In some MLB draft classes, the debate over the first pick is really no debate at all. When Stephen Strasburg consistently overwhelms college hitters with high cheese or Bryce Harper imperils parked cars with an aluminum bat during batting practice, you just know it's going to come down to a staring match between the selecting team and advisor Scott Boras once the pick is in the books.
This is not one of those years. The top of the 2016 draft class is notable for fine distinctions and individual preferences, placing a premium on legwork and leverage. The definition of "right player, right time'' is fluid and subject to factors that go beyond analytics and scouting reports.
The Philadelphia Phillies, who will christen the 2016 draft Thursday night at the MLB Network Studios in Secaucus, N.J., have done everything in their power to get it right. They've enlisted the help of franchise elders Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel in the evaluation process, dispatched an army of scouts all over the country to compile reports, and invited about 25 players to Citizens Bank for individual workouts.
If they've settled on a choice at No. 1, they're keeping that revelation to themselves.
Will they select Florida's A.J. Puk, a 6-foot-7 left-handed pitcher with an upper-90s fastball? Or will they opt for Kyle Lewis, a talented outfielder from Mercer University in Macon, Georgia? Option No. 3 is Mickey Moniak, a high school outfielder from Southern California. Based on the insights of several industry insiders with knowledge of this year's draft, those appear to be the names in play.
When Phillies officials claim they're still in decision mode, it's more than just a smokescreen. The identity of their favored pick is irrelevant if the two sides can't agree on a signing bonus. If the Phillies broadcast their intentions publicly or panic to get something done, they'll lose any negotiating leverage they have in their ability to play the top candidates off against each other right down to the wire.
"We have a small group of players, both position players and pitchers, and we're hammering it out every single day," Phillies scouting director Johnny Almaraz said at a news conference Monday. "We're narrowing things down now, and hopefully a few hours before [the draft] we'll be pretty much on target with who we want."
This is a big decision for a Philadelphia organization that's clawing its way back to respectability from the 99-loss, rock-bottom season of 2015. Once Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz leave the premises this winter -- if not sooner, in Howard's case -- the Phillies will move forward behind Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, J.P. Crawford and the other young players who will give the franchise its new identity. If the 2016 No. 1 pick doesn't turn out to be a superstar, the Phillies at least need to find a productive big leaguer who can be a significant contributor for several years.
Given the absence of a perceived "sure thing,'' the Phillies are following the strategy that's served the Houston Astros so well in recent years. In June 2013, the Astros signed Carlos Correa for $2.4 million less than the recommended slot value for the top choice. Those savings gave the Astros the latitude to splurge on pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. with the 41st pick. Last year, Houston saved enough money on first-rounders Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker to be able to afford the price of signing outfielder Daz Cameron, Mike's son, with the 37th overall selection.
If the Phillies can come in significantly below the $9.015 million allotment for the top choice, they can spread the wealth among the 42nd pick, the 78th choice and other picks further down the line.
"We're going to take the best player, whether he's a pitcher or position player, and hopefully we can get a deal done where we can maximize our dollars,'' Almaraz said.
The only impediment to that approach this year: The Phillies aren't the only rebuilding team thinking along those lines. The Atlanta Braves have the third, 40th and 44th picks, and the Cincinnati Reds choose second, 35th and 43rd. The Braves and Reds also have the picks and potential resources to spread the wealth among several talented players.
While draftniks await the big announcement, a national amateur scout for an MLB club offered the following assessments of the three players who appear to be on Philadelphia's radar at No. 1:
A.J. Puk, LHP, University of Florida
"He hasn't been as dominant as you would expect from a 6-7 lefty who throws 97 [mph] and has a big, hard slider and a feel for a changeup,'' the scout said. "But he's the only guy in the draft with that repertoire. You say to yourself, 'If he figures this out, he could be a top-of-the-rotation starter. And even if he doesn't, he's Andrew Miller.' He's bigger and more physical than Andrew Miller, and it's that kind of fastball. It's not that kind of slider, yet, but it's a really good slider.
"If he ends up being a back-of-the-bullpen lefty, it's not the end of the world. You want more impact than that. But at least there's a safe floor there, with a high ceiling.''
Mickey Moniak, OF, Carlsbad (California) High School
"He's the most advanced high school hitter from a pure hitting standpoint. I don't think a lot of scouts have trouble picturing him being a potential .300 hitter in the big leagues. The question is, is he strong enough? He's kind of thin and it's not a real big frame, so there's not a lot of room to project he'll get a ton stronger. There's not going to be big power there.
"You're hoping he can hit 10-15 homers a year and stay in center field. If he has to move to a corner, that becomes an issue because of the lack of power. Personally, I think he can stay in center field. He has a tremendous feel for the game. You watch him play and you're like, 'That kid is a baseball player. He knows how to play.' He swings the bat and barrels up everything.
"It's hard for me to come up with a comparison for him. You think about Christian Yelich when he was in high school, but Yelich was a little stronger and more physical. I've heard some people mention Steve Finley. I'm talking about the earlier-in-his-career Steve Finley -- not the guy who was hitting 25 and 30 homers a season with the Diamondbacks. The earlier Steve Finely could really defend in center field and he ran and hit triples and hit .280 or .290. I think [Moniak] could be that kind of guy. He's a really good player. But he has to get stronger.''
Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer University (Georgia)
"He's kind of the unknown. If he was doing what he's been doing at Florida State or LSU, you would be like, 'That's the first pick -- clearly.' He's doing it in a small conference against weaker competition, so questions arise, like, 'What happens when he faces really good pitching every day?'
"I like him a lot. I think he has a lot of upside, and I didn't see anything that made me think, 'Man, when the velocity picks up and the breaking balls get tighter, he's going to really struggle.' He has a chance to be an All-Star caliber outfielder -- probably in a corner, but he may be able to stay in center field. He's a pretty good athlete.
"He has a higher ceiling than Moniak does, but there's more risk there. You can see this guy being a .270 or .280 hitter in the big leagues with 25 home runs. He might not get there. But that's kind of what you're hoping he becomes.''
Since the draft's inception in 1965, the Phillies have picked first overall only once, when they went for Miami slugger Pat Burrell in 1998. While Burrell never made an All-Star team, he hit 251 home runs in a Philadelphia uniform. He was one of the most accomplished big leaguers in a '98 draft class that included the likes of Mark Mulder, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena and Aaron Rowand in the first round.
At least the Phillies didn't whiff in the manner of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, who selected shortstop Tim Beckham with the No. 1 pick shortly before Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey went off the board. Signability is a wonderful thing, but signability combined with talent makes for a significantly happier ending.
While the Phillies are intent on using all the statistical tools and analytics at their disposal, Almaraz subscribes to the notion that a unique burden comes with being selected "1-1'' overall in the draft. He's convinced that players who are emotionally equipped to deal with it have a better chance of success.
"I think all of us at the end of the day know we're buying the human being,'' Almaraz said. "We're buying the person. That's what I believe. Character is extremely important. He has to be somebody who can handle that label of being 1-1. I think you have to be wired the right way to handle that.''
Whose name will the Phillies call first on draft night? The legwork and roundtable discussions are complete. The only thing left to do now is strike a deal and make the call.