Jayden Daniels is one game away from going where no rookie quarterback has gone before. With a Commanders win over the Eagles on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, he would become the first rookie passer in league history to lead his team to a Super Bowl. Beating Philadelphia for the second time in six weeks and advancing to the title game would be the latest in a series of stunning accomplishments. It would also raise a question I'm not sure even the most optimistic of Washington fans would have expected to ask after the 2024 season:
Is Daniels having the best rookie season in NFL history, regardless of position?
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While his season isn't yet complete, it's possible to compare the No. 2 pick to other great rookies from the past, many of whom were already on vacation by the time the NFL got down to the final four teams in the playoff bracket. There's a significant element of subjectivity in deciding where he stands, but there are a few objective performance measures to help gauge that.
Let's break all that down. I'll compare Daniels to great rookies from previous years, contextualize what has made this season so impressive and try to somehow decide where he ranks among the tens of thousands of other rookies in NFL history. All of that has to start somewhere, and I'll begin by comparing him to the best rookie quarterbacks ever.
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The best rookie QB seasons ever
Which rookies have won awards?
Which rookies have had team success?
Should Daniels get extra credit?
So ... where does Daniels rank?
How Daniels stacks up vs. other rookie QBs
Daniels has been remarkably productive to start his career. During the regular season, he completed 69% of his passes, with 25 touchdowns against nine picks. His 70.5 Total QBR ranked fourth in the league and first among NFC signal-callers. He posted a passer rating of 100.1, which ranked 11th.
ESPN has QBR data stretching back through 2007. Since then, Daniels' 70.5 ranks third among rookies, trailing only Dak Prescott in 2016 (77.6) and Russell Wilson in 2012 (74.8). It seems fair to argue that Prescott and Wilson had more help than Daniels, as they shared backfields with Ezekiel Elliott and Marshawn Lynch, respectively, who ran for a combined 3,221 yards during their quarterbacks' rookie seasons. Daniels led the Commanders in rushing himself, with a figure that would have been even higher if a midseason rib injury hadn't led the team to lessen his workload.