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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama has smashed through the supposed "rookie wall," making for a fascinating Rookie of the Year race as of the All-Star break.
The notion of the rookie wall is that first-year players, unaccustomed to the grueling NBA schedule, start to struggle once they pass their smaller totals of games played from shorter prep, collegiate and other pro leagues. Wembanyama matched the 34 games he played in the French Pro A regular season on Jan. 15, just before our last rookie rankings. Since then, all Wembanyama has done is average 22.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 3.2 blocks per game.
It's not just Wemby. Although early Rookie of the Year front-runner Chet Holmgren has seen his scoring drop over the course of the season, as a whole, the league's first-year players are surging. Among the 20 rookies who have played the most minutes this season, January was their best month in minutes per game and game score per 36 minutes -- until February, when they've surpassed both marks again.
Has Wembanyama done enough to take over the top spot in our rookie rankings? All season, ESPN's Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton will be checking in on first-year players -- including Holmgren, who is eligible for Rookie of the Year after missing his first season in the NBA because of injury -- and ranking their top 10.