Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide the showdown Tuesday night between the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians in Game 1 of the World Series, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.
How we got here
The Cubs won 103 games, the Indians won 94. The Cubs have gone 7-3 in the postseason, the Indians have gone 7-1. The Cubs have hit .222/.277/.395 in the playoffs and allowed 3.0 runs per game while the Indians have hit .208/.256/.380 and allowed 1.9 runs per game. Based on what has happened so far, you would expect a low-scoring World Series. Oh, and the team that has hit more home runs has won each playoff series so far, plus both wild-card games. -- David Schoenfield
Inside the pitching matchup
When Cubs starter Jon Lester is on the mound: With three sterling playoff starts -- two runs over 21 innings -- it's time to mention Lester right up there with Madison Bumgarner, who is generally considered the supreme postseason pitcher of this generation. Lester is 8-6 in his postseason career, but with a 2.50 ERA over 119 innings, averaging 6.8 innings per start. He has pitched in each of the past four postseasons and has never walked more than two batters in a game and has allowed just seven home runs over 77 innings.
This should be a tougher matchup than his previous opponents this postseason, however, as the Giants' offense had hit the skids in the second half of the season and the Dodgers were the worst-hitting team against lefties in the majors. Because of those weaknesses, Lester simply pounded the strike zone with fastballs. His two highest rates of fastballs in a game this season came in the two playoff starts versus the Dodgers (both above 74 percent) and he also was above his season rate against the Giants.
Lester has thrown his fastball more than ever this season -- 60 percent of the time, locating to both sides of the plate while working the bottom half of the zone much more than the upper half. He has cut down on his cutter usage, although it's still an effective pitch as batters hit just .212 against it.
His curveball has become a two-strikeout wipeout pitch, with a K rate above 50 percent. He doesn't throw it a lot -- about 10 per game -- but batters hit just .096 against it. Lester's inability to hold runners will be an issue against the Indians, who led the AL in steals. However, Lester is quick to the plate, so while he allowed 28 steals, he also had 13 caught stealing, and baserunners have to be aware of the back pick from catcher David Ross.
When Indians starter Corey Kluber is on the mound: The Cleveland ace has pitched like one so far, allowing just two runs and 13 hits in 18⅓ postseason innings. After starting Game 4 of the ALCS on three days' rest, he'll be starting here on six days' rest. Given the depleted state of the Indians' rotation, manager Terry Francona may also look to start Kluber in Game 4 (and Game 7, if the Series goes that far).
Eno Sarris wrote for ESPN Insider about Kluber's breaking pitch, which batters have a tough time seeing -- some call it a curveball, others a slider. "Kluber's breaking ball has the most horizontal movement of any pitch in baseball. Yes, more than Sergio Romo's Frisbee-like slider, and more than the sliders thrown by Yu Darvish and Adam Ottavino," Eno points out.
It's one of the most effective pitches in baseball. Including the playoffs, he throws it about 20 percent of the time, although he has increased the rate to 30 percent in the postseason (in part because the Blue Jays had so many right-handed batters). Right-handed batters have hit .079 against it with three extra-base hits in 128 plate appearances ending with the pitch. Lefties were marginally more successfully, hitting .161 with five extra-base hits in 96 plate appearances.
That means the Cubs will want to attack Kluber's fastball -- right-handers posted an .872 OPS against it and lefties a .761 OPS. It's not as easy as just sitting on fastballs, however; Kluber throws his fastball about 56 percent of the time on first pitches, but that means he throws the curveball or cutter 44 percent of the time. And the Cubs like to work deep counts, so this looks like the ultimate chess match of a great pitcher versus a great lineup. -- Schoenfield
Player in the spotlight
Rajai Davis. The Indians hit just .168 in the ALCS so they'll need offense from somebody other than Francisco Lindor. Davis is guaranteed to start only the Lester games as he's normally platooned, but if he can get on, he's the guy to run on Lester after stealing an AL-leading 43 bases. -- Schoenfield
Did you know ...
Lester could become the 11th pitcher in MLB history to start and win two Game 1s in the World Series, and he'd be the second to do it for two teams (Jack Morris, Tigers and Twins). -- John Fisher, ESPN Stats & Information
What will decide the game Tuesday night
Lester's pitch selection: Lester has been great this postseason by mixing things up, throwing 73 percent fastballs (compared to 60 percent in the regular season). That has accomplished two things:
-- By throwing it more in two-strike counts (61 percent vs. 49 percent in the regular season), he has gotten 10 of his 14 strikeouts (71 percent) with his fastball (he got 42 percent of his strikeouts with his fastball in the regular season).
-- It has kept hitters off his other pitches, going 2-for-23 in at-bats ending with his cutter, curveball and changeup -- ESPN Stats & Info
Francisco Lindor looking away: Lindor has been the Indians' best hitter this postseason, and he's doing all his damage on pitches on the outer half.
The man in blue
Larry Vanover has umpired for 24 years, but this will be his first game behind the plate in a World Series. Vanover calls strikes at a less frequent rate than almost all of his peers. He will present a challenge to both batteries.
Relative to other umps, Vanover doesn't often call high strikes (which Indians catcher Roberto Perez excels at getting) for right-handed pitchers. He also doesn't often call outside-corner strikes on righty hitters when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound (Cubs catcher Ross excels at getting the outside corner for Lester). Lester gave up five runs in three innings in one start with Vanover as plate umpire this season (against the Pirates on July 9). But Lester allowed only three runs in 19 innings in three regular-season starts with Vanover prior to that. Kluber has a 4.50 ERA in two starts with Vanover umping, the last coming in 2015. -- Mark Simon, ESPN Stats & Info
World Series betting guide
Cleveland Indians (+180) vs. Chicago Cubs (-210)
Game 1 PickCenter: 51 percent picking Cubs
Joe Peta: In every sports column across the country you'll see references to either "first time in 108 years" or "first time in 68 years" representing, of course, the World Series-winning droughts for the Cubs and Indians, respectively. But on these pages, it's the chase for a "once-in-a-512 year" occurrence that we're focused on; that's the odds of randomly picking the winner of all nine MLB postseason series. And like a pitcher taking the mound with one inning left to complete a perfect game, I'm eight-ninths of the way there.
Of course, the results of all of the 2016 series weren't coin flips -- not with the Cubs laying in excess of -200 in both the National League Division Series and NLCS. However, all three of the American League series following the wild-card round featured underdog winners, and if you take the midpoint of each series line played this year, the odds of getting this far without a miss are nearly 1-in-170. So it's not quite the 1-in-256 chance of randomly getting the first eight series correct in 2016, but it's still a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence for a handicapper. Click here for more
Choosing sides: Who will win?
Not only has Lester been outstanding in every meaningful game since the All-Star break, but this biggest of stages won't daze him one bit. Not his first rodeo. Yeah, the Indians will be aggressive on the basepaths if they can, but few teams have been able to string enough hits together for those tactics to matter. The Cubs will jump out to a good start to nullify the leverage of the Shaw-Otero-Miller-Allen closing crew and win Game 1 -- Bradford Doolittle
The Cubs may win the series but lose Game 1. The Indians aren't nearly as vulnerable to left-handed pitching as the Cubs' two previous opponents were -- Cleveland was 31-20 against lefty starters during the regular season and ranked sixth in baseball against them. Plus, the Indians' running game is in play against Lester. But the Cubs win a close game. -- Jesse Rogers
The Indians will take Game 1 as Kluber will pitch a strong six innings before handing off to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, who will finish off the win. -- Andrew Marchand
Where the series stands
Because Trevor Bauer, with his injured finger, is slated to start Game 2 -- and given the unknown that presents -- this feels more like a must-win game for the Indians than for the Cubs. Plus, you hate to start with a loss at home and lose that home-field advantage card in the first game. -- Schoenfield