Australian basketball went through a lot in 2024.
There was the devastation of the Boomers falling out of medal contention at the Olympics, while the Opals walked away from Paris with bronze. We saw a record number of Australians on NBA rosters, the NBL's newest franchise winning its first-ever championship, and legends calling time on storied careers.
With an eventful year now in the rearview mirror, it's time to look ahead at what to expect from 2025. Here are things within the Australian basketball space that we're keeping a close eye on; a combination of expectations and hopes for the new year.
Which Australians will hear their name called at the 2025 NBA Draft?
There's a mixture of Australian Next Stars, NBL players, and college athletes who are working toward potentially getting drafted to an NBA team in the middle of 2025. Rocco Zikarsky and Alex Toohey have regularly been mocked in the first round lately, while the likes of Tyrese Proctor, Ben Henshall, Lachlan Olbrich, and Alex Condon are all putting together seasons that would intrigue NBA teams. There's a good chance we see a few of those Australians hear their name called out on draft night in June.
A new Boomers head coach will be named
Who will succeed Brian Goorjian?
It's one of the biggest questions in Australian basketball, and it's still very much up in the air. Goorjian has lobbied for his assistants from the Boomers' most recent Olympic campaign - Matt Nielsen and Adam Caporn - while Dean Vickerman and Trevor Gleeson will likely emerge as other local options. The program, however, could opt to go outside of the Australian talent pool, perhaps tapping an NBA coach or European mind for the job. Basketball Australia will conduct interviews for the position in the middle of December, so we should have an answer early in the new year.
Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels will be eyeing lucrative new contracts
They're the present and future of Australian basketball, and both should be in line for considerable contracts - or contract extensions - in the middle of 2025.
Giddey's rookie deal will come to an end, so he'll be eligible to sign an offer sheet with a team as a restricted free agent; the Chicago Bulls then have the ability to match it, if they wish. He, of course, could also just re-sign with the Bulls. The 22-year-old is averaging 12.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.9 assists in his first season as a Bull, and will be hoping to leverage that into a long-term deal; for him, hopefully north of $25 million a year.
Daniels is in the midst of a breakout season, but he has most notably emerged as one of the NBA's most effective defenders, legitimately putting himself in the conversation for the Defensive Player of the Year award. He's averaging 13.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and a league-leading 3.0 steals per game, and that level of play couldn't have come at a better time, with the 21-year-old eligible to sign an extension over the 2025 offseason. The Atlanta Hawks will likely see Daniels' current trajectory and elite defensive capacity and put forward a substantial extension in front of him come October.
Where will the NBL's next franchise be?
Larry Kestelman has long mentioned wanting to continue expansion in the NBL, but where? A revived team on the Gold Coast was ever so close to the finish line prior to this NBL season, but encountered a speedbump. Darwin was also tracking well, but that fizzled to the point where it doesn't seem like a possibility any time soon. The iron is hot, so there's a sense that expansion really is right around the corner, with the Gold Coast feeling like the most hopeful option, followed by Canberra and a potential second team in Sydney.
An NBL champion will be crowned
As the new year approaches, there's still no overwhelming favourite to win the 2025 NBL Championship. Melbourne United appears to be slowly pulling away with that top spot, but they don't seem invincible. There are still question marks around the Illawarra Hawks, Sydney Kings, and Perth Wildcats, but their respective ceilings are intriguing enough to have them as part of the conversation.
Dash Daniels will make a decision on his playing future
When it comes to the next generation of Australian talent, Dash Daniels is the name that's probably worth keeping the closest eye on. The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks wing Dyson will turn 17 soon, and has a significant decision to make regarding his playing future. The 6'5 point guard has the potential to be a one-and-done type of talent, so then the question becomes: where might that singular season be? He has immense interest from the NBL's Next Stars program, with Melbourne United and the Perth Wildcats among the favourites; though you'd bet on him staying in his home state of Victoria. College is also a legitimate option, and the school that's feeling the hottest right now is LSU. Watch this space on the younger Daniels.
The next phase of Ben Simmons' career will become clearer
What is Simmons moving forward? The Australian was the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, won the NBA's Rookie of the Year award, made three All-Star teams, and leveraged all of that into a well-earned max contract. Well, that contract is coming to an end, and Simmons isn't close to that sort of player anymore since his ongoing back issues. He's diminished significantly as an athlete, and has almost as many turnovers (42) as made field goals (45) this season, where he's averaging 5.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. It'll be fascinating to see what NBA teams see him as. Is he worthy of the mid-level, or is he regarded as a minimum-level player? How much concern is there over his recent injury history? All will become clear in the offseason.
Will some Australian greats retire... or return to the NBL?
All good things must come to an end. The golden generation of Australian Boomers have been hanging up the sneakers one by one - first Andrew Bogut, then Aron Baynes - so who might be next? Joe Ingles is 37 and is in the middle of a one-year deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves, while Patty Mills just turned 36 and is with the Utah Jazz for this season. Neither are in their respective teams' rotations. It's no secret that both are on their last legs, so retirement would be in the offing at some point in the near future. Both Bogut and Baynes opted to return to the NBL before retiring from basketball, so let's hope that's a consideration for Ingles and Mills; NBA minutes don't appear in their future anymore, so why not be the face of an NBL team in Australia?
Could Australia host an NBA game?
This has long been a pipe dream. Would an NBA team really upend their already-hectic preseason schedule to travel all the way to Australia - a substantial trip, with both the physical toll and the time it takes - to go up against an NBL team? Right now, this is purely a hopeful thing, but the NBA has recently had teams play preseason games in Abu Dhabi, China, and Japan, and regular season contests in London and Paris. So, maybe, just maybe, an NBA game happening in Australia in 2025 isn't as much of a fantasy as it seems.
All eyes on Bryce Cotton's free agency
This upcoming NBL Free Agency period will be a big one; think local names like Sam Froling, Sam Waardenburg, and Keanu Pinder. The decision that will be the most title-altering, though, will be whatever Bryce Cotton chooses to do. The four-time MVP is off contract with the Perth Wildcats - with whom he's in his seventh season - and there's real smoke about him seriously considering other options. He very well could return to Perth, but a different NBL team doesn't seem to be off the table, while all eyes will be on the significant amount of money he could attract in Japan.
The Boomers and Opals are in action in Asia Cup competition
We won't have major tournament action for the next few years, but the Australian Boomers and Opals will still be in action over 2025.
First, it'll be the 2025 FIBA Women's Asia Cup in Shenzhen, China, where the Opals will be looking to win the tournament for the first time in the program's history, after winning bronze in 2023. That event takes place from July 13-20.
Then, the Boomers will be in action at the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup, taking place from August 5-17 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The Australian men's national team are back-to-back champions of the Asia Cup, so a threepeat could very well be on the cards.
Let's hope the NBL's takeover of the WNBL is a success
It was welcome news when Wollemi Capital Group Syndicate (WCGS) and the NBL purchased a majority interest in the WNBL, but what will change actually look like? There's reason to think a Kestelman-led operation that transformed the NBL could help the WNBL grow in a similar manner, while the Denholm family has consistently put their money where their mouth is in an endeavour to grow the women's game. Will the league introduce more teams in different cities? Can they mimic the NBL's contract rules to introduce a marquee player of some sort, potentially attracting more talent to the league? The WCGS/NBL consortium takes over the WNBL in April 2025, and the expectation is they'll be on the front foot with addressing any and all concerns.