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WNBA bets and fantasy picks: A'ja Wilson set to dominate on the glass

Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images

Each night of the WNBA season, our team of fantasy and betting experts breaks down every game on the schedule, making note of everything from injuries and lineup changes to recent trends and more.

Here's what to look for tonight:

A four-game slate with several paths to fantasy value and betting angles features many of the top names in the league. No single game stands out above the crowd in terms of a massive point total, but reasonable spreads on the majority of action also means a greater expectation of close contests and, thus, projectable rotations.

Let's take a closer look at the players and matchups for tonight's games and find some angles of interest.

Friday's fantasy stream team

Aaliyah Edwards, F, Washington Mystics, (Available in 41.3% of ESPN leagues)

Fresh from likely her best game as a pro, this rising rookie merits more attention given her efficiency on the glass and an uptick in rim protection results. Facing another young team could aid Edwards' upside tonight.

Tiffany Hayes, G, Las Vegas Aces, (92.9%)

Hayes is a former All-Star who was still productive in her final season with the Sun last year. Her surprise pivot from a retirement decision has her as an important complementary player on a title-driven team. Her minutes might not be very rich, but she already delivered 24 fantasy points in her Aces' debut earlier this week. As part of the league's top offense, even this glue role has value ahead of tonight's meeting with Seattle.


Picks, projections and injury reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. All odds are provided by ESPN BET.


Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics
7:30 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.


Line: Fever -2.5
Money line: Fever (-155), Mystics (+130)
Total: 162.5 points

BPI prediction:
Mystics: 59.9% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 2.8 points

Injury report
Fever: Damiris Dantas (Out)
Mystics: Shakira Austin (Out), Brittney Sykes (Out)

Best bet: Over 162.5 points.

The lack of defensive production in this matchup is glaring; the Fever are last in defensive rating and the Mystics are eighth. Both teams rank in the top seven in pace, suggesting a good stream of possessions against porous defensive rotations.


Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces
10 p.m. ET, Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas


Line: Aces -7.5
Money line: Storm (+290), Aces (-385)
Total: 166.5 points

BPI prediction:
Aces: 75.9% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 7.9 points

Injury report
Storm: No injuries reported
Aces: Chelsea Gray (Out), Kierstan Bell (Out)

Best bet: A'ja Wilson over 11.5 rebounds (-125).

This prop is actually set below her season average. It's worth noting Seattle is fifth in rebounding percentage on the season, but Wilson's atypical range and skill on the glass has this prop positioned as one of the stronger plays on Friday's slate.

Best bet: Skylar Diggins-Smith over 5.5 assists (-120).

Other than Wilson's rebounding dominance, there's some value in considering this number given the amount of offensive usage Diggins-Smith is expected to handle in this matchup.


Dallas Wings at Los Angeles Sparks
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles


Line: Wings -4.5
Money line: Wings (-180), Sparks (+145)
Total: 161.5 points

BPI prediction:
Wings: 50.6% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 0.2 points

Injury report
Wings: Natasha Howard (Out), Satou Sabally (Out), Jaelyn Brown (Out)
Sparks: Azura Stevens (Out)

Best bet: Cameron Brink over 8.5 points (-125).

Brink is another rookie to watch on Friday night. She ranks in the top 25 in rebounding and faces a Dallas team ranked last in defensive rebounding rate. While this is a points prop, the fact she can potentially secure easy second looks around the rim bodes well for her hitting this over.


Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix


Line: Lynx -4.5
Money line: Lynx (-230), Mercury (+180)
Total: 162.5 points

BPI prediction:
Lynx: 62.5% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: 3.5 points

Injury report
Lynx: Diamond Miller (Out)
Mercury: Brittney Griner (Out), Rebecca Allen (Out)

Best bet: Lynx (-4.5)

The Lynx rank third in offensive rating and second in defense rating and are a balanced team poised to handle a struggling Phoenix team. The Mercury rank eighth in offense rating this season and are not well equipped to counter Napheesa Collier.

Best bet: Natasha Cloud over 6.5 assists.

Like with Wilson, this prop is just below the average clip for Cloud, who sits third in the league in assists per game. Even though the Lynx are in a good spot as favorites, Cloud's pick-and-roll skills drive interest.