense since the all-star break, with Talbot posting a 3.70 goals-against average and .883 save percentage since then. And I say Wild, not just Talbot, because Kappo Kahkonen's rates are just as bad. There's not much to do besides get him out of your lineup for the time being. Don't drop him, as the Wild can figure this out. But in the meantime, turn to Husso, Swayman or Oettinger among other options for your crease. Deeper leagues can even look to options like Vitek Vanecek or Cal Peterson as available options preferable to Talbot at the moment.
New to rankings
Scott Mayfield, Erik Karlsson, Anthony Mantha, Dawson Mercer, Travis Konecny, Josh Anderson, Andrew Copp
Just missed
Lawson Crouse, Ryan Johansen, Drake Batherson, Gustav Nyquist, Travis Sanheim, Justin Holl, Dysin Mayo, Tyler Motte, Travis Hamonic.
Dropped out
Petr Mrazek, Alex Iafallo, Jordan Eberle, Linus Ullmark, John Gibson, Jeff Carter, Erik Cernak.
Top-250 rankings
1. Auston Matthews, F, TOR (F1)
2. Nikita Kucherov, F, TB (F2)
3. Nathan MacKinnon, F, COL (F3)
4. Connor McDavid, F, EDM (F4)
5. Aleksander Barkov, F, FLA (F5)
6. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G1)
7. Leon Draisaitl, F, EDM (F6)
8. Kirill Kaprizov, F, MIN (F7)
9. Jacob Markstrom, G, CGY (G2)
10. Mitch Marner, F, TOR (F8)
11. Cale Makar, D, COL (D1)
12. Brad Marchand, F, BOS (F9)
13. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G3)
14. Roman Josi, D, NSH (D2)
15. Frederik Andersen, G, CAR (G4)
16. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D3)
17. Alex Ovechkin, F, WSH (F10)
18. Timo Meier, F, SJ (F11)
19. J.T. Miller, F, VAN (F12)
20. Mikko Rantanen, F, COL (F13)
21. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D4)
22. Jack Hughes, F, NJ (F14)
23. David Pastrnak, F, BOS (F15)
24. Gabriel Landeskog, F, COL (F16)
25. Sebastian Aho, F, CAR (F17)
26. Mika Zibanejad, F, NYR (F18)
27. Elias Lindholm, F, CGY (F19)
28. Mats Zuccarello, F, MIN (F20)
29. Steven Stamkos, F, TB (F21)
30. Kyle Connor, F, WPG (F22)
31. Filip Forsberg, F, NSH (F23)
32. Moritz Seider, D, DET (D5)
33. Matthew Tkachuk, F, CGY (F24)
34. Jonathan Huberdeau, F, FLA (F25)
35. Sidney Crosby, F, PIT (F26)
36. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI (G5)
37. Patrik Laine, F, CLS (F27)
38. Andrei Svechnikov, F, CAR (F28)
39. Jake Guentzel, F, PIT (F29)
40. Darcy Kuemper, G, COL (G6)
41. Jack Eichel, F, VGS (F30)
42. Kris Letang, D, PIT (D6)
43. Aaron Ekblad, D, FLA (D7)
44. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D8)
45. Patrick Kane, F, CHI (F31)
46. Brayden Point, F, TB (F32)
47. Joe Pavelski, F, DAL (F33)
48. Chris Kreider, F, NYR (F34)
49. Dylan Larkin, F, DET (F35)
50. Johnny Gaudreau, F, CGY (F36)
51. Juuse Saros, G, NSH (G7)
52. Bryan Rust, F, PIT (F37)
53. Max Pacioretty, F, VGS (F38)
54. Evgeni Malkin, F, PIT (F39)
55. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, FLA (G8)
56. Thomas Chabot, D, OTT (D9)
57. Tristan Jarry, G, PIT (G9)
58. Vladimir Tarasenko, F, STL (F40)
59. Brady Tkachuk, F, OTT (F41)
60. Charlie McAvoy, D, BOS (D10)
61. Anze Kopitar, F, LA (F42)
62. Patrice Bergeron, F, BOS (F43)
63. Jason Robertson, F, DAL (F44)
64. Nazem Kadri, F, COL (F45)
65. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D11)
66. Jake Oettinger, G, DAL (G10)
67. Blake Wheeler, F, WPG (F46)
68. Evander Kane, F, EDM (F47)
69. Jesper Bratt, F, NJ (F48)
70. Alex Pietrangelo, D, VGS (D12)
71. Seth Jones, D, CHI (D13)
72. Boone Jenner, F, CLS (F49)
73. Mark Scheifele, F, WPG (F50)
74. Alex DeBrincat, F, CHI (F51)
75. Dougie Hamilton, D, NJ (D14)
76. Artemi Panarin, F, NYR (F52)
77. John Carlson, D, WSH (D15)
78. Jeremy Swayman, G, BOS (G11)
79. Kevin Fiala, F, MIN (F53)
80. Elias Pettersson, F, VAN (F54)
81. Teuvo Teravainen, F, CAR (F55)
82. Tage Thompson, F, BUF (F56)
83. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D16)
84. Matthew Boldy, F, MIN (F57)
85. Darnell Nurse, D, EDM (D17)
86. Brayden Schenn, F, STL (F58)
87. Roope Hintz, F, DAL (F59)
88. Devon Toews, D, COL (D18)
89. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (D19)
90. Zach Werenski, D, CLS (D20)
91. Ville Husso, G, STL (G12)
92. Jack Campbell, G, TOR (G13)
93. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D21)
94. Logan Couture, F, SJ (F60)
95. Alex Tuch, F, BUF (F61)
96. MacKenzie Weegar, D, FLA (D22)
97. Matt Duchene, F, NSH (F62)
98. Jared Spurgeon, D, MIN (D23)
99. Nico Hischier, F, NJ (F63)
100. Clayton Keller, F, ARI (F64)
101. Pavel Buchnevich, F, STL (F65)
102. Nikolaj Ehlers, F, WPG (F66)
103. Andrew Mangiapane, F, CGY (F67)
104. Colton Parayko, D, STL (D24)
105. Pierre-Luc Dubois, F, WPG (F68)
106. Michael Bunting, F, TOR (F69)
107. Tyler Bertuzzi, F, DET (F70)
108. Thatcher Demko, G, VAN (G14)
109. Sam Reinhart, F, FLA (F71)
110. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D25)
111. Adrian Kempe, F, LA (F72)
112. Jordan Kyrou, F, STL (F73)
113. Brock Nelson, F, NYI (F74)
114. John Tavares, F, TOR (F75)
115. Tomas Hertl, F, SJ (F76)
116. Claude Giroux, F, PHI (F77)
117. Cole Caufield, F, MON (F78)
118. Justin Faulk, D, STL (D26)
119. Nick Suzuki, F, MON (F79)
120. Sam Bennett, F, FLA (F80)
121. Morgan Rielly, D, TOR (D27)
122. Tyler Toffoli, F, CGY (F81)
123. Zach Hyman, F, EDM (F82)
124. William Nylander, F, TOR (F83)
125. Connor Hellebuyck, G, WPG (G15)
126. Cam Talbot, G, MIN (G16)
127. Anthony Duclair, F, FLA (F84)
128. Jeff Petry, D, MON (D28)
129. Tom Wilson, F, WSH (F85)
130. Rasmus Dahlin, D, BUF (D29)
131. Joshua Morrissey, D, WPG (D30)
132. Mark Giordano, D, SEA (D31)
133. Joel Eriksson Ek, F, MIN (F86)
134. Rasmus Andersson, D, CGY (D32)
135. Bo Horvat, F, VAN (F87)
136. Lucas Raymond, F, DET (F88)
137. Taylor Hall, F, BOS (F89)
138. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, ARI (D33)
139. Brayden McNabb, D, VGS (D34)
140. Jaccob Slavin, D, CAR (D35)
141. Vincent Trocheck, F, CAR (F90)
142. Cam Atkinson, F, PHI (F91)
143. Robin Lehner, G, VGS (G17)
144. Quinn Hughes, D, VAN (D36)
145. Connor Brown, F, OTT (F92)
146. Tyler Seguin, F, DAL (F93)
147. Tony DeAngelo, D, CAR (D37)
148. Troy Terry, F, ANA (F94)
149. Josh Norris, F, OTT (F95)
150. Connor Murphy, D, CHI (D38)
151. Ryan Graves, D, NJ (D39)
152. Jonathan Marchessault, F, VGS (F96)
153. Esa Lindell, D, DAL (D40)
154. Ryan Hartman, F, MIN (F97)
155. Alex Killorn, F, TB (F98)
156. Jamie Benn, F, DAL (F99)
157. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D41)
158. Evgeny Kuznetsov, F, WSH (F100)
159. Miro Heiskanen, D, DAL (D42)
160. Calvin de Haan, D, CHI (D43)
161. Tanner Jeannot, F, NSH (F101)
162. Viktor Arvidsson, F, LA (F102)
163. T.J. Oshie, F, WSH (F103)
164. Oliver Bjorkstrand, F, CLS (F104)
165. Jakob Chychrun, D, ARI (D44)
166. Mathew Barzal, F, NYI (F105)
167. Alec Martinez, D, VGS (D45)
168. Nicklas Backstrom, F, WSH (F106)
169. Neal Pionk, D, WPG (D46)
170. Blake Coleman, F, CGY (F107)
171. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, PHI (D47)
172. Zach Whitecloud, D, VGS (D48)
173. Ivan Barbashev, F, STL (F108)
174. Tim Stutzle, F, OTT (F109)
175. Nick Schmaltz, F, ARI (F110)
176. Shea Theodore, D, VGS (D49)
177. Adam Henrique, F, ANA (F111)
178. Vladislav Gavrikov, D, CLS (D50)
179. Ivan Provorov, D, PHI (D51)
180. Valeri Nichushkin, F, COL (F112)
181. Jonas Brodin, D, MIN (D52)
182. Mason Marchment, F, FLA (F113)
183. Damon Severson, D, NJ (D53)
184. Yegor Sharangovich, F, NJ (F114)
185. Ondrej Palat, F, TB (F115)
186. Mathew Dumba, D, MIN (D54)
187. Marcus Foligno, F, MIN (F116)
188. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, CHI (G18)
189. Anton Lundell, F, FLA (F117)
190. Andre Burakovsky, F, COL (F118)
191. Rickard Rakell, F, ANA (F119)
192. Jeff Skinner, F, BUF (F120)
193. John Klingberg, D, DAL (D55)
194. Adam Pelech, D, NYI (D56)
195. Mikael Granlund, F, NSH (F121)
196. Trevor Zegras, F, ANA (F122)
197. Anthony Cirelli, F, TB (F123)
198. Torey Krug, D, STL (D57)
199. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, F, EDM (F124)
200. Erik Johnson, D, COL (D58)
201. Chandler Stephenson, F, VGS (F125)
202. Brock Boeser, F, VAN (F126)
203. Kevin Shattenkirk, D, ANA (D59)
204. Luke Schenn, D, TB (D60)
205. Kyle Palmieri, F, NYI (F127)
206. Robert Thomas, F, STL (F128)
207. Scott Mayfield, D, NYI (D61)
208. Ryan O'Reilly, F, STL (F129)
209. Ben Chiarot, D, MON (D62)
210. Cam Fowler, D, ANA (D63)
211. Nathan Bastian, F, NJ (F130)
212. Reilly Smith, F, VGS (F131)
213. Artem Zub, D, OTT (D64)
214. Samuel Girard, D, COL (D65)
215. David Perron, F, STL (F132)
216. Zach Parise, F, NYI (F133)
217. Radko Gudas, D, FLA (D66)
218. Ryan Strome, F, NYR (F134)
219. Anders Lee, F, NYI (F135)
220. Scott Laughton, F, PHI (F136)
221. Evan Bouchard, D, EDM (D67)
222. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D68)
223. Elvis Merzlikins, G, CLS (G19)
224. Tyson Barrie, D, EDM (D69)
225. Brett Pesce, D, CAR (D70)
226. Ryan Lindgren, D, NYR (D71)
227. Phillip Danault, F, LA (F137)
228. Anthony Mantha, F, WSH (F138)
229. Tyler Myers, D, VAN (D72)
230. Jakub Vrana, F, DET (F139)
231. Noah Hanifin, D, CGY (D73)
232. Ilya Samsonov, G, WSH (G20)
233. Dawson Mercer, F, NJ (F140)
234. Matt Roy, D, LA (D74)
235. Jared McCann, F, SEA (F141)
236. Christopher Tanev, D, CGY (D75)
237. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F, NYI (F142)
238. Kaapo Kahkonen, G, MIN (G21)
239. Ondrej Kase, F, TOR (F143)
240. Travis Konecny, F, PHI (F144)
241. Nate Schmidt, D, WPG (D76)
242. Jonathan Quick, G, LA (G22)
243. Filip Hronek, D, DET (D77)
244. Carter Verhaeghe, F, FLA (F145)
245. Justin Braun, D, PHI (D78)
246. Corey Perry, F, TB (F146)
247. Jakub Voracek, F, CLS (F147)
248. Jake DeBrusk, F, BOS (F148)
249. Josh Anderson, F, MON (F149)
250. Andrew Copp, F, WPG (F150)