There are plenty of different ways to build a great NBA team.
Some, such as the early-2000s Dallas Mavericks with Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley and Steve Nash, place their primary focus on offense -- combining as many talented shooters and scoring threats as possible, with little regard for what happens at the other end of the court. Others, such as the 1990s-era New York Knicks, were built around rugged defenders such as Patrick Ewing and Charles Oakley, rather than an overwhelmingly efficient offense. (Those Knicks ranked among the top five in defensive efficiency nine times in 10 years from 1992-2001, but 19th or worse on offense seven times in the same span.)
Fast-forward to this year and rising to the top of both extremes are the Knicks and Orlando Magic, two teams that halfway through the season have shown their strengths on offense (New York ranks second in the league) and defense (Orlando ranks third).
There's a good argument to be made, however, that it's best to seek balance when assembling an NBA title contender. Historical data backs this up: If we go back to the dawn of the 16-team postseason era in 1984, running a regression model to predict a playoff team's probability of winning the NBA Finals based on its balance during the regular season -- while controlling for its overall point differential per 100 possessions -- we find that its title chances drop if it is better on one side of the ball or the other.
(For instance, a typical championship-caliber team whose offense was 5 points per 100 better than its defense, relative to the league, would be 7 percentage points less likely to win the NBA Finals than a perfectly balanced counterpart with the same differential.)
Why is this? One explanation aligns with the tug-of-war between what NBA shooting coach Marc Campbell calls game theory optimal (GTO) versus fully exploitative play (FEP). Under GTO, a team maximizes its ability to beat many different opponents of different types -- good and bad offenses, defenses, shooting teams, pick-and-roll teams, etc. But the playoffs turn into a chess match of FEP -- where needing to beat one opponent four times in seven games is all that matters. If a team is significantly imbalanced toward one side of the ball or another, NBA coaches and players can quickly focus on weaknesses and exploit them over the course of a playoff series, in a way that wouldn't matter as much during the regular season.
All of which is to say, if a team is off-kilter in one direction or another, it should think about balance before the playoffs begin April 15. Let's dig into the 10 most imbalanced teams in the NBA this season -- five on offense, five on defense -- with an eye on how each could level up its weak side of the ball.
Note: NBA rankings, odds and stats through Tuesday, Jan. 27.
Jump to a team:
Clippers | Knicks | Lakers | Magic | Nuggets
Pacers | Rockets | Suns | Warriors | Wolves
Teams that must level up their defense
New York Knicks (31-16)
Playoff odds: >99%
NBA rank: No. 2 offense | No. 17 defense