Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 16's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Which quarterback expected to hit free agency after the season will receive the biggest payday, and which player should be the No. 1 draft pick in PPR-format fantasy leagues in 2019?
What's your top upset pick for Week 16?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Seahawks +2.5 over Chiefs. Seattle's home-field atmosphere and its running game will allow the Seahawks to control the tempo and limit possessions for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, while also creating more efficient passing situations for Russell Wilson. I'm calling for an old-school approach for the Seahawks to grab the upset win.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Raiders +2.5 over Broncos. This week's Monday-night game could be the last game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. I have no idea what that means for the atmosphere, as there is no outer limit on either side of the possibility spectrum. I do know the Broncos are cooked, that at last check they were just about out of cornerbacks and receivers, that Derek Carr is playing well and that Jon Gruden will find a way to get his crew fired up about this weirdly historic event.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Falcons +2.5 over Panthers. I don't know if it's because of an injury or because of deficiencies on the offensive line (or both), but Cam Newton hasn't been himself lately. I'm not giving the Falcons' defense too much credit for throttling Arizona, but they did look slightly better this week, and Julio Jones & Co. could easily outscore the Panthers.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Seahawks +2.5 over Chiefs. This could be a really rough game for a not-so-great Seattle defense, but the Seahawks can pull the upset with the combination of their crowd noise, running game and an opportunistic Russell Wilson. The Chiefs are 2-2 in their past four, and those games were decided by a total of 14 points.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Falcons +2.5 over Panthers. This doesn't feel like going out that far on a limb after the Falcons defeated the Panthers earlier this season (31-24 in Week 2), but that may as well have been years ago given how much has changed since then. That being said, the Falcons put together their most complete effort in close to a month and a half in Week 15 and should be able to carry that over into another win over a team that has had notable struggles slowing down Jones.
Which QB likely on the open market this March will get the most guaranteed money, and from which team?
Bowen: Teddy Bridgewater, Jaguars. I'm going with the upside of Bridgewater when I look at this group of QBs. Invest in a quarterback with a higher ceiling at a position that must be upgraded in Jacksonville.
Graziano: Teddy Bridgewater, Giants. He's still only 26, which means he probably can secure a longer deal than any of the other guys can. Everybody who has played with him seems to like him, and he still comes with some level of untapped promise. I know he hasn't played this year, but the way some other guys did play this year might help Teddy's case. At least he didn't do anything to hurt anyone's opinion of his abilities.
Kimes: Joe Flacco, Jaguars. I would prefer that the Jaguars spring for Bridgewater, but they reportedly passed on the young quarterback earlier this year. So it seems more likely to me that they'll go with what they perceive to be a safe option in Flacco, even though he had an underwhelming passer rating of 84.2 (currently ranked 27th in the NFL) and was averaging 6.5 yards per attempt (30th) before going down with an injury this season.
Sando: Joe Flacco, Jaguars. Jacksonville basically got Blake Bortles and Andrew Norwell for what it would have cost to land Kirk Cousins. The team should feel pretty desperate at the position this coming offseason. Flacco would presumably command more guaranteed money than a player with Bridgewater's injury history. This is a difficult projection to make without knowing the coaching landscape for 2019, which is a huge variable.
Yates: Nick Foles, Giants. The NFL is very much a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, and Foles stands to benefit from that. He's the reigning Super Bowl MVP and is set to start again for the Eagles this weekend after a strong Week 15 showing against the Rams. If he can propel the Eagles back into the playoffs, he'll be coveted in a major way this offseason.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Matt Breida, RB, 49ers. Breida logged 23 touches for 97 total yards in San Francisco's Week 15 upset win over the Seahawks. With the Bears' defense on tap in Week 16, however, managers need to find a better RB2 option. The Bears rank No. 3 against the run and held Todd Gurley II to only 28 yards rushing on 11 carries back in Week 14. That front seven is nasty.
Graziano: Jared Goff, QB, Rams. The Rams are on the road, the offense hasn't looked like its usual unstoppable self the past couple of weeks and Arizona went into Week 15 allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. I imagine the Rams won't need 30 points to win this game; they can do it by leaning on Gurley.
Kimes: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. The Ravens' rookie quarterback has progressed as a passer and continues to produce on the ground, but he has done it mostly against subpar defenses; that changes this Sunday when Baltimore takes on the Chargers. I could see him struggling with turnovers if he falls behind.
Sando: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. The Ravens will try to shorten the game with ball-control tactics, and the Chargers could be willing to play along. I'm envisioning a lower-scoring game that could mean less production from Rivers.
Yates: Dante Pettis, WR, 49ers. I'm stoked about the progress of Pettis, who is on a four-game streak of double-digit fantasy points, including four touchdowns. That being said, Pettis now faces the most feared defense in the NFL. I'm just doing my best to avoid starting any player who has to face Chicago in fantasy football the rest of this season.
The 2018 fantasy season is almost over, so let's help out fantasy players for next year. Who should be the No. 1 pick in PPR leagues in 2019?
Bowen: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. Gurley is the safe choice here, and we know that. But let's not sleep on the numbers Barkley put up in his rookie season. Heading into Week 16, Barkley has posted 13 total touchdowns, with 1,124 yards on the ground and 629 yards receiving on 78 grabs. The versatility is there to rack up fantasy points in PPR formats, and the home-run talent pops. This season, Barkley has registered a total of 23 explosive plays (runs of 15 yards or more and receptions of 20 yards or more). He's a threat to flip the field any time he touches the ball.
Graziano: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. Gurley is the easy (and maybe correct) answer. But expecting three straight 20-touchdown seasons is a little tough for me. I see McCaffrey as an ascendant two-way superstar who should continue to be the focal point of Carolina's offense no matter what coaching changes sweep through Charlotte this offseason.
Kimes: Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants. Barkley has the second-most fantasy points of any back this year behind Gurley. Now imagine how much more he could produce behind an improved offensive line. (There's no guaranteeing that the Giants' line will improve, of course, but here's hoping.)
Sando: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. I might lean toward Gurley if the Panthers turn over their coaching staff. Norv Turner has been very good for McCaffrey, as anticipated.
Yates: Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. For two straight years, he has been the best player in fantasy football (he's on pace to be for this season), and he plays the most important position given the lack of reliable options at running back. He's a touchdown machine who can score as a runner or receiver.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 16.
Bowen: Robert Foster, WR, Bills. Over the past five games, Foster has caught 17 of 24 targets for 434 yards with two scores. That's good for 25.76 yards per catch. With 4.4 speed to pair with his 6-foot-2 frame, the undrafted rookie out of Alabama has flashed ability to make plays down the field. And rookie QB Josh Allen can sling it. With a Week 16 matchup versus the Patriots, Foster is an upside play as a WR3 in deeper leagues.
Graziano: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. The Bengals are among the most permissive teams for opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and the Browns are on a confident roll. Cleveland will be at home with an extra day of rest coming off a Saturday game. The Browns actually enter Week 16 with a sliver of a chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland is feeling good right now, and Cincinnati is toast. I see a big day for Baker.
Kimes: Mike Davis, RB, Seahawks. With the Chiefs coming to town, I expect the Seahawks to stick with their run-heavy scheme, using Chris Carson as their primary back and Davis as a secondary option. Considering Kansas City has given up the second-most points to running backs this season, both backs should be viable starting options.
Sando: Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers. Aaron Jones' injury pushed Williams into the lineup against Chicago and could keep him in a prominent role against the Jets, who have given up a couple higher-scoring games to Sony Michel and LeSean McCoy.
Yates: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. It's four straight games that Allen has registered at least 18.0 points (with two games above 25 points), and while it isn't always pretty, it's clear that he has the avenues to find fantasy relevance. The Bills don't lean heavily on Allen for designed runs, but he gets plenty of work as a scrambler, with 40 carries over the past four games and a rushing touchdown in three of four.