I think there's a two-pronged trick to succeeding in NBA free agency.
First you have to avoid the biggest pitfall of the process, which is to pay someone based on what he's already done as opposed to what he will do. It's easy to err because the player's track record is just that -- a matter of record. Also, the track record matters, because that's all we have when projecting a player. But the future is uncertain.
After that, even when you've arrived at an in-house projection you're comfortable with, you have to deal with the second prong: valuation. Given the scarcity, or lack thereof, of a player's future dossier and other market factors, what will that performance be worth?
All of this makes free agency more than a matter of "who is better?" because you not only need to find the right guy for your roster in terms of on-court fit, but you also have to account for the restrictive nature of a player-acquisition universe governed by the salary cap and luxury-tax limits.
Every dollar overspent is a dollar you can't spend on another player. With that in mind, let's continue our series of "Who's Better: Free-Agency Edition" and compare free agents with similar general profiles. In most cases, it's not difficult to identify which player is "better." Identifying which player teams should actually sign is more nuanced. We'll give it a shot.
We began this series the other day by comparing wings Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton. Today we move on to a battle of the bigs: Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Marc Gasol, C
Last team: Memphis Grizzlies
Season-end age: 30.2
2014-15 WARP (rank): 11.7 (14)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent