After a nearly two-year absence from the UFC, Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return Saturday against lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. While the two have a personal history that will likely pique the interest of fans, the stylistic matchup is equally compelling. McGregor is a powerful striker who can finish fights in the standing position, while Nurmagomedov is a takedown master able to grind away opponents on the ground.
The following is a breakdown of statistical categories that highlight those differences, which could end up being the deciding factor at UFC 229.
Striking differential
On a basic level, the goal of striking is landing more than your opponent lands. In this sense, both McGregor and Nurmagomedov excel. FightMetric uses striking differential as a quick way to demonstrate a striker's overall effectiveness. The stat measures the number of significant strikes landed minus the number of significant strikes absorbed on a per-minute basis.
Nurmagomedov dominates in terms of this metric. His rate, +2.79, is far and away the highest among ranked lightweights. Dustin Poirier currently holds the second-best rate, and he is nearly a full strike behind at 1.90. McGregor has the fifth-best striking differential at 1.27.
Nurmagomedov sets himself apart from the rest of the division with his striking defense. In terms of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), "The Eagle" is right around the average for ranked lightweights. So far in his UFC career, he has landed 4.34 per minute, while the average is 4.37. However, in terms of significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), Nurmagomedov is well below the average. He absorbs 1.55 per minute, while the average is 3.72. On the other hand, McGregor is much less interested in defense. During his UFC run, he has allowed his opponents to land 4.55 significant strikes per minute, which is the second-worst rate among ranked lightweights.
During his UFC run, Nurmagomedov has statistically dominated his opponents in terms of striking. If that trend continues against McGregor, he will be able to pick up the victory in the most high-profile fight of his career.
Ground striking
Ground striking is the lifeblood of Nurmagomedov's fighting style. During his UFC career, 55 percent of his landed significant strikes have come on the ground. Prior to his last fight against Al Iaquinta, which uncharacteristically featured long periods of standing striking, he had landed 63 percent of his significant strikes while on the ground. While the champion lands the majority of his strikes on the floor, he also does not allow his opponent to land while on the ground. Of all the significant strikes Nurmagomedov has absorbed in the UFC, only 2 percent have come on the ground.
Although avoiding the ground-striking onslaught of Nurmagomedov is easier said than done, McGregor has not absorbed very many significant strikes on the ground. During his UFC career, only 6 percent of his absorbed strikes have come on the ground.
The key to Nurmagomedov's victory will be his ability to land ground strikes while avoiding strikes from McGregor. If he is able to implement this game plan, he should be able to handily take a decision or stop the fight.
Wrestling/grappling
In order to implement his vaunted ground-striking attack, Nurmagomedov will need to get the fight to the floor. Luckily for him, he is one of the most gifted takedown artists currently competing in the UFC. During his UFC career, he has averaged 5.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is by far the highest among ranked lightweights. In his fourth UFC fight, he set the record for most takedowns landed in a fight with 21 against Abel Trujillo.
Not only is Nurmagomedov proficient at scoring takedowns, but he is also a skilled grappler from the top position. So far, he has completed 45 passes or the equivalent of 0.92 passes per takedown. Even though he only lands 43 percent of his takedown attempts, he makes up for that with volume. He is persistent in his pursuit and attempts a staggering 12.1 takedowns per 15 minutes.
McGregor, for his part, is a stout takedown defender. He stops 73 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts, and he has been taken down only six times in his 10-fight UFC career. Four of those takedowns came in his fight against Chad Mendes, which McGregor ultimately won with a second-round knockout. He allowed two passes in that fight but managed to survive. However, his lone UFC loss came via submission after he allowed Nate Diaz to pass to mount at UFC 196.
Whoever is able to win the wrestling exchanges will likely have the upper hand in this fight. At the outset, it looks like Nurmagomedov should have the advantage, but McGregor has a proven track record of imposing a standing fight against his opponent.
Knockdowns
Nurmagomedov may have the advantage in the wrestling department, but McGregor also comes into this fight with a clear advantage. That advantage is knockout power. During his UFC career, he has landed 2.21 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. He has landed at least one knockdown in eight of his 10 fights.
In his last two fights, against Diaz and Eddie Alvarez, he has scored three knockdowns in each. Nurmagomedov has never been knocked down in a UFC fight, but he has scored only two knockdowns of his own. Even if Nurmagomedov's wrestling game is on point, portions of this fight will be spent on the feet. During those moments, McGregor will remain a threat to finish the fight with his striking.