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UFC title matchup projections: Our data model takes on Edwards-Muhammad and O'Malley-Dvalishvili

In March 2021, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad fought to a no contest due to an accidental eye poke. At UFC 303, a rematch will be for the middleweight title. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

What do the analytics say about upcoming championship fights like the two on the marquee at UFC 304? Should a grappler such as Belal Muhammad be considered a favorite against a striker such as Leon Edwards? ​​Does a rematch hurt or help a current champion Tom Aspinall?

Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view. Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup for the incumbent champ.

These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight. They assess relative favorability, running from the riskiest to the best matchup.

Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at the UFC title fights currently scheduled, along with recently booked UFC 306 main event between bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.

Editor's note: All odds are courtesy of ESPN BET.


Confirmed UFC title bouts

Interim heavyweight title: Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Curtis Blaydes 2, UFC 304 on July 27