For Week 4, our panel of NFL Insiders pick over/unders on Mike Clay's stat projections for the four starting rookie quarterbacks -- Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen -- over the rest of the season. We asked Clay to create projections for each QB's passing yards, total touchdowns and interceptions in the 13 remaining games, then had our expects pick "over" or "under" on all of them.
Plus: Which rookie signal-caller is set up best for short-term success, and which is looking better in the long term.
Over/under rest-of-2018 for Baker Mayfield, Browns:
3,321 passing yards, 19 total touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Pat McManamon, Browns reporter: Under, under, under. Let's keep some perspective. DeShone Kizer started 15 games last season and threw for 2,894 yards; Tim Couch started 14 games as a rookie and threw for 2,447. Mayfield will get 13 starts with an offense that wants to run the ball. He was great against the Jets, and he might continue to be great, but topping 3,000 yards in 13 games with a team that wants to run the ball isn't realistic. The 19 touchdowns is close, but in the Browns' first three games they've thrown for three TDs and run for five. Mayfield might change that ratio, but the late-season weather in Cleveland will be in play, too. As for interceptions, one of his strengths is avoiding them (though he saw one dropped against the Jets). That trend should continue.
Domonique Foxworth, The Undefeated senior writer: Under, under, under. For Mayfield to hit those numbers, he would have to average 255 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.9 INTs. That would be almost identical to the 2017 per-game averages for one of the highest-paid veteran quarterbacks in football, Kirk Cousins. At some point Mayfield will be better than Cousins, but I doubt the Browns will ask him to carry the offense. So his stats will suffer.