Given the events of last week, the 2024 season for the Los Angeles Dodgers promises to be even wilder and more unpredictable than anyone could have imagined. After committing nearly $1.2 billion in the offseason to sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and acquire-and-extend Tyler Glasnow -- plus signing Teoscar Hernandez, James Paxton and Joe Kelly -- the Dodgers are the favorite to win it all. It's World Series-or-bust for them.
The first two games in Korea against the San Diego Padres, however, exposed a couple of potential concerns: First, Yamamoto has a lot to improve upon to justify that 12-year, $325 million contract; second, the infield defense might be a problem.
Still, on paper, the Dodgers look like they might be headed to an unprecedented fourth straight 100-win season: My colleague Bradford Doolittle ran his projected stats for the Dodgers and in over 10,000 simulations, they won an average of 102.1 games. They also won the World Series 24.9% of the time. (We should note here: The Atlanta Braves had slightly better results, averaging 102.8 wins and winning the World Series 26% of the time.)
The Dodgers could even challenge their franchise record of 111 wins from two years ago, which is tied for the fourth most wins in MLB history. You never know, of course, but in the simulations Brad ran, they won 117 or more games more times (373 times, or 3.7%) than they won fewer than 90 games (107, or 1.1%). It's mind-boggling that they might have better odds of setting the single-season wins record (currently 116) than winning fewer than 90 games. The trio of Mookie Betts, Ohtani and Freddie Freeman gives the offense a ridiculously high floor if all three remain healthy, and the pitching depth appears deep enough to overcome even a couple of significant injuries.
All that to say, there's little doubt that the Dodgers will be great in the regular season, but we decided to actually play out how it could go -- and we ended up with some pretty interesting, and fun, results.
Using the "Out of the Park Baseball" game, we simulated 10 seasons of Major League Baseball using current rosters and player projections and ratings for 2024 -- but letting the game's AI engine manage all the teams and roster moves. That meant minor league call-ups, when necessary, and player injuries that affected teams' records. And the postseason? Perhaps even more surprising than real life.
Let's dig into some of the key factors that will define the 2024 Dodgers by going through each of the simulations.