It's Tuesday and a spot in the NBL Grand Final is one win away from four teams. It's time to set our eyes firmly on a pair of Wednesday night Game 3s on ESPN.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
ILLAWARRA HAVE MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OF THE GREAT NBL POSTSEASON UPSETS
Peter Hooley: Storyline
You could argue that karma played its part in this series after the missed calls in the clutch of both games so far, but it still doesn't take away from the fact that if the Hawks don't lose that inbounds pass, they'd be in the Championship series right now. Yes, Lual-Acuil had a hold of Clark's jersey but in the end, it was actually a better place to inbound the ball from for Illawarra. If they get that ball to Robinson or Harvey and knock down both free throws, that game is likely over. Hindsight is a beautiful thing and no doubt if they had their time again, you'd have the size of Sam Froling inbounding the ball to the best free-throw shooters. Never-the-less, after the missed Clark travel in Game 2, here we are at the pinnacle of all sports, a final game decider. Which is probably where this series deserves to be.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
There's no question Illawarra botched the end of Game 1. Officiating aside, you can't squander a 16-point lead minutes into the fourth quarter. In Game 2, the Hawks responded, but they also needed some extreme help from United, who had a final minute to forget in regulation. Leading 94-92 with a free-throw to come and just 57 seconds left on the clock, it was a brutal close for Melbourne, with Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Chris Goulding missing free throws, Goulding mistiming a put back attempt and the team inexplicably allowing Davo Hickey to crash the offensive glass with time about to expire. Through two games, I think there is a fair argument to be made that the better team has lost on each occasion.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
Of course, the Hawks could still go ahead and win Game 3 to complete the upset but blowing the opportunity to steal Game 1 could come back to haunt them. It was like it was a back-and-forth affair in that first game and the ball just happened to bounce the other way; it was a 16-point lead with less than seven minutes to play. When teams prepare to face this United team, there's an emphasis on not giving them an inch, because they'll take a mile. Whether it's a mistimed pass, or an eight-second violation, you can't even give United a sniff. The Hawks showed United an opening in Game 1 and Dean Vickerman's team took it. If the Hawks had kept some level of control, they'd probably be in the Championship Series by now. Instead, they've given United another sniff, and, as we know, that's a dangerous proposition.
KEANU PINDER IS THE KEY TO PERTH MAKING THE NBL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
Not only is this a storyline based on what we have seen in the first two games, but it also makes the most sense because of where the consistent offensive output outside of Cotton has come from all season. Pinder has been solid all season long and his ability to tick the scoreboard over takes a lot of pressure off Bryce to produce his usual heroics. Not only that, but his presence to roll hard to the rim also draws a lot of defenders and opens up the floor for spot-up threes. Pinder caused all sorts of havoc in Game 1 and if he can somehow get Magnay in early foul trouble, it really swings this in Perth's favour.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
Pinder's five 3-point makes in Game 1 was a performance completely out of the box. Not once this season had he made more than two in a game, in fact, he had only connected on multiple triples on four occasions all season. While the outlier shooting performance helped Perth win in Game 1, Pinder needs to become the force inside the perimeter we have known him to be. Through two games, he has attempted just seven shots from 2-point range. On the season, he averaged 8.1. Tasmania feels like they have greater depth of offensive firepower across the board, but Pinder can shift that scale with a big night.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
The sentiment is what's a storyline in this instance. Pinder is the head of the snake of the non-Bryce pieces in Perth. The JackJumpers have made it clear with their coverages: they're going to force the ball out of Cotton's hands, so others need to step up and be assertive on the offensive end. In Game 1, Pinder did that, hitting those five threes; they were the shots Scott Roth would've wanted him to take, and so shooting them with confidence was a difference-maker. If the Wildcats have any chance of being successful against how the JackJumpers will defend them, it'll start with Pinder coming out aggressively from the tip.
MELBOURNE AND PERTH WILL BOOK THEIR SPOT IN THE GRAND FINAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Peter Hooley: Headline.
The more I think about these Game 3s, the more I think that not only could there be an upset, but there could be two. Tasmania are riding a wave of momentum and emotion heading into Perth and, if Pinder isn't 100 percent healthy, it could be trouble. The JackJumpers have been in these environments before, and they know what it takes to win a clinching game away from home. All those little things matter in a game of this magnitude. The same could be said for the Hawks as they arrive in Melbourne. Justin Tatum said it's a free swing and he is somewhat right. There is no doubt that all the pressure is on United in this game as the favourites at home, but the emotion of this story from the Hawks cannot be overstated. They haven't just forced a Game 3, they deserve to be there and anything could happen within 40 minutes of basketball. Having said that, I still feel that United will prove too strong in this one and move onto the Championship Series.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
To be clear, Melbourne and Perth should be favourites entering Game 3, due to both home court advantage and overall record across the balance of the season. I don't expect Melbourne to lose back-to-back games for the first time all season, though, perhaps through stubbornness, I can't back away from my opening week prediction of Tassie being a Grand Final team. The returning Marcus Lee from an utterly ridiculous suspension will help ease any foul concerns for Magnay and although series deciders can often be dour and low scoring affairs, I think the winner cracks 100. From an adjustment standpoint, it might be time for Sean Macdonald to start after a superb fourth quarter defensive effort with the impossible task of guarding Bryce Cotton.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
With regard to the first semifinal matchup, United has been the best team in the league all season long, haven't lost back-to-back games, and have home court advantage; the games have been unbelievably tight, but it doesn't make sense to bet against them now. The latter game feels more up in the air. The Wildcats finished the regular season with the better record, but the JackJumpers are probably the best overall team. It seems like the JackJumpers have figured some stuff out against these Wildcats, so it wouldn't be shocking in any way if they're able to win it. Still, it's tough to bet against the team with home court advantage, with the best player in the series: Perth, and Bryce Cotton.