We're just over halfway through the 2023 NFL season, and fans are wondering whether their favorite team will make the playoffs. Sure, the standings tell us a lot, but they don't tell the whole story. Fluky wins, tough breaks, strength of schedule, tiebreakers, quarterback injuries -- they all affect a team's chances at a playoff berth.
I've broken down all 32 teams into eight playoff tiers -- from obvious Super Bowl contenders to the completely hopeless teams looking toward next season -- based on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), future strength of schedule, past performance metrics, future lines and a touch of gut feel.
Teams are organized within each tier based on their chances to make the playoffs, which were updated after Sunday's games. Stats are updated through Thursday night's game, unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Tier 1: The true Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 99%
Chances to win the NFC East: 83%