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UFC 209 Cheat Sheet: Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem

Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem face off on Saturday night in Las Vegas in a pivotal heavyweight bout. Getty Images

When UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson first met at UFC 205 on Nov. 12, the result was just the second draw in modern UFC title fight history.

And although Woodley initially expressed interest in moving on from Thompson, the two will run it back this Saturday, at UFC 209 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This rivalry, after all, needs closure.

Also of note: The term "co-headliner" is often used in MMA, even when it's really little more than simply the second-to-last fight of the night. But at UFC 209, we'll get a legitimate co-headliner when Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson meet for the interim lightweight title.

Yes, Irish superstar and reigning lightweight champion Conor McGregor looms large, but Nurmagomedov and Ferguson have a legitimate claim to the title of best lightweight in the world. This is one of the top matchups the UFC roster can currently produce, period.

ESPN.com is here to break down everything you need to know about UFC 209 with its latest edition of Cheat Sheets.


Alistair Overeem (41-15) vs. Mark Hunt (12-10-1), heavyweight Odds: Overeem -145; Hunt +125

"In general, heavyweight MMA is a 50-50 coin toss"

In the latest edition of Alistair Overeem's "The Reem" documentary, he offered a potentially sobering description of his chances in any fight.

"Every fight, honest to say, in this division, at this level is a toss-up," Overeem said. "It's a 50-50 chance."

It's no secret a heavyweight MMA fight can turn on its head quicker than those in lighter weight classes. These are 265-pound men, wearing small gloves. Mistakes are exponentially more costly in this division.

But to boil it down to a 50-50 chance? After the amount of physical and mental preparations these guys go through, can that really be the case? In Overeem's estimation, it is.

"Maybe 51-49," said Overeem, a 17-year MMA veteran. "This level of competition is extremely high. Everybody is trained. Everybody has a game plan. Everybody has a nutritionist. Everybody has everything. It's here that you realize, as people, we're all equal. The differences are not that big. It really is: Do you have a lucky day or not?

"There is some skill difference, but in general, it's a 50-50 coin toss. One mistake, your winning streak is over and you've got to start over again. But you have to be optimistic in life, and I find that it's also beautiful, because if things are too predictable, that sucks, too, right?"

Overeem's last fight, a first-round knockout loss to defending UFC champion Stipe Miocic in Cleveland, was certainly unpredictable. He dropped Miocic in the opening minute of the title fight and nearly sank in a guillotine choke, only to be knocked unconscious minutes later.

Following that loss, Overeem took time in his native Holland as well as in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo and Thailand, among others, to regroup. Despite the loss, he remains close to title contention. Perhaps just one or two coin tosses, including Saturday against Hunt, will have him back in a championship fight.

Hunt says no awkwardness, despite active lawsuit against UFC

It's highly likely Hunt will cross paths, publicly, with UFC president Dana White on Friday during the UFC 209 ceremonial weigh-ins. And he intends to shake White's hand.

That small gesture in and of itself could be newsworthy, considering Hunt is currently involved in an active lawsuit against White in Nevada court.

"I'll shake his hand, no big deal to me," Hunt said. "I have to do this. What else am I supposed to do? I've voiced my opinion about what's unfair, and is anything being done? No."

In January, Hunt filed a civil suit against White, Brock Lesnar and the UFC, alleging the parties "obstructed fair competition for their own benefit." Hunt suffered a decision loss to Lesnar at UFC 200 last July, after which it was revealed Lesnar failed multiple drug tests. He was eventually fined $250,000 of a disclosed $2.5 million payday.

Just this week, attorneys representing White and the UFC filed a motion to dismiss Hunt's lawsuit. It makes for an unprecedented fight-week atmosphere in which the promotion is expected to market Hunt's fight against Overeem while also battling him in court.

Speaking to ESPN.com, Hunt maintained he doesn't feel awkward despite the circumstances but will continue to get his point across in interviews all week.

"I'm excited to be here, but I'm very unhappy I have to compete against another annoying cheater," Hunt said of Overeem, who failed a drug test in 2012. "That's all I've been talking about, and it sucks I have to talk about it. Why are these cheaters still here? They shouldn't still be in this company.

"Of course, I told them how I felt about this guy, this steroid user. But I couldn't turn this fight down. I've lost all respect for him. I look forward to cracking his head on Saturday."


Breakdown

When breaking down a fight, it's only natural to study recent performances. That's interesting here, because, frankly, neither of these two looked great their last time out.

When Overeem fought Miocic for the title in September, his reaction to Miocic's offensive pressure was a bit surprising. To see one of the most seasoned strikers on the UFC roster literally turn his back and run away from Miocic, and basically have zero means of escape when Miocic turned up the heat, was very unexpected.

The same can be said for Hunt's three-round performance against Lesnar last July. The fight came on relatively short notice for Hunt, and the threat of Lesnar's wrestling clearly had a big effect on him, but the fight remained upright for five consecutive minutes in the second round, and Hunt never got anything going.

Overeem's cautious approach in recent years should actually play pretty well against Hunt. If Overeem doesn't like what he sees and wants to reset by hopping away from Hunt, there's no way Hunt sprints after him as Miocic did six months ago.

Hunt times his punches well and finishes just about every combination with that lethal right hand, but at age 42, he isn't running down opponents anymore. He'll take the center of the Octagon in this fight and stalk Overeem, but it will probably be at a very calm, measured pace. Other than Hunt's short bursts of offense, this fight might take place at whatever range Overeem chooses to set.

Defending the takedown won't be as crucial for Hunt this time, as opposed to in his last fight, but he'll still want to avoid being on his back. Overeem isn't going to drop low and shoot through Hunt's ankles, but he will hit an outside trip from the clinch if Hunt isn't careful. Any Overeem takedown is a bad thing, indeed, for Hunt.

Prediction: Overeem via TKO, second round


You make the call: