With less than a week to go before UFC 223, news broke Sunday that Tony Ferguson would be unable to compete in the main event due to a leg injury. The promotion moved quickly and tabbed featherweight champion Max Holloway to fill in against Khabib Nurmagomedov in the lightweight championship bout. The new headliner features two of the best lighter weight fighters on the planet, competitors with very different and distinct styles that create an intriguing stylistic matchup.
The following statistical categories show those key differences, which might end up being the difference on Saturday.
Striking differential
When it comes to striking differential (i.e. significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute), Nurmagomedov stands apart in the lightweight division. Among ranked lightweights with at least three UFC fights, he has the best striking differential. At +2.59, he is well ahead of Evan Dunham, who has the second-highest rate at +1.95. The average for eligible lightweights is only +0.87. Holloway's UFC career striking differential is well above that average, but at +2.30, he still lags behind Nurmagomedov.
While Nurmagomedov lands a respectable 4.11 significant strikes per minute, he sets himself apart from his contemporaries with his striking defense. He absorbs only 1.52 significant strikes per minute, by far the tops among ranked lightweights. Michael Chiesa absorbs a full strike more on a per-minute basis (2.52) and still has the second-best rate. Holloway lands at a better rate (6.20 SLpM) but absorbs many more strikes (3.90 SApM). While Nurmagomedov forces opponents into positions where it is hard to land strikes, Holloway is more than willing to engage on even terrain. If Nurmagomedov is able to impose his will in this fight, in terms of position, he will be the one landing strikes while evading blows from Holloway.
Standing striking
While Nurmagomedov dominates the field in terms of striking differential, his striking skill is heavily dependent on position. In terms of standing striking, Holloway has a notable advantage. In his UFC bouts, 89 percent of Holloway's landed significant strikes have come on the feet. By contrast, only 36 percent of Nurmagomedov's landed significant strikes have come in the standing position. "The Eagle" also absorbs most of his damage while on the feet: Ninety-seven percent of the significant strikes he has absorbed in the UFC have come either at distance or in the clinch. It would be a disservice to Nurmagomedov and a cliché to call this a "striker vs. wrestler" match, but if this turns into a battle of standing strikes, Holloway should be able to pick apart his opponent.
Ground striking
Striking on the ground is an essential element of Nurmagomedov's game, and the degree of his success in that position has been astounding. Nurmagomedov has outlanded his opponents 289-5 in significant ground strikes. Holloway, however, has been able to hold his own defensively on the ground. In 18 UFC fights, he has allowed his opponents to land only 30 significant strikes while grounded. In his past nine UFC fights, he has allowed only one significant strike on the floor. Nurmagomedov obviously will attempt to take this fight to the ground and implement his game. If history holds, he will likely be successful once in that position. Although Holloway has shown an ability to avoid ground strikes, he would be wise to keep the fight on the feet.
Takedowns
Holloway's mission to keep this fight standing might end up being easier said than done. In his UFC career, Nurmagomedov has landed 5.85 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That rate is far and away the best among ranked lightweights. Recent interim title challenger Kevin Lee has the second-best takedown average, at 3.45. Not only does Nurmagomedov do a good job taking opponents down, but he also uses his wrestling to hold controlling positions for long stretches. In his UFC career, 68 percent of his total fight time has been control time, which is defined as time spent in the top position on the ground, standing rear clinch and holding an opponent against the fence. Holloway does have outstanding takedown defense; he has stopped 83 percent of his opponents' attempts. He has only gotten better -- he allowed 16 takedowns in his first nine UFC fights but has not been taken down since 2014. Holloway will need to show that strong defensive wrestling against Nurmagomedov or else will find himself stuck on the bottom absorbing strikes.